our Panel recommends that Federal tax or subsidy policies concerning automotive fuels be modified to provide price incentive for the purchase of an unleaded or low leaded fuel. The Panel also notes that this can be accomplished in many ways: By increasing the tax on leaded gasoline, by placing a tax on the lead additive, by decreasing the tax on unleaded fuels, by direct subsidy or by accelerated depreciation schedules for additional refinery equipment to be used to produce now unleaded fuels. The Panel does not specifically recommend any one of these. It does recommend action that will bring about an incentive for the purchase of low lead fuel.

(The report referred to follows:)

THE IMPLICATIONS OF LEAD REMOVAL FROM AUTOMOTIVE FUEL-JUNE 1970 (An Interim Report of the Commerce Technical Advisory Board Panel on Automobile Fuels and Air Pollution*)

CHARTER OF THE PANEL

"In relation to the effects of gasoline compositions, particularly certain additives, on man and his environment and in relation to the effects of variations in gasoline composition on the general performance of internal combustion engines and on the control of pollution from these engines, the Panel is asked to identify and evaluate the costs and consequences of alternative ways of modifying the engines or fuels or both to achieve appropriate reductions in emissions; and to recommend: a. specific policies with regard to the required changes,

b. specific standards and procedures for controlling the additives to gasoline, c. plans for the institution of the necessary programs for modifying the fuel or the engines or the use of the additives in the most effective way.

d. strategies for marketing new fuels and engines without obsoleting the existing inventory of vehicles and fuel supply equipment."

PANEL MEMBERSHIP

David V. Ragone, Chairman, Associate Dean, School of Urban and Public Affairs and Professor of Engineering, Carnegie-Mellon University. Robert M. Winfree, Executive Secretary, Department of Commerce.

John D. Baldeschwieler, Professor of Chemistry, Stanford University.

James L. Dooley, Vice President, Advanced Development Division, McCulloch Corporation.

Owen P. Hall, Jr., Systems Analyst, TRW.

Frederick J. Hooven, Adjunct Professor of Engineering, Thayer School, Dartmouth College.

Donald L. Katz, University Professor of Chemical Engineering, University of Michigan.

Michael J. Massey, Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie-Mellon University.

Eric R. Morgan, President, Stainless & Strip Division, Jones & Laughlin Steel Corporation. Ernest S. Starkman, Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Thermal Systems, University of California at Berkeley.

GOVERNMENT LIAISON

Harry M. Callaway, Business and Defense Services Administration, Department of Commerce.

Donald D. Dunlop, Assistant and Science Adviser to the Secretary, Department of the Interior.

S. William Gouse, Jr., Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President.

John H. Ludwig, Assistant Commissioner for Science and Technology, National Air Pollution Control Administration.

*The interim nature of this report must be emphasized. A complete report will follow in about 6 months. 1 Presently, Dean of the Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College.

Louis J. Schoen, Office of Science and Technology, National Air Pollution Control Administration.

Richard L. Strombotne, Physicist, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Systems Development and Technology, Department of Transportation.

Thomas C. Winter, Jr., Council on Environmental Quality.

SUMMARY-THE IMPLICATIONS OF LEAD REMOVAL FROM AUTOMOTIVE FUEL

This interim report of the Panel on Automotive Fuels and Air Pollution deals with the effects of lead-containing fuel additives on emissions from gasolinepiston engines. The final report will deal more fully with the question of fuel composition as called for by the Charter.

Today's higher octane fuels enable more powerful and efficient engines to be built. The addition of lead alkyls is the least expensive way to increase the octane rating of motor fuel. However, these additives interfere with the development of exhaust treatment systems, especially those using catalysts. Lead salts in automobile exhaust tend to inactivate catalysts.

Proposed 1975 Department of Health, Education and Welfare (HEW) emission standards call for a dramatic improvement in emission control. There are no production-proven devices available at this time to meet these standards. A satisfactory device must be effective for many thousands of miles of consumer driving and must be economical in terms of initial cost and fuel consumption. The cost of a 10 percent fuel economy penalty could well exceed the cost of lead reduction. The development of a variety of devices depends on the assurance that an unleaded fuel will be generally available when needed. The Panel believes that this can best be achieved through Federal action, however the Federal government has not yet established its authority to control fuel additives. Therefore:

Recommendation I.-Legislation should be enacted to establish the authority of the Federal government to regulate fuel additives. The power to make such regulations should be granted to the Secretary of HEW or, in the event of a reorganization, to the agency charged with the regulation of automotive emissions.

