Switchboxes and switchboards, which formerly had to be wired at the building site, are now preassembled at the factory. Preassembled and prewired ceiling units, which the electrician connects to the power source, can eliminate the need to wire the complete system and install the fixtures. Improved tools and equipment being used increasingly by electricians include more efficient conduit benders; multiple spindle drills; cordless electric drills, saws, and other tools; and "kits" of splicing materials that reduce the time needed to insulate cable splices. Maintenance Electricians. The number of maintenance electricians-more than 200,000 in 1964-is expected to increase by a few thousand each year through the mid-1970's as a result of high rates of industrial growth and the trend toward increased use of electrical and electronic equipment. Many of the new job opportunities for these workers will occur in the primary metal, machinery, and chemical industries. Thousands of additional workers also will be needed to replace electricians who retire, are promoted, transfer to other fields of work, or die. Retirements and deaths alone may result in about 5,000 new job openings each year. Bricklayers. Employment of bricklayers-about 160,000 in 1964—is expected to rise moderately during the 1964-75 period. In addition, thousands of job opportunities will result from the need to replace experienced workers who transfer to other fields of work, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone will result in about 2,700 job openings annually. Much of the expected growth in this trade is expected to result from the anticipated large increase in construction activity. The demand for bricklayers will be favorably affected also by the increasing use of structural clay tile for fireresistant partitions; glass blocks for exterior walls; and ornamental brickwork for structures such as exterior screenwalls, and lobbies and foyers. In terms of employment opportunities, these developments will be offset somewhat by changes in construction technology that reduce the amount of brickwork per structure. For example, the increasing use of steel framework and reinforced concrete in some types of structures is expected to more than offset growth in the use of load-bearing brick walls in apartment buildings. Also, the use of metal and glass wall panels in buildings and precast panels made of brick and other masonry materials reduces on-site brickwork. Other recent developments increasing the efficiency of bricklayers include high-strength mortars that can be applied with caulking guns or compressor-powered extruders and improved bricklaying machines. Industrial Machinery Repairmen. Employment of industrial machinery repairmen-about 150,000 in 1964-is expected to increase moderately during the 1964-75 period. In addition to employment growth, thousands of job openings will result from the need to replace experienced mechanics who transfer to other occupations, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone will result in about 4,000 job openings annually. The rise in employment of industrial machinery repairmen is expected mainly from the anticipated use of more machinery and equipment to fabricate, process, assemble, inspect, and move industrial materials. In addition, as automatic equipment and continuous production lines become more widespread, breakdowns will lead to greater losses of production and make repair work and preventive maintenance more essential. Structural, Ornamental-, Reinforcing-Iron Workers, Riggers, and Machine Movers. Employment in these trades is expected to increase rapidly during the 1964-75 period. In addition, the need to replace experienced ironworkers who transfer to other occupations, retire, or die will provide a few thousand job opportunities each year. Retirements and deaths alone will result in about 1,300 job openings annually. Employment of these workers is expected to rise rapidly, principally because of the large increase anticipated in construction activity. The job outlook in these trades will be favorably affected by the increased use of structural steel in smaller buildings. Also, the development of lightweight and specialty steels has improved the competitive position of steel as a construction material and resulted in increasing job opportunities for structural-iron workers. Work opportunities for ornamental-iron workers will result from the growing use of ornamental panels of aluminum, porcelainized steel, or other metals, which are attached to the exterior walls of large buildings; and by the growing use of metal frames to hold large glass installations. The demand for riggers and machine movers is expected to increase because of the expanding use of heavy construction machinery. The use of prestressed concrete in a growing variety of structures will result in increasing job opportunities for reinforcing-iron workers. More widespread use of relatively new technological developments are expected to slow employment growth of ironworkers. For example, the development of a compact squirt-welding machine has greatly reduced the time needed for field welding. Structural steel frames are being assembled on the ground and hoisted into a vertical position, thus reducing the amount of iron work required above the ground. The use of prestressed steel beams makes possible longer spans with less steel; these beams are being used increasingly in bridge construction. Also available are almost completely prefabricated, and painted, short-span bridges made of prestressed steel, which can be erected in as little as 1 day. Also, prefabricated reinforcing mats, or fabrics, are being used increasingly in concrete highway and building construction. These prefabricated mats reduce requirements for on-site rod bending, tying, and welding by reinforcing-iron workers. In addition, an increasing variety of ornamental metal products are being designed by manufacturers for more efficient on-site installation. Tool and Die Makers. Employment of tool and die makers-almost 150,000 in 1964 is expected to increase moderately during the 1964-75 period, as a result of the anticipated expansion of metalworking activity. In addition, many openings will become available as experienced tool and die makers transfer to other fields of work, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone should provide more than 3,000 job openings annually. The anticipated long-range expansion in the machinery, electrical equipment, and other metalworking industries will result in a continued increase in the employment of tool and die makers. Their skills will be needed to help put many technological developments into effect. On the other hand, the increasing reliance on numerically controlled machines which require fewer of the special tools and jigs and