EXHIBIT 264

EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SKILLED WORKERS

By Allan Salt

Skilled occupations offer definite advantages for young people who are willing to invest time and effort in the necessary training. Skilled workers have higher earnings, more job security, better chances for promotion, and more opportunities to start their own business, than less-skilled workers. Of the 11 occupation groups in the labor force, only professional, managerial, and sales workers had higher average annual earnings than skilled workers in 1964.

About 42 million job openings for craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers (skilled workers) are expected between 1964 and 1975 because of growth of employment requirements and the need to replace experienced workers who retire or die.' In addition, many job openings will occur from the need to replace experienced workers who transfer to other lines of work.

The nature of skilled jobs makes them an especially significant source of careers for young men ; for example, in 1964, more than 97 percent of all workers in this major occupation group were males. Although some job openings for skilled workers will be filled by workers already in the labor force, the Bureau's projections indicate that many of the more than 20 million young men ages 14 to 29 expected to enter the labor force for the first time during this period will be able to get skilled jobs if they have the necessary training.

Skilled workers play a strategic role in our Nation's economy. They make the patterns, models, tools, dies, machines, and equipment vital to industrial proc esses. Skilled workers repair the equipment used in industry as well as the mechanical equipment and appliances used by consumers. They construct homes, commercial and industrial buildings, dams, bridges, and highways. Skilled workers must have a thorough knowledge of the processes involved in their work. They exercise considerable independent judgment and are often responsible for the care of valuable equipment or products. As foremen, they supervise and train semiskilled and unskilled workers, as well as other skilled workers, and are responsible for the efficient operation of their work units.

Skilled workers usually receive extensive training. Many acquire their skills through apprenticeship or other formal training programs that combine work experience with classroom training. Large numbers of young men in the armed services also acquire skills that help prepare them for skilled jobs in the civilian labor force. For others, vocational school training plays an important role. Most skilled workers, however, acquire their skills through on-the-job training, without participation in a planned training program.

Because of the importance of skilled workers and the many years it takes to educate and train them, it is important to estimate future employment requirements for these workers, even when only rough estimates can be made. Estimates of employment requirements should help guide those who plan and administer education and training programs, and guidance counselors helping young people plan careers.

NEED IN THE DECADE AHEAD

Employment requirements for skilled workers are expected to increase from 8.9 million in 1964 to more than 11 million in 1975 a gain of about one-fourth. However, as industries continue to grow at different rates, and as technology continues to change, some skilled occupations will increase faster than others, and some skilled occupations may even decline. During the half century 1910–60,

1 The projections of employment requirements in this article were developed in the course of the Bureau of Labor Statistics continuing occupational outlook research program, especially its work for the 1966-67 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. They are based on certain general assumptions about our future economic, political, and scientific institutions. The most important assumptions are full employment in the target year, spe cifically an unemployment rate of 3 percent, and a level of economic activity high enough to achieve this goal. Other assumptions predicate the continuity of our basic economic and social institutions, the absence of drastic changes in the world political situation, and scientific and technical progress in line with recent experience. Obviously, the projections. which are projections of demand, will not be realized unless the assumptions are realized and the supply of trained workers is adequate for the projected levels of demand. Because development of manpower projections is a continuing process within the Bureau and because they are subject to continuous review, the projections in this article are subject to change as new data becomes available and techniques are improved.

when the number of craftsmen rose by more than 5 million, or almost 125 percent, some skilled occupations increased several hundred percent while others actually declined. For example, while the 47 skilled occupations for which comparable data are available increased 123 percent as a group, employment of heat treaters, annealers, and temperers increased more than 10 times, and telephone and telegraph linemen and servicemen more than 7 times. In contrast, stone cutters and carvers, and tailors both declined about 80 percent. More recently, between 1950 and 1960, when total employment of skilled workers grew by about 12 percent, employment increases for individual skilled occupations ranged from about 3 percent to more than 100 percent; and employment in about a third of the skilled occupations actually declined. The fastest growing groups of skilled workers during the 1950's were mechanics and repairmen, and foremen. Together, they accounted for about nine-tenths of the total increase in skilled workers during these years.