Regulations should take account of the following findings of the Panel:

It is impossible to remove all of the lead from motor fuel immediately and still maintain present octane levels, e.g., 94 octane in "Regular" and 100 octane in "Premium". To do so would require the construction of 5 to 10 billion dollars of refinery equipment in addition to that needed for normal replacement and increases in annual fuel volume. Such equipment would take many years to build.

Automobile manufacturers have announced that over 90% of the cars produced in the 1971 model year will be designed to run on 91 octane fuel. This policy will probably continue for the next few model years so that by 1975 over half of the cars on the road will be able to use 91 octane gasoline.

The production of an unleaded fuel, even of 91 octane, will require the construction of some additional refining facilities. The process construction industry is not presently working to capacity. However, 24 months is the minimum time required, from decision to full operation, for construction of major refinery equipment.

The economic burden of producing an unleaded gasoline of desired octane will fall heavily on small refiners.

Emission control technology is evolving rapidly. The regulatory process should be flexible enough to account for and encourage innovation.

Some catalytic devices can be destroyed by just one tankful of high-leaded fuel. Assurances are needed that leaded fuel will not be used in cars whose emission control devices can be ruined by lead.

Timing

Detailed regulations should be made after careful consideration of the economic effects of proposed rules. This process may take several months. However, both the automotive and petroleum industries must know soon what fuel and engine requirements will be for the 1975 model year. The Panel believes that early definitive action on the part of the Federal government is required to provide conditions conducive to the development of a wide variety of emission control devices and to assure smooth adjustments by the industries affected. Therefore: Recommendation II.-The regulatory agency should immediately declare its intention to require the general availability of an unleaded grade of gasoline by July 1, 1974.

Low-Lead Fuel

The Panel also believes that the early availability of low-leaded, low octane fuel is advisable. High lead concentration in fuel contribute to increased hydrocarbon emissions from existing cars. In addition to reduced hydrocarbon emissions, the use of this low-leaded fuel will provide an appropriate time period for customer acceptance of lower octane fuel and will allow for the accumulation of field experience on the performance of new low-octane cars with prototypes of advanced emission control systems that can use it. Therefore:

Recommendation III.-The regulations should be designed to provide for nation-wide availability of a low-leaded fuel no later than the end of calendar 1972.

Various large refiners have the ability to meet small market demands for low leaded (or unleaded) fuel now. Refiners who have the capability to produce low leaded (or unleaded) fuels at an early date should be encouraged to do so now. Some parts of the country, such as the West Coast, have significantly greater capacity for the production of low-leaded fuel than the nation as a whole. These regions may want to require the production of such fuel at an earlier date and should be encouraged to do so.

Price Incentives

Unleaded, 91 octane fuel will cost more to produce than the present highleaded, 94 octane "Regular" gasoline, and will probably cost more at the pump. Cars designed for 91 octane fuel can also use the higher-leaded, 94 octane fuel. Motorists will be tempted to use the higher-leaded fuel by the lower cost. It is possible, through changes in taxation or subsidy to reverse this cost difference. The Panel believes that it is in the interest of the national automotive emission control program to do so. Therefore:

Recommendation IV.-Federal tax or subsidy policies concerning automotive fuels should be modified to provide incentive for the purchase of unleaded and low-leaded fuels.

This can be accomplished by increasing the tax on leaded gasoline, by placing a tax on the lead additive, by decreasing the tax on unleaded fuel, by direct subsidy or by accelerated depreciation schedules for additional refinery equipment to be used to produce unleaded fuel.

The Panel does not specifically recommend any one of these. It does recommend action that will bring about an incentive for the purchase of the low-lead fuel. These incentives will encourage some refiners to produce and market unleaded fuel in advance of the dates provided in the previous recommendation.

