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ESTIMATED CAREER OPENINGS FOR CRAFTSMEN AND KINDRED WORKERS RESULTING FROM GROWTH OF EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS AND FROM RETIREMENTS AND DEATHS, 1965-76-Continued

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1 The 1965 employment estimates for total skilled workers and the major occupation subgroups are from the Bureau's Monthly Report on the Labor Force, December 1965, table A-19, p. 42. The 1965 estimates for individual occupations were developed in the course of the Bureau's occupational outlook research program, using a wide variety of sources including unpublished Current Population Survey data, employment data derived from BLS wage and other surveys union membership figures, data collected by government regulatory agencies, and miscellaneous employment information obtained from trade associations and other private groups. Actual 1965 employment levels by industry and estimated industry occupational staffing patterns were an important tool in making the 1965 employment estimates. In addition to employment data, use was made of related economic data in estimating employment in individual skilled occupations. For example, in developing estimates of vending machine mechanics in 1965 the number and kinds of vending machines in use and their estimated maintenance requirements were considered in arriving at the final employment estimate of these workers. The classification of individual occupations into given groups is that used in the Current Population Survey. It differs somewhat from the occupational classification system followed in the Occupational Outlook Handbook which is based on an independent analysis of the job content of individual occupations. For example, in the Handbook, millwrights are classified as mechanics and repairmen and not as "other craftsmen;" maintenance electricians are classified as mechanics and repairmen and not as building trades craftsmen.

2 Includes an estimate of the number of sheet-metal workers in the construction industry and those performing construction-related work in all other industries. Excluded are workers such as aviation metalsmiths, pattern cutters and developers in the motor vehicle industry, and template layout men in industry, as classified in the U.S. Census of Population category, "Tinsmiths, coppersmiths, and sheet-metal workers."

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items may not equal totals.

To obtain industry occupational patterns for 1975, recent trends were extended and adjusted for anticipated changes in such factors as technology, product mix, the size and complexity of business organizations, productivity, and work rules. Significant adjustments were more often necessary in newer industries, which have less clear occupational trends and little historical data; in industries in which rapid technological change is taking place; and in industries in which labor-management disputes affecting specific occupations are unresolved. It is difficult to assign numerical values to qualitative expectations, and adjustments of this nature are necessarily rough approximations.

Employment requirements were projected directly for those skilled occupations closely associated with a particular product or group of related products. For example, employment requirements for automobile mechanics are not primarily dependent upon changes in the level and mix of total industry employment, but rather on the number, age, and complexity of automobiles in use. Registrations of motor vehicles are estimated to rise significantly in the next 10 years because of increases in population, family formations, consumer purchasing power, and multicar ownership. In addition, the anticipated increase in the level of industrial activity and the dispersion of population are expected to increase the demand for truck transportation and, thus, for truck mechanics (who are included in the automobile mechanic classification).

In projecting the ratio of mechanics to motor vehicles, allowance was made for changes in the amount of maintenance required and the efficiency with which maintenance requirements can be performed. It is expected that more new cars will be equipped with features such as air conditioning, power steering, and power brakes. However, the increased number of more complex vehicles will be partially offset by a rise in mechanic productivity through the increasing use of new and improved testing equipment to locate defects, greater emphasis on replacement rather than on repair of defective parts, better shop management. specialization in a single type of repair, and better training methods. Unlike the postwar years, when the average age of motor vehicles (and maintenance requirements) declined significantly-reflecting the availability of new cars following World War II-the average age of motor vehicles is expected to remain relatively stable in the future.

Employment requirements for skilled occupations that could be projected directly, such as automobile mechanics, were used as control totals in preparing a final industry-occupation matrix.