fixtures that are now made by tool and die makers, may adversely affect the employment of these workers. In addition, numerically controlled machines may be used increasingly to produce many tools, dies, and other fixtures currently made by tool and die makers. [From the Monthly Labor Review, April 1966, Reprint No. 2491] EXHIBIT 265 ESTIMATED NEED FOR SKILLED WORKERS, 1965-75 Alan F. Salt * MORE THAN 4 MILLION Skilled jobs will have to be filled throughout the United States during the next 10 years because of the growth of the economy and the need to replace workers who retire or die.1 The approximately 18 million young men ages 14 to 29 who are expected to enter the labor force between 1965 and 1975 will be able to fill many of these jobs if they have the necessary training. Employment requirements for skilled workers (craftsmen) are expected to increase from 9.2 million in 1965 to about 11.4 million in 1975-a gain of almost one fourth-as skilled workers continue to play a strategic role in our increasingly complex economy. Industries grow and technologies change at different rates, however, and demand for some categories of skilled workers will increase faster than for others. For some, demand will decline. 1 The projections in this article were developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the course of its continuing occupational outlook research program, especially its work for the 1966-67 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. In addition to the broad discussion of trends contained in the Handbook, more detailed numerical estimates are presented in this article to provide background information for the planning of training programs for skilled workers, and for the evaluation of the adequacy of training activity to meet manpower needs. The proper use of manpower projections depends on an understanding of what they are intended to show as well as their major limitations. The Bureau's projections of manpower requirements (or of labor supply, for that matter) are intended to serve a variety of purposes. But, like all economic projections, they are not universally applicable. Their margin of error may be acceptable for one purpose, yet intolerable for another. For a discussion of some conceptual problems and research needs relating to manpower projections, see Monthly Labor Review, February 1966, pp. 138-143. *Of the Division of Manpower and Occupational Outlook, Bureau of Labor Statistics. The demand for mechanics and repairmen-to install and maintain the increasing amount of complex equipment that will be used by industry, government agencies, and private households-is expected to grow more rapidly than the demand for other skilled workers. Employment requirements for foremen are expected to grow rapidly, because the increasing intricacy of productive processes requires a higher ratio of supervisors to workers. In the building trades, growing expenditures for new construction and maintenance and repair will more than offset rising output per worker, and the number of building trades workmen is expected to increase moderately. The need for skilled machining workers is also expected to increase only moderately, in spite of a rapidly increasing demand for machined products, because of the growing use of techniques such as numerical control. Rapid technological advances in printing techniques and equipment are expected to make it possible to increase printing production significantly with few, if any, additional workers, although some individual printing trades will grow and some decline. The demand for other skilled workers, as a group, is expected to increase moderately. But growth in employment requirements will not be the sole source of job opportunities for skilled workers. For some skilled occupations, the need to replace workers who die, retire, or transfer to other lines of work is expected to account for the bulk of career openings. For example, although employment requirements for carpenters in the construction industry are not expected to increase significantly between 1965 and 1975, about 160,000 career openings are expected to result from the need to replace experienced men who retire or die. Estimates of job openings resulting from transfers are not included in this article. Overall, retirements and deaths of experienced skilled workers are expected to account for more than four-fifths as many openings as growth of employment requirements. Counting both growth of employment requirements and openings due to retirements and deaths about a third of the 4 million job openings for skilled workers will be for mechanics and repairmen, and about a quarter for building trades workers. Requirements for foremen and for miscellaneous skilled workers will each account for about 15 percent of the total. Machining occupations and the printing trades are expected to provide only a small proportion of job openings for skilled workers. 2 The projections for selected skilled occupations are presented in the accompanying table. Because of the importance of the construction industry as an employer of building craftsmen, a separate figure is given in the table for building craftsmen employed in that industry. For a discussion of factors affecting the outlook for individual skilled occupations (as well as many industries), see the 196667 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and America's Industrial and Occupational Manpower Requirements, 1964-1975, a report prepared by the Bureau for the National Commission on Technology, Automation and Economic Progress. THE TECHNIQUES OF PROJECTING Although a variety of techniques were used to estimate future employment requirements for skilled workers, in general, two approaches were followed. The first was to project employment requirements by industry, and then to estimate the occupational distribution in each industry, on the basis of available information on the changing occupational composition of that industry. Total requirements for each skilled occupation were obtained by summing the employment projections for that occupation in all industries. The second approach was to project employment in each occupation directly, on the basis of its relationship to certain independent variables. Wherever possible, occupational requirements were projected in both ways, and differences reconciled. The results were then checked for reasonableness by knowledgeable representatives of unions and of business and trade associations. The number of job openings expected to result from retirements and deaths was added to the number anticipated because of increased employment require The construction industry as defined in the Current Population Survey includes establishments engaged in contract construction and government agencies engaged in construction and related activities such as highway maintenance and land reclamation. The construction industry does not include building trades workers engaged in force account construction or maintenance in manufacturing, public utilities, and other industries. The contract construction industry, used in BLS establishment statistics, includes only those private establishments performing construction activities, including new construction and maintenance and repair, on a contract basis. ments. However, estimates were not made for job openings resulting from the transfer of experienced workers to other lines of work, because of the lack of adequate data on occupational mobility.