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selected biological endpoints in the evaluation of therapeutic toxic effects. The goal is to establish relationships between tissue levels of the drug and pharmacological effect wherever possible; establishment of the relevance of the pharmacological effect produced in animals to a similar effect in women is a concurrent goal. Proposals for these studies have been received and underwent preliminary review during October 1971.

The interaction of contraceptive steroids with essential dietary nutrients. A number of recent publications have suggested important influences of oral contraceptive drugs on the metabolism of various vitamins and minerals in both humans and animals. Because of the fundamental role of these substances in nutritional biochemistry, such findings may have widespread public importance. During July 1971 a group of experts was convened at NIH and asked to survey the existing body of knowledge on this problem It was judged that present knowledge does not warrant a recommendation for large-scale dietary supplementation at the present time. However, it was recommended that the problem be investigated comprehensively, with emphasis on nutrition surveys to ascertain the prevalence and incidence of these effects in humans and an understanding of the effects observed in animals. A contract program specifically targeted to achieve these objectives is under development.

Medical effects of vasectomy. A program to evaluate whether there are any long-term complications resulting from male sterilization (vasectomy) and to identify the mechanisms by which such complications may occur is now under development. Questions have been raised about possible effect of this procedure on the immunologic system, and research proposals dealing with this issue will be reviewed early in 1972. The emotional response of men to vasectomy must also receive attention. The importance of carefully assessing possible sequelae of vasectomy is exemplified by the dramatic increase in the number of vasectomy operations being performed in the United States as well as throughout the world. Attention will be paid to the development of both epidemiological and laboratory studies of unwanted side effects.

CENTER FOR POPULATION RESEARCH

POPULATION RESEARCH IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

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The 56 studies funded since the beginning of the Behavioral Sciences Program in 1969 include 16 initiated since January 1971. Since the area of population is so broad and the number of experts in the field at the present time is relatively limited, not all of the areas of interest have been covered. Neglected areas of research will be emphasized in the future. In addition, the report and recommendations of The President's Commission on Population Growth and America's Future, due in March 1972, will undoubtedly influence the direction and emphasis of the social science research program.

The Determinants of Fertility

Studies on the determinants of fertility are by far the most numerous. of the 16 studies initiated since January 1971, eleven deal with some aspect of fertility behavior. One study seeks to develop measures of social ttitudes toward marriage and size of family which act as social pressures n individuals. Another, methodologically similar, concerns a way to scertain the basic fertility values prevailing in a population (Terhune). wo others are investigating elements in the socialization process that fluence women's decisions to follow careers and/or marriage, and that ffect their age at marriage and timing of first births (Presser, Mason). elated to these, but addressing a somewhat different aspect, is a study ich is attempting to ascertain traditionalism, conacious intent, and onomic aspirations affecting the process of family formation, age at rriage, and the timing of births (Kammeyer).

ill another study addresses factors influencing fertility decisions and nily size values in a Mexican-American population in the Los Angeles ea (Sabagh). A study is also being made of youths in a city of the United tes and in Puerto Rico to determine the factors related to family size spacing of children (Nuttall). This study will also emphasize the ects upon children themselves of growing up in families of various sizes. tudy relying on already available census data and vital statistics lyzes fertility, mortality, and net migration for the white and nonte populations of the counties of the United States in the years 1950) (Tarver). Using several sets of individual family data for the ced States, another study is attempting to identify the principal social rminants of family size and current fertility patterns in the United es (Schultz). Domestic and productive activities in peasant communities ndonesia, India, and Mexico, and a farming community in the United es are being studied to assess the costs and benefits associated with ing numbers of children in the family, as these may be important ors in making fertility decisions (Nag).

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Since the development of meaningful and researchable questions is crucial, workshops have been held on The Consequences of Population Change in Developed Societies" (June 16-18, 1971), and "The Effects of Population

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Density on Human Behavior" (October 13-15, 1971), and one is planned on "The Causes and Consequences of Fertility Trends in the United States Since World War II."

Recent Research Findings

A study of women in the greater Athens metropolitan area in 1966-67 underscores the importance of motivation or commitment in controlling one's fertility as part of a general pattern of planning--cr not planning--one's life. This study found that a woman's active participation in the labor force diminishes her level of fertility significantly regardless of the degree of work commitment, and high work commitment further diminishes her level of fertility and often encourages her to remain childless, especially If she is college-educated.

study undertaken in a middle class suburb of San Juan, Puerto Rico, conerned with both personality and social structure characteristics of large nd small families, found that the best family size for children to grow pin is the two child family--an important consideration for family planIng policies and programs throughout Latin America. The study found that athers were more accepting of large families than were mothers, and that eligion had little effect on family size.

rriage and fertility histories from the 1967 Survey of Economic Oppornity (SEO) have provided unusual opportunities for analysis by the Census reau. The study confirmed the findings of National Fertility Surveys th respect to the inverse relationships of education and income with rtility and the positive effect of early marriage on fertility. The ady suggests that declines in the average size of completed families will cur in the near future and will continue, partly because three-fourths of te wives aged 14-39 who have already had two children expect no more ldren.

SEO data are particularly useful in revealing the effect of early marriage Hivorce. Persons who marry when relatively young (under 20 for females under 22 for males) are about twice as likely to obtain a divorce as se who marry when they are older (27% versus 14% for females and 28% Bus 13% for males). The divorce rates for youthful marriages is even er among Negro couples than white couples. During the first two years arriage the presence of a child doubles the chances of divorce, probably use many of these marriages were prompted by premarital pregnancy.

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Chances of divorce are twice as high among men who make less than $8,000 than among those who make more money and the chances of remarriage improve proportionately with higher income.

Another study found that in California in 1967 some 17.6% of all births occurred to mothers under age 20 (42.5% of all illegitimate births, but only 14.7% of all legitimate births). Since pregnancy carries a higher risk for teenagers than for older women, a growing volume of California special services provide for teenage pregnant girls and for special consultation with young couples contemplating marriage.

Successive surveys of both the general population and professional groups in the Imited States have revealed a steady shift to more permissive attitudes toward abortion. Yet, estimates of the extent of abortion in the United States have varied widely, and hard data have been generally limited to records of individual hospitals and of a few states. To overcome this paucity of information, the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta started an "Abortion Surveillance" system of gathering key socio-economic and obstetrical data. CDC data from South Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska indicate that the probability of abortion is highest among women with no previous live births and lowest among those with one previous live birth. This suggests that women with a first pregnancy are most likely to want

to terminate it.

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