Public Notification of Octane Increases

Increased refinery investment and the cost of gasoline depend strongly on the octane requirements of cars produced after 1970. Increased octane requirements, i.e., a new "octane race," would bring about the need for more refinery investment which could interfere with the program to produce unleaded fuel. Present antitrust laws prevent companies from making collective agreements in private, concerning octane requirements of automobiles. It is in the public interest that petroleum refiners receive adequate warning of contemplated changes in automotive fuel requirements in time to make refinery changes in an orderly manner. Therefore:

Recommendation V.-Changes in future fuel requirements should be reported by the automobile manufacturers to the regulatory agency at least two years in advance of production, and such information should be made public. Further, the regulatory agency should encourage automobile manufacturers to announce publicly at least a four-year moratorium on increases in engine octane requirements starting in 1971.

Inspection Programs

The Panel also notes the effect of insufficient maintenance of present cars on total vehicle emissions. The average level of emissions from existing cards can be reduced by engine tune-ups. The effect is particularly significant in the case of older cars which have not been well maintained. Therefore:

Recommendation VI.—The regulatory agency should encourage States to include an auto emission check as part of the State vehicle inspection programs and coordinate these programs nationally.

Introduction and Background of Panel Study

Public concern over the automotive as an important source of air pollutants began about fifteen years ago when automotive emissions were shown to be the major contributor to smog formation in the Los Angeles basin. Controls on these emissions began in California in 1962 with the restriction that crankcase exhaust could no longer be vented to the atmosphere. Since then, limitations have been imposed nationally on the amount of carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbons in automotive exhaust. Regulations on nitrogen oxides in exhaust will begin in 1972 in California. Proposed national standards call for regulation of nitrogen oxides nationally in 1973 and for limits on particulate emissions in 1975. (Table I) The general level of emissions permitted will be decreased markedly by the proposed 1975 HEW standards.

The general public concern with the environment and the statements by automobile manufacturers that lead additives in gasoline interfere with their ability to meet these exhaust standards gave rise to the recent debate on the elimination of lead additives to gasoline.

In late 1969, to seek more accurate information on lead in gasoline, the National Air Pollution Control Administration suggested to the Department of Commerce Technical Advisory Board that a Panel be created to make a study and NAPCA briefed CTAB on the subject in December 1969.

In addition, on January 14, 1970, Dr. Lee A. DuBridge, Science Adviser to the President, acting in his capacity as Executive Secretary of the President's Environmental Quality Council, wrote to the Secretary of Commerce, Maurice H. Stans, to ask for the assistance of the Department of Commerce Technical Advisory Board in performing certain portions of this study. CTAB was selected because of its 1967 study entitled "The Automobile and Air Pollution."

On January 26, 1970, the Secretary of Commerce replied affirmatively to Dr. DuBridge informing him that CTAB, at its January 22nd meeting, had started to form a Panel to conduct the study and had begun drafting a charter. The Panel met first on March 23-24 at Berkeley, California. The Panel has held five formal meetings as a full unit to meet with representatives of various organizations and to review the work of its three Subpanels. The first Subpanel was "Pollution Chemistry" chaired by John D. Baldeschwieler, the second "The Automobile" chaired by James L. Dooley, and the third "Refinery Economics" chaired by Donald L. Katz. Presentations were made to the Panel and its Subpanels by thirty-two different organizations. These organizations are listed in Appendix A.

During the discussions leading to the establishment of the Panel, the urgency of the situation was emphasized. The Panel was asked to submit a preliminary report dealing only with the cost and consequences of removing lead from gasoline within 90 days. Thus, it must be emphasized that this report is a preliminary one and will be followed in about six months by a full report dealing with the broader subject of changes in fuel composition and additives.

This report has been sponsored by the Department of Health, Education and Welfare (specifically, the National Air Pollution Control Administration) the Department of Transportation, and the Department of Commerce.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF LEAD REMOVAL FROM AUTOMOTIVE FUEL 2

Benefits of Lead

Higher compression in automotive engines permits greater power and better fuel mileage for a given size engine. The compression ratio of an engine is limited by knock, the uncontrolled and explosive combustion of the fuel-air charge in engine cylinders which results in severe power loss, possible engine damage and increased nitrogen oxide emissions. A measure of a fuel's resistance to knock is its octane number; the higher the number, the higher the resistance to knock. A typical premium grade fuel has an unleaded octane rating of about 93-94 which is increased to over 100 by the addition of about 2.7 grams of lead (2.55 ml of lead alkyls) per gallon.

