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TRENDS IN COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

During April nonagricultural employment rose almost $400,000, to a total of $37,617,000. This lifted the adjusted index for total factory employment to a new high of 121.7 (1923-5 = 100) and established the largest monthly gain of the current year on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Business continued to receive strong support from construction activity. April awards as reported by F. W. Dodge Corporation amounted to 407 million dollars compared with 480 million dollars in the previous month. Residential awards rose from 148 million dollars to 166 million dollars over the period.

Wholesale Prices

Commodity prices in many wholesale markets continued to move upward sharply during the week ended May 24. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' index of nearly 900 price series rose 0.5 percent to a new high since mid-October 1937.

The tight shipping situation, the signing of the bill for higher crop loans, and continued heavy demand and speculation in commodity markets were largely responsible for the current widespread increase, it was said.

Marked advances were reported for hides and skins, grains, petroleum products, oils and fats and raw cotton and wool.

The all-commodity index, which has risen steadily since the first week in March and rather sharply the past 3 weeks, now stands at 85.0 percent of the 1926 average. This represents a gain of nearly 2 percent over the past 4 weeks and more than 9 percent over the corresponding week of 1940.

From the 1939 low point, the week ended August 19, the general level for the current week is approximately 14 percent higher with farm products showing the greatest increase, 28 percent. Textile prices have risen 23 percent; foods, 20 percent; hides and leather

products, 15 percent; and building materials and chemicals and allied products, more than 12 percent.

With the exception of foods, which deolined 0.3 percent because of lower prices for meats, fruits and raw sugar, each of the 10 major groups of commodities contributed to the rise during the week. The increases range from 0.1 percent for metals and metal products to 1.3 percent for farm products.

Influenced largely by the sharp advances in market prices for farm products, the index for raw materials is 12 percent above a year ago; semimanufactured articles are nearly 11 percent higher and manufactured commodities 7 percent.

Automobile Financing for April

According to preliminary estimates of the Department of Commerce, the daily average dollar volume of retail financing of new passenger automobiles in April 1941 increased 18.8 percent from March. In the same period a year ago, there was rise in daily average financing of 15.1 percent.

The daily average volume of new automobile financing in April 1941 is estimated at 45.5 percent above the same month last year, or more than the 40.9 percent gain recorded in March from the preceding year.

Estimated total new automobile financing during the first 4 months of 1941, including a preliminary figure for April, was 42.6 percent above the same period of 1940 and 26.7 percent above the first 4 months of 1937.

Current month preliminary estimates of automobile financing are based upon figures reported to the Bureau of the Census by a sample group of large finance companies in continuous operation since 1929. The dollar volume of these organizations represents over three-fourths of the automobile finance business written by all finance companies reporting to the Bureau of the Census.

Rubber Boots and Shoes

Approximately four-tenths, 40.3 percent, of the rubber boots and shoes produced in the United States in 1939 were marketed by selling organizations owned and operated by manufacturers. An additional 29.2 percent went direct to retailers for resale, and 18.0 percent to wholesalers and jobbers. Sales from point of production to commercial, governmental, etc. users amounted to 8.8 percent of the total 1939 output. Relatively small amounts were produced for export and for sale direct to consumers at retail.

These facts were announced today by the Bureau of the Census, in a report on the primary channels used by manufacturers of rubber boots and shoes in disposing of their products.

This industry, as reported by the Census of Manufactures, consisted of 13 establishments with value or products for the year 1939 amounting to $49,980,591 (preliminary figure). Sales and intra-company transfers of these 13 plants amounted to $52,428,000.

Sales as shown in this report may differ from value of products for several reasons: (1) Sales are affected by changes in inventory between the beginning and end of the year; (2) in a few instances, sales were reported on the basis of selling price rather than value of products; and (3) some plants in the industry purchase and sell goods which they do not process.

The latter, included in sales but not in value of products, amounted to $2,900,000.

Illuminating Glassware

Sales of illuminating glassware manufacturers, based upon reports from 12 firms, were 37 percent higher in April 1941 than during the same month a year ago. This is the highest increase shown in this series since its inception in September 1939. Sales amounted to $727,000 in April for these firms, which represented a decrease of 3 percent from March 1941.

This monthly survey by the Bureau of the Census is conducted in cooperation with the American Glassware Association.

The gain shown for April over the same month of last year is an acceleration of the upward trend which started in November 1940 with an 8 percent increase over November 1939. December 1940 was up 12 percent over December 1939, while January, February and March continued the upward movement with increases of 16, 25 and 33 percent, respectively, over the corresponding months of 1940.

For the first 4 months of 1941, gains in sales over the same period of 1940 amounted to 27 percent. The increase this April indicates that the industry is improving upon the gains reported last year when April 1940 was 3 percent over April 1939.

Tungsten

Tungsten mines and mills had an output in 1939 valued at $3,354,000 at points of production, about four and one-half times that of 1929, according to the preliminary figures of the Census. These mines and mills produced 3,240 short tons of direct-shipping ore and concentrates containing 3,059,000 pounds of tungsten.

Since 1929 the United States has produced only about half of the tungsten that it consumed. During this period there has been a tariff on imported tungsten ores and concentrates that, since 1930, has amounted to $0.50 per pound of tungsten content. Because of the inadequacy of the domestic supply and the fact that the metal and its alloys have found many important uses for which, with the possible exception of molybdenum, no adequate substitutes exist, tungsten has been classed by the Army and Navy Munitions Board as a "strategic material" for national defense.