Between 1964 and 1975, the numbers of mechanics and repairmen are expected to continue to grow more rapidly than other skilled workers because of the increasing use of complex equipment in industry, government agencies, and private households. Employment of foremen is expected to grow rapidly, in large part because of the higher ratio of supervisors to workers required by the increasing complexity of productive processes. The number of building trades workers is expected to grow moderately as large increases in expenditures for new construction and maintenance and repairs more than offset rapid increases in construction put in place per worker. Skilled machining workers, in spite of increasing demand for their products, are expected to increase only moderately because of the growing use of labor-saving techniques such as numerical control. Employment of printing trades craftsmen as a group should show little change during this period because rapid technological advances in printing techniques and equipment are expected to make it possible to increase printing production significantly with few additional workers. Other skilled groups are expected to increase slightly.

But employment growth will not be the only source of job opportunities for skilled workers. For these workers as a group, retirements, deaths, and transfers to other lines of work are expected to account for as many or more job opportunities as employment growth. Retirements and deaths alone should account for four-fifths as many opportunities as employment growth. And for some skilled occupations, retirements and deaths are expected to account for many more job openings than employment growth. For example, job openings for carpenters between 1964 and 1975 resulting from deaths and retirements are expected to be more than 21⁄2 times as great as those resulting from employment growth.

Including job openings resulting from employment growth, and from retirements and deaths, mechanics and repairmen should account for about a third and building trades workers about a quarter of the total openings for skilled workers. Foremen and miscellaneous skilled workers may each account for about 15 percent of total skilled job openings. The machining occupations and printing trades are expected to provide only a small proportion of total openings for skilled workers.

OUTLOOK BY TRADE

Skilled occupations that are expected to provide at least 50,000 job openings each during the next 10 years as a result of employment growth, retirements, and deaths are discussed below in order of magnitude of opportunities anticipated. (Note that job openings due to transfers of experienced workers are not included in the 50,000 figure.)

Carpenters. Total employment of carpenters-more than 800,000 in 1964-is expected to increase slowly during the 1964-75 period. In addition, experienced carpenters who transfer to other fields of work, retire, or die will be replaced. Retirements and deaths alone will provide about 20,000 job openings annually through the mid-1970's.

The large rise expected in construction activity is expected to result in a growing demand for carpenters. Large increases are anticipated in the level of construction activity between 1964 and 1975 because of the expected rapid rise in the

2 Foremen are not included because these skilled workers are usually promoted to foremen from craftsmen jobs.

level of economic activity. Other specific factors that should stimulate construction activity include large increases in population and the number of households; a continuing shift of families from the cities to the suburbs; increases in expenditures for schools; and a rise in expenditures for new industrial capacity. In addition, more carpenters will be needed in the maintenance departments of fac tories, commercial establishments, large residential projects, and Government agencies.

However, employment growth will continue to be limited by technological developments. For example, the use of building components prepared off the building site is expected to increase. These components, which include floors, partitions, and stairs, are designed for easy and speedy installation. Walls and partitions can be lifted into place in one operation. Beams and, in some instances, roof assemblies are lifted into place by cranes. With the standardization of prefabricated components, their use will increase further. More widespread use of improved tools and equipment will also increase the efficiency of carpenters. New types of nails have improved holding ability; hence, fewer nails are required. Strong adhesives that can be used in place of nails reduce the time needed to join pieces of wood and other materials. Power tools in use include stud drivers, screwdrivers, sanders, saws, staplers, and nailing machines. One type of power tool can drill and nail in one operation. New types of scaffolding are easier to erect.

Employment opportunities for carpenters will also be limited by the increased use of construction materials and techniques that reduce the amount of carpentry work required in residential buildings. For example, where houses are framed with steel, the use of curtain-wall panels which can be fastened into place quickly is possible. In addition to the speed with which they can be put in place, curtainwall panels also may reduce the need for carpenters because they are available in nonwood materials such as glass, aluminum, and porcelain-coated steel. The use of plastics in building construction is in its infancy, but increasing use is expected. Already available are siding, curtain walls, partitions, roofing, ornamental screening, and insulation materials made of plastic. Under development are foam plastic roofs and even entire houses of plastic that can be constructed at the building site.

Plumbers and Pipefitters. Employment of plumbers and pipefitters-about 335,000 in 1964-is expected to rise rapidly during the 1964-75 period. In addition, thousands of job opportunities will arise as a result of the need to replace experienced plumbers and pipefitters who transfer to other fields of work, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone should result in about 7,000 job openings annually.