The octane rating of a fuel is influenced by the types and amounts of hydrocarbons in the base stock as well as by the amount of lead added. Lead addition is the cheapest way to achieve the final 6-8 octane numbers. If lead were to be

2 This interim report of the Panel on Automotive Fuels and Air Pollution deals with the question of lead additives to fuels. The final report will deal more fully with the question of fuel composition as indicated by the charter.

removed from motor fuels, these additional octane numbers would have to be provided by higher concentrations of more expensive blending components. New equipment would have to be built to produce these components, resulting in additional investments by refiners. It should be noted that it is physically impossible to remove all of the lead from gasoline immediately and also maintain present octane levels without building additional refining equipment, which would take many years to build. Additionally, the removal of lead means an increase in crude oil consumption and increased processing costs which would result in higher gasoline costs to the motorist.

Benefits of Lead Removal

The case for the reduction or elimination of lead in automotive fuel is based on: (1) the deleterious effect of lead on potentially important emission control devices needed to meet increasingly stringent future emission standards; (2) the deleterious effect of lead on automobile emission levels and on control devices presently on cars and;

(3) the possible health hazards of increased lead concentrations in the atmosphere due to emissions of lead salts from cars.

Proposed national emission standards for 1975 call for limits on particulate emissions from cars in addition to a considerable decrease in permissible hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide emissions. There are, at present, no production-proven devices to meet these standards. These devices must be reasonably inexpensive and must not result in severe penalties in fuel economy. A device costing $100 would add about one billion dollars to the cost of new cars sold each year and a 10 percent decrease in fuel economy costs about $30 per year per car, or an annual 3 billion dollars nationally if all cars suffered this penalty.

Catalytic reactors, a potentially important and economically attractive class of devices, are incompatible with present high levels of lead in gasoline. Rapid degeneration of presently known catalysts occurs when these devices are used on automotive exhaust gasses containing large amounts of lead salts. Lead salts and scavengers in engine exhausts also tend to corrode the materials in thermal exhaust reactors necessitating the use of more expensive materials of construction. In addition, lead salts plug some recirculation systems proposed for nitrogen oxide control. It has been noted that hydrocarbon emission levels from cars are influenced by mileage accumulation, and also by the level of lead additives. Hydrocrabon emissions rise with mileage on either fuel; however use of leaded fuels produces greater increases than unleaded fuel. Disagreement concerning the magnitude of this effect centers strongly on the way the mileage is accumulated. A recent, extensive study by the Coordinating Research Council shows that the net lead effect on increased hydrocarbon emissions is about 20 percent in rapid mileage accumulations and 7 percent in typical customer driving.

The situation regarding the health effects of lead is less clear. There is no universal agreement concerning the effects of present doses of lead ingested by city dwellers. Other groups are presently evaluating data on effects of lead on human health in the development of air quality criteria. These health criteria in addition to the factors discussed in this report, should be considered in the development of standards and the strategies necessary to meet such standards.

Effects of Lead Reduction

The removal of lead from motor fuel requires that other changes be made in fuel composition to maintain octane levels. Because of limited refinery capacity to produce high octane blending components, it is impossible to remove all of the lead from motor fuel immediately and still maintain present octane levels (94 in Regular and 100 in Premium). It has been argued that the octane requirements of existing cars can be lowered by a simple engine adjustment, spark retardation. Spark retardation lowers engine octane requirements and also lowers the amount of nitrogen oxides in the exhaust. However, it also results in losses in fuel economy of between 5 and 10 percent and in engine overheating unless special compensating devices are installed. These devices have been made available in "kit" form and are now being sold by some auto manufacturers. These and other factors of consumer acceptability cause the Panel to believe that voluntary engine adjustments by the public will not be made on a wide enough scale to become a major factor nationally.

The effect of Leaded and Unleaded Gasolines on Exhaust Emissions Caused by Combustion Chamber Deposits CAPE-3-68, June 10, 1970, Coordinating Research Council, New York, New York.