Beasley, Joseph D., M.D., president, Family Planning, Inc. Bell, David E., executive vice president, the Ford Foundation. Bright, Margaret, School of Hygiene and Public Health; the Johns Hopkins University. Chandler, Marilyn B., (San Marino, Calif.). Cornely, Paul B., M.D., chairman, Department of Community Health Practice, Howard University College of Medicine. Davis, Lawrence A.,3 president, Arkansas Agricultural, Mechanical, and Normal College. Duncan, Otis Dudley, associate director, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan. Ferre, Antonio Luis, president, Puerto Rican Cement Co., Inc. Flint, Joan F., (Tulsa, Okla.). Hansberger, R. V., chairman of the board, Boise Cascade Corp. Johnson, D. Gale, professor, Department of Economics, University of Chicago. Meyer, John R., president, National Bureau of Economic Research. Rummonds, James S., law student, Stanford University. Salyer, Stephen L., student, Davidson College. Samuel, Howard D., senior vice president, Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America. Woods, George D., director and consultant, the First Boston Corp. Mr. BOLAND. What is the total number? Mr. ROCKEFELLER. Twenty-four, including the four Members of Congress. We have had a few changes, but very few. POPULATION ESTIMATE-YEAR 2000 Mr. BOLAND. I understand that the population estimate for the year 2000 has recently been revised. What was the original projection for population for the year 2000? Mr. ROCKEFELLER. May I refer to Professor Westoff? Mr. WESTOFF. There was a great deal of publicity about the 1967 projections which were estimating a population that might reach 300 million by the year 2000. That was subsequently revised in 1970 downward, and I guess the projections which would carry current birth rates forward to the year 2000 would result in-what is it? Mr. PARKE. The revision of the projection that called for 300 million in the year 2000 now calls for 300 million in the year 2008. Mr. BOLAND. What accounted for the revision? Mr. WESTOFF. The decline in the birth rate. INVENTORY OF NATURAL RESOURCES Mr. BOLAND. Last year I recall asking this Commission if it had an inventory of our natural resources. Mr. Huey who testified at that time said that he was not in a position to answer. It is a very important question, one that you have indicated in your statement you are looking into. Do you have an inventory of our natural resources? Mr. WESTOFF. The answer is sort of yes and no. We have one of the contracts, and as a matter of fact the largest contract we have developed to date, with Resources for the Future. Mr. BOLAND. With whom? Effective Jan. 6, 1971. Mr. WESTOFF. An organization in Washington called Resources for the Future which is a group of economists whose main concern is estimating the adequacy of natural resources in the United States. So we have the entire resource of that organization which does have an extensive inventory of natural resources. Mr. TALCOTT. Can we get a list of those people, who they are, what their address is, and how long they have been in operation? Mr. ROCKEFELLER. You mean for that particular group? Mr. TALCOTT. Yes. Mr. BOLAND. I have another question here with respect to contracts. Will you supply for the record the individuals that comprise that group? Mr. ROCKEFELLER. You mean board and staff? Mr. WESTOFF. The people doing the work. (The information follows:) Contractor.-Resources for the Future, Inc., 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, NW., Washington, D.C., 20036. Resources for the Future, Inc. is a private, nonprofit corporation dedicated to advancing the development, conservation, and efficient use of natural resources through programs of research and education. It was established in 1952 with the cooperation of the Ford Foundation and its work since then has been supported by grants from that Foundation. COST: $150,000 Expected Results.-Resources for the Future will prepare reports assessing the effects of population change on the Nation's resources and environment. On the basis of its studies, Resources for the Future will advise the commission as to what patterns of population growth and distribution would be consistent with rational use of resources and the environment, as well as how the Nation might accommodate increased numbers and/or density of population without compounding existing resource and environmental problems. Resources for the Future will analyze the effects of population size, composition, and distribution on the quality of environmental systems and the demand for resource commodities. Resources for the Future will present information on the implications of population growth for use of recreational resources, demand for major fuels, and several types of pollution-air, water, land, and noise pollution. Waste disposal and byproducts of energy consumption will be investigated to illustrate how population growth might play a role in each of these types of pollution. The Resources for the Future reports will include the effect of population change on past patterns of resource use, the resource and environmental consequences of various changes in technology and/or institutions as they modify the impact of population growth; and the effects of population-related demands for resources in the United States on the world resource picture. The commission will use these results in meeting its obligations to present information on "the impact of population growth on environmental pollution and on the depletion of natural resources" (Public Law 912-13, sec. 4). Project staff.-The following staff members of Resources for the Future are participating in the research described above on behalf of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future: Project Director, RFF Research Project for Commission on Population Growth and the American Future.