The Federal Government has taken steps to preserve and augment the supply of tungsten by authorizing and financing the accumulation of reserve stocks of tungsten and by aiding the search for, and appraisal of, new

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units or vehicles reported as assembled in foreign countries from parts made in the United States, for April 1941, consisted of 462,257 vehicles, of which 374,979 were passenger cars and 87,278 commercial cars, trucks, or road tractors, as compared with 507,868 vehicles in March 1941, 432,746 vehicles in April 1940, and 337,375 vehicles in April 1939. These statistics comprise data for the entire industry.

Statistics for 1941 are based on data received from 69 manufacturers in the United States, 20 making passenger cars and 63 making commercial cars, trucks, or road tractors (14 of the 20 passenger car manufacturers also making commercial cars, trucks, or road tractors).

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RECENT CENSUS RELEASES

The Census Bureau issued the following releases on the Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, copies of which may be obtained from the Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. Population and Housing Units in the Metropolitan Districts. (List upon request.) Population: Preliminary Figures on Employment and Unemployment: March 24-30. (List upon request.)

Population and Housing Units by Census Tracts (Preliminary). (List upon request.) Population and Housing Units in the Territory of Hawaii: 1940.

Population: Preliminary Population Estimates for Continental United States by Months, May 1 to July 1, 1940.

Population: Population Characteristics (Preliminary) 1940. (List upon request.) Population: Density of Population by States -1940.

Population: Age and Sex Composition of Cities of 250,000 to 500,000 Inhabitants (Preliminary)

1940.

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LUMBER SURVEY

EDITORIAL NOTE: The Lumber Survey Committee at the request of the Secretary of Commerce, has completed its quarterly analysis of Lumber Movement, Consumption and Stocks, including stocks as of March 31, 1941, and prospective consumption for the second quarter of 1941. The summary of the 40th quarterly report of the Committee follows.

Although the peak of lumber demand for cantonments may have been reached, substantial lumber buying for Army Quartermaster construction projects continues. Alhough no new cantonment building program is imminent, a considerable quantity of additional construction, planned for existing camps and cantonments, will require a total of about 150,000,000 feet of lumber.

If the expanded army program, now in stage of preliminary discussion and selection of camp sites, tentatively involving 28 new major camps is undertaken further large purchases will be necessary in addition to the 266,000,000 board feet now allocated for Government use. Of this amount 50 percent is stipulated to be on pile by May 1, at over a hundred bases of supply throughout the country. No orders for shipments of this "stock pile" reserve had been booked as of May 1.

Meantime the defense housing of the Covernment is taking much lumber. As of April 26, the Federal Works Administrator reported that the total number of dwelling units for defense housing approved to date was 53,888 and the total number under contract, 37,175. These figures include defense projects of the U. S. Housing Authority, Public Building Administration and other agencies.

The War and Navy Departments are buying lumber for the Atlantic island bases, the War Department alone probably needing 70 million feet. In addition considerable lumber is being purchased for small navy craft and heavy timters and piling for shipyards. The prospect is for a more substantial use ultimately of selected lumber and timber products in shipbuilding and aircraft.

Railroad demand is a strong feature of the lumber market today and promises so to continue during the current quarter. Car material purchases in the main have been conservative. The demand has been steady and is apparently increasing.

March, 1941, was the lowest month in many years in softwood export volume and the first quarter, the lowest quarter-year. This period and the previous 3 months are the first in history in which lumber imports exceed exports. Softwood imports in March were 2.6 times exports. Although the first quarter hardwood exports were larger than a year ago, they were comparatively low.

In April lumber production was on an upward trend. In the week ended April 19, production was the heaviest since last October. The downward movement of softwood lumber stocks seems to have been checked. For the first time in a decade softwood lumber stocks in hands of retail and wholesale distributors are in excess of the volume of mill stocks. Hardwood stocks are still declining. The movement of hardwood lumber continues gradually to increase.

Lumber Consumption

Lumber consumption (including exports and including lumber for National Defense purposes) in the second quarter of 1941 is estimated at 8,228 million feet, compared with 7,488 million feet in the first quarter and 7,273 million feet in the second quarter of 1940.

The gain over last year is 13 percent for the second quarter, and 18 percent for the half-year.

Stocks

National lumber stocks at the mills on March 31, 1941, based upon reports from regional associations, were approximately 6,333 million feet, a decline of about 3 percent from December 31, 1940. Some regions, however, showed considerable increases.

On February 28, stocks were approximately 6,331 million feet. The end of March increase over the month before was 1 percent for softwoods. Hardwood stocks declined 3 percent in March. As of April 26, the ratio of unfilled orders to gross stocks was 37 percent, compared with 22 percent a year ago.

Production

Current lumber production is about 13 percent above 1940, compared with 17 percent in the first quarter of the year. If this

trend continues, the 6 months' increase over 1940 will be about 14 percent, or a half year's production of approximately 14.3 billion feet.

This is slightly below the second half of 1940. It now appears that the year 1941 may show a total output of about 30 billion feet, compared with about 27 billion in 1940.

Sales

Reports from retail yards in all parts of the country to the National Retail Lumber Dealers Association, show 4 percent increase in lumber yard stocks on March 31 as compared with the last of February, and nearly 15 percent gain as compared with December 31, 1940.

Retail lumber sales in March were 29 percent greater than in February. Due partly to unfavorable weather and the shorter month, February sales were 19 percent below January.

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