DEATHS AND RETIREMENTS

Estimates of the number of job openings in each skilled occupation expected as a result of retirements and deaths were based on the age distribution of each occupation and separation rates derived from tables of working life prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

Retirements and deaths for individual skilled occupations were estimated by applying the derived overall age-specific rates to the age distribution of workers in each occupation. Since age distributions of most skilled occupations are available only from the decennial censuses, retirement and death rates were applied to 1960 employment levels. For each occupation, estimated retirements and deaths between 1960 and 1965 were subtracted from the estimated total between 1960 and 1975, to obtain retirements and deaths between 1965 and 1975. Since the great bulk of deaths and retirements takes place among older workers, it is reasonable to assume that the losses from each occupation over this 15-year period will be mainly among those who were in the occupation in 1960, and not among the new entrants since that time. To the extent that some men will have entered a craft in their forties or fifties since 1960, and will be subject to death or retirement before 1975, these estimates understate the impact of deaths and retirements; as noted, we have very little information on the amount of occupational shifting at these ages.

AN ART AND A SCIENCE

Projections of manpower requirements can provide valuable insight into the changing occupational structure of our economy. They may point out areas of opportunity which might otherwise be overlooked or indicate future problems early enough to take effective action. But, since no one can predict the future, manpower projections must be based, in large part, on assumptions and judgments (i.e., economic analysis). They cannot be considered precise numerical estimates. Some of these assumptions and judgments are discussed below.

Projections of employment requirements for skilled workers are based on several broad assumptions concerning the future. Among these are full employment in the target year, specifically an unemployment rate of 3 percent, and a level of economic activity high enough to achieve this goal. Others predicate the continuity of our basic economic and social institutions, the absence of drastic changes in the world situation, and scientific and technical progress in line with recent experience. Obviously, the projected employment trends will not be realistic unless the assumptions are reasonable. For example, a change in the international situation that resulted in substantially increased defense expenditures could be expected to raise employment requirements above the projected figure. A higher rate of unemployment than assumed would reduce the projected level of employment requirements-especially in cyclical industries such as construction, trade, and manufacturing, and thus in skilled occupations concentrated in these industries. A speedup in the postwar gradual decline in hours of work-especially if it should occur unevenly among industries and occupations could significantly affect the projected levels and patterns of industrial and occupational employment requirements.

These general assumptions allow the projections of employment requirements for skilled workers to be based, in large part, on economic trends and relationships since World War II. For example, the trend during recent years in the relationship between the number of radio and television sets in use and the employment of television and radio servicemen was the major factor in estimating future employment of these workers. In nearly all instances, however, trend data were modified to take account of expected changes in relationships. For instance, the much wider use of color television is expected to increase television maintenance requirements and, thus, the ratio of television servicemen to television sets in use.

Tables of working life trace the annual labor force participation of a hypothetical cohort from birth. The probability of separations during the next 10 years of workers currently age X is assumed to equal the number of separations in the base year of all workers between ages X and X plus 10. See "Table of Working Life for Men, 1960," Monthly Labor Review, July 1963, pp. 820-823.

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The assumptions concerning economic growth and the rate of unemployment in 1975 are obviously significant in estimating net changes in employment requirements. But for some occupations, this significance is lessened considerably when job openings resulting from retirements and deaths, which would not be affected significantly by a slightly higher rate of unemployment than assumed, are added to the projected change in employment requirements. For example, even if requirements for machinists failed to increase at all between 1965 and 1975 because of a level of economic activity lower than assumed, as many as 70,000 job openings for machinists could still be expected because of retirements and deaths.

A rough indication of the dependence of the number of projected total job openings on the full-employment assumption can be obtained for each skilled occupation by (1) considering the proportion of total projected job openings expected to result from retirements and deaths, and (2) on the basis of recent employment trends, evaluating the occupation's sensitivity to changes in the unemployment rate. For example, retirements and deaths are expected to account for about four-fifths of all openings for carpenters, but for less than 30 percent of openings for structural metal workers. The level of employment requirements in both of these occupations is sensitive to national levels of economic activity, but obviously the full-employment assumption is far more significant for projections of openings for structural metal workers than for carpenters. Or, for example, employment growth is expected to account for about two-thirds of the total job openings for appliance servicemen and for excavating, grading, and road machinery operators, but the assumption is more critical for the latter occupation because of its greater sensitivity to fluctuations in the overall level of economic activity.

In the final analysis, however, projections of employment requirements in specific occupations, even those very sensitive to overall levels of economic activity, are affected far more by assumptions concerning shifts in product demand, changes in output per worker, and the rate of technological innovation than by the difference between, say, 3 and 5 percent unemployment rates.

