1 October estimate; the December estimate is given under XIX, Agricultural Statistics. months of 1911, 1910 and 1909. In | Securities Listed" indicate the activity keeping with the aforementioned factors, new incorporations late in the year were taking place at only about one-third the rate of the corresponding period of 1912. In the iron and steel business the leading plants were reported late in the year to be operating at only about four-fifths of their capacity, and the orders for unfilled tonnage of the U. S. Steel Corporation declined about 28 per cent. since the beginning of the year. In contrast to this situation, the 1912 output was constantly on the increase, and toward the close of that year the orders coming in were equal to the producing capacity of the plants. Building operations for the first nine months showed a decline of six per cent. compared with 1912. In fact, all the leading divisions of our business activity, as discussed in the following pages, showed a marked decline with the exception of our foreign trade and the copper industry. These two fields are notable exceptions, the first showing a tremendous increase, and the last having just about held its 1912 position; but as regards the copper situation, it should be noted, as will be explained later, that the heavy demand for the metal was largely due to the heavy export traffic. Statistics. In the tables on the following pages is presented a summary of business conditions for the first nine months of 1913 in contrast with those of 1912, as shown by those indices which are generally accepted as the truest barometers of industry and trade. The tables relating to stock market activity, including summaries of "Shares of Stocks and Bonds Sold," "Average Security Prices," and "New or lack of activity during the year in the security market and the condition of the investment demand. The tables relating to "Loans and Deposits of the New York Clearing_House Banks" and "Domestic and Foreign Money Rates" furnish an idea of the conditions surrounding the money market during 1913; while the tables on "Bank Clearings," "Foreign Trade," "Crop Production," "Idle Cars," "Production of Iron and Copper," "Building Construction," and "Business Failures" will serve to furnish a view of the year's activity in mercantile and manufacturing lines. For purposes of comparison, the data for these barometric indices are given by months for the years 1912 and 1913, and to make possible a further comparison, the totals for the several items, wherever possible, are also given for the years 1909, 1910 and 1911.1 AGRICULTURE statistics of the United States for the Crop Production. The grain-crop year 1913, as indicated by the report of the Department of Agriculture on Oct. 1, disclosed a highly unfavorable showing as compared with the large crop of 1912. In regard to the five leading cereals, the estimated yield for 1913, as indicated by the accompanying table, shows a total of only 4,456,000,000 bu., as compared with 5,533.000,000 bu. in 1912, a decrease of 1,077,000,000 bu., or over 19 per cent. 1 The author is indebted for many of tables to the monthly compilations prethe statistics presented in the following pared from authentic sources by RW. Babson, and issued periodically in "Babson's Desk Sheet of Tables on Barometric Figures for Business Conditions." Corn, the nation's leading crop, suffered the largest decline, 752,000,000 bu., and represented a general average on Oct. 1 of 65.3, against 82.2 a year before, and a 10-year average of 80.6. On the basis of the October statement the average yield per acre for the whole country was estimated at 22.2 bu., or the lowest since 1901, while the total estimated yield is the lowest since 1903. Wheat, on the other hand, was the one important cereal which in a measure helped to overcome the shortage in the corn crop, the total yield of spring and winter wheat combined being estimated at 753,233,000 bu., or 5,000,000 bu. in excess of the previous largest crop (1901) and 23 million bu. in excess of 1912. This splendid showing was occasioned by the record yield of winter wheat, this crop amounting to 510,000,000 bu., or 110 millions in excess of 1912. Prices of Staple Agricultural Products.-The large decrease in the yield of practically all the leading agricultural products, except wheat and cotton, has had a material effect upon current market quotations. At the beginning of November, December corn was quoted at 70% cents, compared with 52% cents a year before, and a previous November high of 64.7 cents in 1911. New York December cotton was quoted at 13.58 cents, compared with 11.17 cents a year before, and a previous November high of 15.66 cents in 1909. In the case of wheat, however, where the crop proved a bountiful one, the Chicago December quotation was only 85 cents, compared with 914 cents a year before, and a previous November high of $1.09% in 1909. (See also XIX, Agriculture.) IRON AND STEEL TRADE totaled as All the remaining important agricultural crops present a showing Iron Production. The improvement which, while not as bad as in the case in iron production during 1912, as of corn, is far from satisfactory. The compared with 1911, continued during oat yield was estimated at 1,122,000,- the first five months of 1913, the 000 bu., or 296,000,000 bu. below the production for May reaching 2,822,000 yield of 1912; while in the case of tons, or more than in any month durbarley the yield was 173,000,000 bu., ing the preceding two years. For the as compared with 224,000,000 in the first nine months of 1913 the producpreceding year. The condition of other tion 23,896,000 tons, leading agricultural products is indi- against 21,274,000 tons for the correcated by the following data: for po-sponding months of 1912, a substantatoes the estimated yield was placed