The large increase anticipated in construction activity is expected to be the most important factor causing employment of these workers to grow. But, in addition, plumbing and heating work is expected to become more important in many types of construction. For example, the trend toward more bathrooms per dwelling unit is likely to continue. The installation of appliances such as washing machines and waste disposals will become more widespread. The number of automatic heating system installations probably will increase. In addition, more pipe is being used in industry generally, and plumbers and pipefitters will be needed for installation and maintenance work. For example, the chemical industry, which uses extensive pipework, is expected to expand its facilities. Increasing industrial activities related to atomic energy and greater use of refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment will also result in more work for plumbers and pipe

fitters.

More widespread use of relatively new technological developments are expected partially to offset the employment effect of growing demand for plumbing work. For example, prefabricated plumbing assemblies can be installed as a unit, thereby reducing the amount of on-site plumbing required. Ventpipe sections come in standardized lengths that can be fastened together by locking joint bands, thus eliminating cementing operations. Some builders are preassembling their own waste, vent, and other systems components. This work-usually performed in shops set up near the building site by an employer's regular crew-can be performed during inclement weather or other slow periods.

Automobile Mechanics. There will be many thousands of job openings for automobile mechanics during the 1964-75 period. Several thousand openings are expected each year as a result of employment growth, and an even larger number because of the need to replace experienced mechanics who retire, die, and transfer to other lines of work. Deaths and retirements alone are expected to provide about 10,000 job openings each year.

Employment of automobile mechanics-more than 550,000 in 1964 -is expected to increase primarily because of an increase of more than one-fourth in the number of automobiles during the next 10 years. Increases in population, new families, consumer purchasing power, and multicar ownership are expected to contribute to the rising demand for automobiles. The need for automobile mechanics is also expected to increase because a growing number of new automobiles will be equipped with features such as air conditioning, power steering, and power brakes-all of which increase maintenance requirements.

The favorable employment effects of increasing numbers of automobiles and their greater complexity will be partially offset by the increasing efficiency of mechanics. For example, the more widespread use of improved automobile servicing equipment should help mechanics locate and repair defects more quickly. Other developments expected to improve efficiency include greater emphasis on replacement rather than on repair of defective parts, specialization in a single type of repair, better shop management, and improved training methods.

Painters. Employment of painters about 400,000 in 1964-is expected to increase slowly during the 1964-75 period. In addition to employment growth, thousands of job openings will arise from the need to replace experienced painters who transfer to other occupations, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone are expected to provide more than 10,000 job openings annually. The anticipated large rise in construction activity is expected to result in a growing demand for painters. Moreover, recently developed paints that are heat-, abrasion-, and corrosion-resistant have resulted in new uses for paints. Also, a growing number of painters are expected to be needed in the maintenance departments of large industrial and commercial firms.

Technological developments are expected to continue to partially offset the favorable effects of growing demand. New types of paint that are more easily applied and have improved "covering power" makes it easier for inexperienced workers to do work that is acceptable to some customers. Other paints that are being introduced promise to double the "life" of ordinary paints. Spray painting requires fewer painters to do the same amount of work. In addition, many items formerly painted at the building site now come from a factory with a prime coat and often with a final coat. Aluminum building products, which often require no paintings, have become increasingly common in recent years.

Excavating, Grading, and Road Machinery Operators. Employment of these workers-about 235,000 in 1964-is expected to increase rapidly between 1964 and 1975. In addition, thousands of job opportunities will result from the need to replace experienced workers who transfer to other fields of work, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone are expected to provide about 4,500 job openings annually through the mid-1970's.

The rapid rise in employment of excavating, grading, and road machinery engineers is projected mainly on the basis of the anticipated growth in construction activity. The growing volume of highway construction resulting from the Federal Government's long-range highway development program will provide thousands of job opportunities for these workers. Job opportunities will also result from the need to maintain and repair the Nation's expanding highway system.

More specialized and more complex machines, particularly those used in earth moving, as well as smaller machines suitable for small construction projects, are being developed and are expected to be used to a greater extent. The increasing mechanization of materials movement in factories and mines should also result in growing employment of these workers outside of construction.