Projections of employment requirements are not estimates of actual employment, but rather of the future demand for workers. The projections may differ from actual employment in the target year, even when the assumptions concerning the future prove correct, if the available supply of trained workers is not in balance with employment requirements. Similarly, historical data, representing the interaction of supply and demand, are not perfectly comparable, conceptually, with the projections of employment requirements.

The precision of the projections of requirements for skilled workers is limited by the lack of detailed historical data. For example, comprehensive detailed data for occupations are available only once every 10 years from the U.S. Census of Population. Another statistical limitation is the absence of specific data on retirements and deaths for individual occupations, and the resulting reliance on averages for all men or women in the labor force.

TRAINING REQUIREMENTS

Projections of occupational employment requirements can serve as first approximations of training requirements, but for a number of reasons they cannot be translated directly into precise numerical estimates of the number of workers needed to be trained.

First, projections of occupational employment requirements in a target year are only partial estimates, as net employment growth conceals the continuous creation and destruction of jobs in a dynamic economy. For example, a new employment growth of 40,000 in a particular occupation may represent the creation of 50,000 new jobs and the destruction of 10,000 old jobs. However, the 10,000 workers who lost their jobs probably will not fill 10,000 of the new jobs, which may be located elsewhere or which may have slightly different skill or personal requirements.

Second, the projections exclude transfers of skilled workers to other occupations, and thus are only partial estimates of replacement needs. Although data on transfers are sketchy, the exclusion of transfers could significantly understate job openings in certain skilled occupations.

Third, training needs are also affected by the supply of skilled workers who are not currently working in skilled occupations but who might fill some of the job openings at the high levels of economic activity projected. For example, changes in occupational wage differentials could attract qualified skilled work

ers from other occupations. An unknown number of the projected openings for skilled workers could also be filled by craftsmen who are currently retired, unemployed, or in the Armed Forces. And some openings could be filled by upgrading workers from less skilled occupations. For example, the large number of openings for foremen will nearly all be filled by promoting journeymen. The journeymen in turn will be replaced by less experienced workers, and most actual job openings may be for helpers, operatives, and apprentices. Consequently, the occupational distribution of openings for new entrants may be considerably different from the occupational distribution of openings for skilled workers projected in this paper. However, the upgraded workers will have to be trained. whether on the job or in schools, if our craftsmen are to have the skills needed for an efficient and productive economy and a flexible work force.

Finally, most training of craftsmen is carried on in localities to meet local needs. The nationwide projections presented in this article are useful in evaluating the total adequacy of all local programs, but for planning training they have to be made specific as to States and cities. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Employment Security of the Department of Labor are currently working on the development of techniques for the relation of local manpower requirements projections to national projections.

Although factors such as labor supply, transfers of workers among occupations, and geographic shifts in employment must be considered before training needs can be estimated precisely, the Bureau's projections of employment requirements and of retirements and deaths show the approximate magnitude of training needs, and the relative magnitude of the needs in the various occupations, and thus can serve as a guide to evaluate the adequacy of training programs.

Estimating future manpower needs is as much an art as a science, and manpower projections must be interpreted with proper caution. Nevertheless, even with their present limitations, projections of manpower needs can significantly reduce the range of uncertainty within which decisions must be made.

[Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin No. 1474, February 1966]

EXHIBIT 266

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS IN MAJOR AMERICAN INDUSTRIES

THE CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY (SIC 15, 16, AND 17)

Summary of Outlook Through 1970

Changes in technology in the construction industry are expected to continue to evolve slowly as more efficient production equipment, improvements in materials handling, increased prefabrication of building components, changes in architectural and engineering design, and new and improved construction materials are adopted. These technological changes are expected to continue to reduce unit labor requirements, but the effects on employment will be more than offset by the anticipated increases in growth in construction. Employment in skilled trades is expected to increase, but at uneven rates because of the varying effects of technology. Employment of laborers will probably increase only slightly over the 1965 level.