tial increase. After May, however, at 317,278,000 bu., as compared with the 1913 monthly production began 420,647,000 bu. in 1912; for hay, 63,- to decline rapidly. The last three 000,000 tons, as compared with 73,- months of 1912, as indicated in the 000,000 tons in 1912; for tobacco, the accompanying table, showed considerOctober condition was given at 61, as ably higher totals than those given contrasted with a 1912 average of 86 for the months of June to September and a 10-year average of 83; for flax of 1913, so that, assuming the exseed, a yield of 21,000,000 bu., against pected further curtailment of produc29,000,000 bu. in 1912. tion during the last three months of the year, the final record for 1913 will show only a moderate increase in pig iron production over the preceding year. In June the production fell to 2,628,000 tons, as compared with 2,822,000 tons in May, in July to 2,560,000 tons, and in September to 2,505,000 tons. This tendency toward lower pig-iron production is entirely in keeping with the declining tendency to be noted for 1913 in other lines of business which are regarded as barometers of trade. Moreover, at the close of October the price of pig iron No. 1X was quoted at $16.38, as compared with $18.50 a Cotton Production.-With regard to cotton also, the showing was somewhat poorer than in 1912, the average condition of the crop on Sept. 25 having been placed by the Department of Agriculture at 64.1 of normal. On the basis of the Government's estimated acreage of 35,622,000 acres, the September expectancy of yield was 12,993,000 bales, as compared with 13,820,000 bales in 1912, or an amount which the leading authorities declare to be an insufficient supply to maintain the rate of consumption of the past two years. year before and a previous November | ration was operating at about 80 per high of $19.25 in 1909. The Steel Trade.-Toward the close of 1912 press accounts dealing with the steel business referred to the congested condition of the steel mills, and the orders of the unfilled tonnage of the U. S. Steel Corporation during that year showed an increase for each successive month, with but one exception. The expected continuation of the improving tendency of the steel trade referred to in the last issue of the YEAR BOOK (p. 314), however, fell far short of realization. Instead, the financial press at the close of October, 1913, reported that the Steel Corpo cent. of its capacity. Furthermore, the record of unfilled orders of the Steel Corporation showed a constant decline from the beginning of the year, each month showing a smaller volume of unfilled orders on the books of the Corporation than the preceding month. Thus, while at the close of December, 1912, the unfilled orders amounted to 7,932,164 tons, or the highest point of that year, there occurred a decline of about 28 per cent. during the first nine months of 1913, the unfilled orders at the close of September, 1913, standing at only 5,003,785 tons, a decline in nine months of 2,929,000 tons. COPPER TRADE The production of copper for the first nine months of 1913 as reported in the "Copper Producers' Statement," totaled 1,206 million pounds, as compared with 1,155 million pounds in 1912 for the same period. Meanwhile, the visible supply of copper for the United States, which, as explained in the YEAR BOOK for 1912 (p. 315), declined from 155 million pounds in June, 1911, to 89 million in January, 1912, and 47 million pounds in September, 1912, decreased to the exceptionally low figure of 29,793,000 lb. by October, 1913. It should be stated, however, that from the low figure of 1912 the visible supply had increased to 122,302,000 lb. in March, 1913, and that since that time there has been a reduction of the visible supply by about three-fourths. Increased domestic consumption and large exports are responsible for this favorable showing, and in particular the exports, which, according to the Journal of Commerce, aggregated during the first nine months of 1913, exclusive of shipments to Canada which are included in domestic deliveries, "over 293 thousand tons, or the heaviest in the history of the industry." Despite the increased production and the reduction in the visible supply, the price of the metal has held fairly well, the quotation for electrolytic copper at the beginning of November standing at 16.38 cents, compared with 15.50 a year before and a previous November high of 19.25 cents in 1909. Unlike the year 1912, however, the increased production and the fairly good price for the metal have not produced the favorable effect upon the value of copper shares that was Of the many instructive features revealed by a detailed examination of the Government's foreign trade returns for 1912-13 the following may be briefly noted: noted in the last issue of the YEAR | amounted to $653,140,750, as comBOOK. Whereas, the average price for pared with $551,057,475 in the pre20 active and representative copper ceding year. (See also XXII, Exshares was 48.7 in October, 1912, this ternal Commerce of the United average declined to 36.9 at the begin- States.) ning of November, 1913, as compared with 80 early in 1907, 28.6 late in 1907, and 60.8 in August 1909. It should be stated, however, that the security market, as is well understood, tends to discount the future, and the severe decline in copper shares, despite the favorable showing of the foregoing statistics of production and price of the metal, is to be attributed in large measure to the general depression of the entire range of stocks noted below. FOREIGN TRADE 1. As in the preceding year the increase in the aggregate value of exports was not to any great extent due to higher prices. Although the export value of cotton was considerably higher than in 1911-12, the prices of other leading items, such as breadstuffs, fruits, hops, leather and manufactures of, wood and manufactures of, and various items among iron and steel manufactures, were lower. 