❜ PROJECTIONS BY INDUSTRY Industry employment requirements were projected in several steps. First, a model was constructed that would allow cyclical and other factors to be separated from secular trends. A system of equations was developed relating postwar employment in each industry to variables such as real gross national product (GNP). national rate of unemployment, personnel in the Armed Forces, population, and time. Such variables are believed to be strategic in determining longrun changes in aggregate employment, and they allow the construction of a model that explicitly incorporates the unemployment and economic activity assumptions. A national unemployment rate of 3 percent was assumed,' and the system of equations was solved to obtain simulated levels of employment in each industry for past years and for 1975. The results derived by these somewhat mechanical procedures were considered first approximations, because the small number of variables used in the model were not the most significant determinates of employment in every industry and because postwar relationships are not expected to persist in every industry. Nevertheless, it is believed that for most industries this technique provided a set of projected industry employment requirements reasonably consistent with the general assumptions. To refine these first approximations, employment requirements were projected directly for many individual industries, based on intensive analyses of variables such as expected changes in the total domestic production of each product or service, competition from other products, population and household formation trends, technological changes, changes in output per worker, trends in hours of work, and shifts in product mix. To establish the framework within which these relationships were projected, the general level of GNP in the target year was estimated, based on 97 percent utilization of the available labor force, and then disaggregated into what was considered a reasonable and consistent pattern of income and expenditure accounts. Production levels consistent with these assumptions were then estimated for individual industries and translated into total employment requirements. For example, in the motor vehicle manufacturing industry, the following variables were considered: Personal disposable income, expenditures for producers' durable equipment, driving-age population, number of households, motor vehicle exports and imports, and motor vehicle scrappage rates. Allowance was made for the expected effects of a continuing movement of population to the suburbs, changing consumer tastes, changing product mix, and growth of competitive means of transportation. The final production estimate for 1975, derived from the above relationships, was translated into total man-hour requirements by dividing projected production by projected output per man-hour. The resulting man-hour requirements were then divided by projected hours of work per production and nonproduction worker, to derive the manpower requirements. 3 For some indication of the extent of job shifts into and out of the skilled occupations, see "Job Mobility in 1961," Monthly Labor Review, August 1963, pp. 897-906. A 3-percent unemployment rate was considered a reasonable long-term goal. The national unemployment rate is, of course, an average and for some industries the unemployment rate could be higher and for some lower. For example, the unemployment rate for the construction industry averaged roughly twice the national rate during the post-World War II period; therefore, a construction industry unemployment rate as high as 6 percent in 1975 might not be inconsistent with an overall unemployment assumption of 3 percent. Different assumptions could have been made concerning the overall level of unemployment in 1975. For example, for some purposes, it would be useful to explore the implications of a somewhat higher level of unemployment, say, 3.5 or 4 percent. For the whole economy. such a difference would merely equal the difference between a situation in which 97 percent of the labor force is employed and one in which either 96.5 or 96 percent is employed1.e., a difference of about 2 of 1 percent or about 1 percent, which is negligible in comparison with the other sources of possible error in the projections. However, the effects of a higher (or lower) unemployment level would be more significant for some industries and skilled occupations than that for others. The difference in projected employment in 1975 based on an unemployment assumption of 4 percent compared with one of 3 percent would be somewhat more than 1 million, including the effects of the higher unemployment rate on the size of the labor force. Based on relationships that existed in the post-World War II period, more than half of any difference in total employment in 1975 resulting from the assumption of, say, a 1-percent higher unemployment rate would be in manufacturing. Other industry groups that would be significantly affected are trade, transportation and public utilities, and contract construction. Considering both the results obtained from the economic model and (more importantly) from the intensive industry studies, final judgment projections were made for employment in each industry. In all industries, extensive use was made of the findings of the interagency economic growth project, including their interindustry tables and supporting analysis. PROJECTIONS BY OCCUPATION The first step in estimating employment requirements by occupation was to develop industry occupational patterns, apply them to the projections of industry employment requirements, and sum requirements for each skilled occupation. The basic occupational composition patterns of each industry were based, in large part, on the 1960 Census of Population, but included data from a wide variety of other sources such as BLS wage surveys, data collected by regulatory agencies, and unpublished data from the Current Population Survey. ESTIMATED CAREER OPENINGS FOR CRAFTSMEN AND KINDRED WORKERS RESULTING FROM GROWTH OF EMPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS AND FROM RETIREMENTS AND DEATHS, 1965-75 |