-Ronald G. Ridker, Program Director Population Studies. Ph. D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin, 1958; Fulbright Scholar, University of Oslo, 1955. Professor of Economics, Washington University for 8 years, and on the faculty of Syracuse University for 1 year; at Brookings Institution for 1 year; Economic advisor to AID in India for 2 years. Author of "The Economics of Air Pollution" and articles on population, economic growth, and pollution. Joseph L. Fisher, president, Resources for the Future, Inc. B.S., Bowdoin College, 1935; M.A., Harvard, 1938; Ph. D., 1947; M.A., George Washington University, 1951; Doctoral dissertation, Alaska.-The Development of our Arctic Frontier, 1947. Publications.-"Resources in America's Future" (coauthor), 1963; "World Prospects for Natural Resources" (coauthor), 1964. Charles J. Cicchetti. A.B., Colorado College, 1965; Ph. D., Rutgers University, 1969; Doctoral dissertation, "An Applied Econometric Analysis of the Outdoor Recreation Market," 1969. Publications.-"The Demand and Supply of Outdoor Recreation," 1969. Leonard L. Fischman. A.B., N.Y.U., 1937; M.A., American University, 1939. Publications. "Resources in America's Future" (coauthor), 1963; "Forecasting the Demand for Minerals," 1968; Minerals Yearbook, 1960. Allen V. Kneese. B.S., Southwest Texas State, 1951; M.A., Colorado University, 1953; Ph. D., Indiana University, 1956; Doctoral dissertation, "Antitrust Policy," 1956. Publications.-"Managing Water Quality-Economics, Technology Institutions" (coauthor), 1968; "Quality of the Environment" (coauthor), 1965; “Production, Consumption, and Externalities" (coauthor), American Economic Review, June 1969. Hans H. Landsberg. B.S., London School of Economics, 1936; M.A., Columbia, 1941. Publications. "Resources in America's Future" (coauthor), 1963; "Natural Resources for U.S. Growth," 1964; "Energy in the United States," 1968. SUBCONTRACTOR Robert Ayres, vice president, International Research Technology Corp. Ph. D. in physics. Publications.-"Economics and the Environment: A Materials Ballance Approach," and author of a forthcoming book on prospects for changes in the automobile. POPULATION CONTROL Mr. BOLAND. Part of the problem you were to tackle dealt with population control. Have you gotten into this area yet, and can you tell us of any findings in this area so far? Mr. WESTOFF. We have a number of studies underway. One of them is a study which I am personally involved with, which is a national study-national interview study-involving a large sample of married women of reproductive age. This is going to constitute the basis for estimating the extent of unwanted childbearing in the United States. This is a similar study to that conducted in 1965, in which we had estimated that something like 20 percent of all births that occurred between 1960 and 1965 had been unwanted by their parents. The demographic as well as the social and psychological impact of this is considerable. So that kind of project is very much underway. We also have another project in which we are trying to look at the future developments in research on birth control technology-what is around the corner in terms of improvements in oral contraception and various other methods. RESEARCH CONTRACTORS Mr. BOLAND. Will you supply for the record the name of the contractor, mission, the cost, and the expected result of each major contract you have awarded? Mr. WESTOFF. Yes. (The information follows:) 1. Contractor.-Resources for the Future, Inc., 1755 Massachusetts Avenue NW., Washington, D.C. 20036. Resources for the Future, Inc., is a private, nonprofit corporation dedicated to advancing the development, conservation, and efficient use of natural resources through programs of research and education. It was established in 1952 with the cooperation of the Ford Foundation, and its work since then has been supported by grants from that foundation. COST: $150,000 Expected results.-Resources for the Future will prepare reports assessing the effects of population change on the Nation's resources and environment. On the basis of its studies, Resources for the Future will advise the Commission as to what patterns of population growth and distribution would be consistent with rational use of resources and the environment, as well as how the Nation might accommodate increased numbers and/or density of population without compounding existing resource and environmental problems. Resources for the Future will analyze the effects of population size, composition, and distribution on the quality of environmental systems and the demand for resource commodities. Resources for the Future will present information on the implications of population growth for use of recreational resources, demand for major fuels, and several types of pollution-air, water, land, and noise pollution. Waste disposal and byproducts of energy consumption will be investigated to illustrate how population growth might play a role in each of these types of pollution. The Resources for the Future reports will include the effect of population change on past patterns of resource use, the resource and environmental consequences of various changes in technology and/or institutions as they modify the impact of population growth; and the effects of population-related demands for resources in the United States on the world resource picture. The commission will use these results in meeting its obligations to present information on "the impact of population growth on environmental pollution and on the depletion of natural resources" (Public Law 912-13, sec. 4). 2. Contractor.