2. Exports showed a marked expansion in almost all classes of articles, with the notable exception of cotton, which shows a decrease because of the smaller available supply owing to the decline in American production of some two million bales from the preceding year's crop. Iron and steel manufactures show a very large increase of approximately 50 million dollars on top of a 37 million dollar gain in the year 1911-12. Shipments of breadstuffs amounted to 210 millions, as compared with 124 millions in the preceding year, although the values per unit did not in any case greatly exceed those of the year previous. Although the foreign trade returns for the year ending June 30, 1912, showed an enormous increase over 1911 in both exports and imports (A. Y. B., 1912, p. 315), the year ending June 30, 1913, showed imports and exports of even much greater proportions. In only two months of the twelve did our exports not exceed in value those of the corresponding months of 1911-12, and imports were also well above those of the preceding year except in the last four months. Imports and exports of merchandise combined aggregated for the fiscal year 1912-13 4,278 million dollars, or 421 millions in excess of 1911-12, and 702 millions in excess of 1910-11. Exports of merchandise | totaled $2,465,761,910, or more than 261 millions over those of 1911-12, whereas those of 1911-12 were larger than those in 1910-11 by 155 millions, and the latter year in turn showed an increase of 270 millions over the preceding year. Despite the general halt in other lines of business, it is apparent that the United States is rapidly extending its efforts toward the acquisition of foreign markets for its products. This becomes apparent when it is recalled that since 18991900 our exports have nearly doubled and our imports considerably more than doubled. Imports of merchandise for 1912-13 amounted to $1,812,621,160, or 159 millions over those of 1911-12. For the year the balance of merchandise exports over imports millions. 3. Comparatively few import items showed notable declines. On the other hand, conspicuous gains over 1911-12 occurred in art works, diamonds and precious stones, flax and other fibers and manufactures thereof, copper and manufactures of, silk and manufactures of chemicals, hides and leather, and vegetable oils. 4. The marked increase of our trade with Canada was an important feature. Exports to that country amounted to approximately 415 millions in 1912-13, as compared with 329 millions in 1911-12, and imports to 120 millions, as compared with 108 millions the previous year. It is noteworthy that between 1902-03 and 1912-13 our exports to Canada have increased from 123 millions to 415 Jan... $143,586,408 $163,063,438 $202,446,273 $227,032,930] +$58,859,865+$63,969,492 134,188,438] 149,913,918 198,844,326 193,996,942 + 64,655,888 +44,083,024 157,577,038 155,445,498] 205,411,462] 187,426,711 +47,834,424 +31,981.213 162,571,159 146,194,461 179,300,342 199,813,438 +16,729,183 +53,618,977 155,697,886 133,723,713 175,380,058 194,607,422 +19,682,172 + 60,883,709 131,030,797 131,245,877 138,233,742 163,404,916 + 7,202,945 +32,159,039 148,677,738 139,284,570 149,021,133] 160,990,778) + 343,395 21,706,208 154,933,770 137,704,195 167,844,871 187,812,636 +12,911,101+50,108,441 144,862,343] 169,562,757 199,701,652 218,185,451 +54,839,309+ 48,622,694 177,995,830 132,878,896 254,696,985 271,855,054 +76,791,155 +138,976,158 153,134,995 148,594,741 277,898,681 245,645,896 +124,763,686) + 97,050,155 154,095,444 250,315,807 +96,267,363 Feb. April... May. June.. July.... Aug Sept... Oct.. Nov.. Dec.. BUSINESS FAILURES We have pointed out that the month's total exceeds that of last year moderately; the total for the year to date is quite a little less than then and even below 1911. For the nine months of In the YEAR BOOK for 1912 (p. 1913 the prospective outlay at the 144 316) it was explained that the comcities reaches, according to our compilation, slightly over 705 million dollars, mercial failures during the first nine as against 750 millions in 1912 and 718 months of 1912 compared unfavormillions in 1911. Greater New York's ably with those of the year 1911; it figures are 1261⁄2 millions, 1764 millions and 152 millions, respectively, in the must be stated that 1913 during the three years, but the figures for the other same period compared unfavorably cities collectively are a record for the with the showing of 1912. As against period, 583 millions, contrasted with the 11,816 failures for the first nine 573% millions and 565 millions. Twentyfive New England cities show an aggre- months of 1912, reported by R. G. gate loss of 94 million dollars from Dun & Co., the number of failures 1912, which is more than accounted for for the same period in 1913 reached In Boston and vicinity. The "Other Western" division, embracing the coun- 11,712, but the liabilities amounted try west of the Mississippi River excent to $196,746,376, as compared with Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and the states on the Pacific Coast, also makes $153,544,360 the previous year. The a less favorabl exhibit, the loss at 23 showing is particularly bad for the cities reaching four millions. On the later months of the period, R. G. Dun other hand, the 31 municipalities (not & Co. reporting failures in September Including New York) that make up the middle section show 6 million dollars to the number of 1,235, with liabilities Increase, the Middle West (27 citles) of $22,662,694, against 1,167, with 10% millions, the Pacific Coast (13 cities) 6 millions, and the South (25 liabilities of only $13.280.511 in September, 1912, and only 827 for $11, cities) a nominal gain. |