Outlook for Technology and Markets

Output of construction for the next 5 years is expected to rise at a faster rate than during the 1957 to 1964 period. The average annual increase in output as measured by value of new construction put in place (contract construction comprising about three-fourths of this total) in 1957-59 dollars was 5.4 percent during the 1947-57 period, and 2.4 percent during the 1957-64 period. When measured in current dollars, annual increases in output amounted to 9.4 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Comparison of projections of the value of new construction in constant dollars from four major industry authorities shows an expected annual increase of about 3 to 5 percent between 1965 and 1970, an annual increase well above that for the 1957-64 period. Of the various types of construction, housing (which accounted for 40 percent of new construction in 1964), and highway construction probably will lead in this anticipated growth, reflecting an expected sharp rise

in household formations and continued activity in the Interstate and Defense Highways program. Construction of plants and office buildings should increase. Government programs such as aid to urban transportation, aid to schools, and urban housing development contribute to the prospect for a high rate of growth through 1970.

Improvements in earthmoving machinery are resulting in increased efficiency. Continuing increases in the size, capacity, power, speed, and durability of earthmoving equipment, such as trucks, tractors, scrapers, and shovels, are resulting in the moving of many times the amount of material that was previously possible, and occasional reductions in operating labor. For example, scrapers now have speeds double those of a few years ago and two or three bowls, rather than one, each with 50 percent greater capacity. Earth augers that dig shafts and mechanical moles that bore tunnels are replacing much hand labor and a number of smaller machines in tunnel, sewer, and pipeline contruction. A machine called the "octopus," essentially a tractor with a front-end loader and back hoe, replaces two or three pieces of equipment and their operators and is increasingly being used in a wide variety of small excavating jobs. Wheel excavators of the type used in strip mining, first introduced in construction in 1964, dig, convey, and load material continuously and, compared with conventional shovels, significantly increase speed of excavation for dams, reservoirs, and other extremely large earthmoving projects. At least three wheel excavators are used in the industry and prospects for more widespread application are favorable.

New portable construction equipment and hand tools are increasingly being introduced. This equipment, used in all types of building construction to reduce unit labor requirements, job costs, and completion time, includes power trowels, paint and plaster spraying guns, power nailing and stapling machines, and motorized wheel barrows. The use of plaster spraying guns and pumping machines, for example, can reduce considerably the time required to apply plaster. This equipment doubles the amount of plaster a worker can apply in a day and enables a single plasterer to keep a larger number of workers busy to flatten and smooth the freshly sprayed plaster.

Advances in material-handling equipment continue to minimize handling problems and to decrease manpower requirements. Improvements in forklift trucks, conveyor-belt systems, motorized wheelbarrows, pneumatic pipe systems, and conventional cranes are facilitating the moving and handling of construction materials.

Another important development in material handling is the tower crane. Introduced into this country from Europe around 1959, tower cranes numbered an estimated 300 in 1963, have increased in use, and are expected to have widespread use in the future. Especially useful in the construction of tall buildings, tower cranes can be used to deliver material to any part of the top of a tall building—not just near the edge as do conventional crawler cranes—and to hoist material to greater heights. Because tower cranes can be used to deliver material where it is required, labor crews normally needed to shift material about when using conventional cranes are significantly reduced. For example, the use of a tower crane in the construction of one building enabled the reduction of crews of men working with concrete from 20 men to 5. In another job, one tower crane replaced two crawler cranes.

Significant advances continue to be made in paving. Major advances in both asphalt and concrete paving, which are improving the quality of highways and reducing unit labor requirements, construction costs, completion time of construction jobs, include more portable and automatically controlled mixing plants; larger capacity and higher speed transit mix trucks; and more automatic, electronic controlled grading and paving machines.

Still another significant advance in concrete paving is the slip-form method which eliminates the fixed side forms used in conventional paving. Instead. forms are a part of the paving machine (slip-form paver) and slide forward with it leaving the concrete slab edges unsupported. This method of paving reduces costs by eliminating the need for crews to erect and remove forms. In addition, one slip-form paver can do the work of three conventional paving machines, thus reducing the number of machine operators and concrete finishers required. Accepted for production use in the last decade, 52 slip-form pavers are now used throughout the country. Some experts predict that in 10 years all concrete highways will be built by slip-form paving. Slip-forming techniques are also being increasingly applied to airport runway construction, to parking lot paving. and, more recently, to the construction of concrete walls of buildings.

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