-RAND Corp., Santa Monica, Calif. Established in 1946, Rand is a private nonprofit organization engaged entirely in research and analysis of problems affecting American security and the public welfare. It is a national research center concerned primarily, but not exclusively, with the kinds of problems public leaders face in making policy choices. Although Rand originally concentrated on questions of national security, in recent years, Rand has increasingly applied its research methods and skills to problems directly affecting the lives of Americans at home. For over two decades RAND has worked on some facets of these problems-the economics and policies of water supply, urban transportation, teacher salaries in secondary schools, among others. Today it is a leader among research institutions working to solve complex social problems. The RAND Corp. has had considerable experience in making projections of the type required in this contract. COST: $84,475 Expected results: Estimates of the future demands for facilities and personnel that projected population trends will impose in the areas of health, education, welfare and passenger transportation. The commission will use these estimates in meeting its obligations to present information on "the resources in the public sector of the economy that will be required to deal with the anticipated growth in population;" and "the ways in which population growth may affect the activities of Federal, State, and local government" (Public Law 91-213, sec. 4). Under this contract, the RAND Corp. will prepare reports on the future demands for these services, both in money and in physical terms, such as school rooms, teachers, hospitals, etc. These reports will present analyses of the ways in which population affects these demands. Estimates will be made of the portion of the demands that will be met by the public sector. 3. Contractor.-RAND Corp., Santa Monica, Calif. COST: $46,750 Expected results.-RAND will research and prepare reports on: 1. Dimensions of the population problem in addition to excess fertility; how growth is experienced locally in areas of increasing and decreasing population; issues in the regional balance of population, metropolitan concentration, and distribution of population within urban areas. 2. The migration process, including the characteristics of internal migrants within the United States, the determinants of migration, and attitudes toward migration. 57-916 0-71—2 3. The disparities between the individual and collective consequences of regional and intrametropolitan population distribution and movement. 4. The current and probable future impact of immigration on the geographical distribution of population within the United States and its implications for immigration policy. The principal professional services will be performed by Dr. Peter Morrison, a leading expert in the field of population migration, in consultation with economists and other experts on the RÂND staff. The commission will use the results of this research in meeting its obligations to present information on "the probable course of population growth, internal migration, and related demographic developments between now and the year 2000" (Public Law 91-213, sec. 4). 4. Contractor.-ULI-The Urban Land Institute, 1200 18th Street NW., Washington, D.C. ULI is an independent, nonprofit research and educational organization incorporated on December 14, 1936, to improve the quality and standards of land use and development. The institute is committed to conduct practical research in the various fields of real estate knowledge; identify and interpret land use trends in relation to the changing economic, social, and civic needs of the Nation and disseminate pertinent information leading to orderly and more efficient use and development of land. ULI has sponsored and published major work on projections of population redistribution and metropolitan growth, under the scientific leadership of Dr. Jerome P. Pickard, including Dimensions of Metropolitanism (1967-68) and Metropolitanization of the United States (1959). COST: $19,000 The commission is also obtaining additional services of Dr. Pickard through a reimbursable arrangement whereby Dr. Pickard is detailed part time to the commission staff from the staff of the Appalachian Regional Commission, where he is employed. Estimated cost of this detail is $6,000, bringing the total cost of the project to $25,000. Expected results.-Projections to the year 2000 of the geographical scope and the population of individual metropolitan areas of 100,000 population or more, and the nonmetropolitan balance of the population, by region. This information, which will not be available from the various projections which the Census Bureau is preparing, will assist the commission in meeting its obligation to present information on "the probable course of population growth, internal migration, and related demographic developments between now and the year 2000" (Public Law 91-213, sec. 4). These projections will be used by other contractors engaged in estimating the impact of projected population redistribution, as well as growth, on such concerns of the commission as costs of Government services, resources, and the environment. 5. Contractor.-U.S. Bureau of the Census, Suitland, Md. COST: $27,000 Expected results.-Special tabulations from the 1970 Census showing changes in population size and composition, 1960-70, for small areas of the Nation. This information will show how the population has shifted from region to region, from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan areas, and from central city to suburb; the degree to which different groups of the population have participated in these movements; and how the shifts have altered the size and character of the areas in question. This material will provide the commission with the latest available data on which to develop an understanding of recent changes and their implications for the future course of population redistribution in line with its responsibilities under section 4, Public Law 91-213. 6. Contractor.-Institute of Society, Ethics, and the Life Sciences, 623 Warburton Avenue, Hastings-on-Hudson, N.Y. Established in 1969 as a nonprofit, taxexempt, research and educational organization, the institute brings together eminent doctors, lawyers, theologians, biologists, social scientists, and others for the purpose of examining ethical problems presented by technological advances in the life sciences, such as biology and medicine, and advancing orderly and sustained research on these problems and how to resolve them. |