Technological improvements will limit the growth in employment of construction machinery operators. Greater size, speed, mobility, and durability of construction machines are expected to increase operator efficiency. Mobile truck cranes that can lift 125 tons as high as 33 stories and scrapers that can scoop up and carry as much as 150 tons of dirt in one load are now in use. Earthmoving machines now move many times the amount of earth that could be moved by the largest machine a few years ago.

New machines frequently combine the functions of several conventional machines. One example, is the slip-form paver that spreads, vibrates, forms, and finishes concrete paving in one continuous operation. The slip-form paver replaces at least four other machines formerly used in concrete paving. Another example, is a pipelaying machine that digs a trench, lowers the pipe into the trench, and fills the trench after the pipe is connected. In addition, electronic controls on

construction equipment are being used increasingly. For example, the use of electronic grade controls on highway paving equipment results in smoother pavements and greater efficiency of the paving operation.

All-Round Machinists. A moderate increase in the number of all-round machinists is expected during the 1965-75 decade, as a result of the anticipated expansion of metalworking activities. However, most job openings should arise from the need to replace experienced machinists who transfer to other fields of work, or who retire or die. In this large occupation, retirements and deaths alone will result in about 7,000 job openings annually.

The employment of all-round machinists-more than 300,000 in 1964-is expected to increase, especially in maintenance shops, as industries continue to use a greater volume of complex machinery and equipment. Skilled maintenance machinists will be needed to prevent costly shutdowns in highly mechanized plants where a breakdown of one machine may stop many others.

Appliance Servicemen. Employment of appliance servicemen-more than 180,000 in 1964-is expected to increase by more than 50,000 during the 1965-75 decade. In addition to the opportunities resulting from employment growth, more than 40,000 job openings will result from the need to replace experienced servicemen who retire or die. Transfers of experienced appliance servicemen to other lines of work should provide additional thousands of job openings.

The number of household appliances in use is expected to increase rapidly during the decade ahead. Factors that will contribute to this growth include rising population and family formations, and rising levels of personal disposable income. The introduction of new appliances and the improved styling and design of appliances to make them attractive and easy to operate will stimulate demand. Employment of appliance servicemen is not expected to increase as rapidly as appliances. Manufacturers' designs include more durable components and assemblies that can be taken apart and repaired more easily. In addition, employers are increasing the efficiency of servicemen through more effective training.

Stationary Engineers. Employment of stationary engineers-about 250,000 in 1964-is expected to increase by a few thousand each year through the mid1970's. In addition, it is estimated that about 7,000 new workers will enter this large occupation each year to replace workers who retire or die. Promotions and transfers of experienced workers to other fields of work also will create job openings for new workers.

Employment of stationary engineers is expected to grow mainly because of the continuing increase in the use of large stationary boilers and refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment in factories, powerplants, and other buildings. Other job opportunities are expected to arise from the continued growth of pipeline transportation and saline water conversion.

The increasing use of atomic energy to generate power should not affect significantly the employment of stationary engineers. It is likely that both the number and skill requirements of operating jobs (i.e., stationary engineer, boiler operator, turbine operator, etc.) in a nuclear plant will be about the same as those in a new conventional powerplant.

Construction Electricians. Employment of construction electricians more than 150,000 in 1964-is expected to increase rapidly during the 1964-75 period. In addition to the job openings arising from employment growth, many thousands of job opportunities will result from the need to replace experienced workers who transfer to other lines of work, retire, or die. Retirements and deaths alone should result in more than 3,000 job openings annually through the mid-1970's. The increase in employment of construction electricians is expected mainly as a result of the anticipated large expansion in construction activity. Other factors expected to contribute to the growth of this trade are greater requirements for electric outlets, switches, and wiring in homes to accommodate the increasing use of appliances and air-conditioning systems; and the extensive wiring systems needed for the installation of electronic data-processing equipment and electrical control devices being used increasingly in commerce and industry. Other recent developments that are expected to expand the demand for construction elec tricians include an increase in the number of “all-electric" homes, and the use of outdoor radiant heating, and snow and ice melting systems.

Technological developments are expected to slow employment growth in this trade. A major technological development increasing the efficiency of electricians is the prefabrication of electrical equipment. For example, preassembled conductors and raceways that can be installed in one operation are available.