explicitly give their assumptions for future GNP growth rates. Of these twelve, the median growth rate assumption is 4 percent per year. This rate has been a rather high estimate for the actual rate over the past few years. As reported by the Department of Commerce, the actual growth rates in real GNP have recently been: If future growth rates are to continue at the 2.4 percent average rate of the past five years, assumed rates will have to be revised. If they continue at the 4.0 percent average of the past twelve years, assumed rates will be fairly accurate. (3) An indication of the significance of the different assumptions about economic variables can be found in the U. S. Department of the Interior's Energy Model for the United States, DOI 1968. With growth rates of 1.0 percent and 2.5 percent for population and GNP, respectively, total energy consumption for 1980 is estimated to be 73.9 quadrillion BTU's; with growth rates of 1.6 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, total energy consumption is estimated at 88.1 quadrillion BTU's; the second forecast is about 19 percent greater than the first. Study Conclusions The thirty-five studies reviewed herein were conducted by various government, industry, academic, and consultant organizations in order to forecast a particular energy item or examine a particular energy situation. In the process, many of the studies offer conclusions or make statements which reflect an attitude about the future energy situation of the United States. As is seen in the following quotations from the studies themselves, these attitudes have changed drastically since 1968. AEC-1960 (p. 2): Thus the conclusion of this study is that fossil fuels can meet energy requirements in both the United States and the remainder of the world for the rest of the century without difficulty and with only moderate increases in real costs. AEC-1962 (p. 7): Comparison of estimates of fossil fuel resources with projections of the rapidly increasing rate of energy consumption predicts that. if no additional forms of energy were utilized. we would exhaust our readily available, low-cost fossil fuels in a century or less and our presently visualized total supplies in about another century. OST-1964 (p. 28): Even with no drastic technological changes and no revolutionary shifts in energy-consumption patterns, the ag gregate energy needs of the economy should be met with no signif icant increase in energy-source prices through the end of this century. CMB-1968 (p. 58): . . . there is no apparent reason to doubt that the nation's over-all energy requirements between 1965 and 1980 can be accommodated. OOG-1968 (p. vii): The remaining petroleum resources of the United States are obviously adequate to support consumption for many years into the future. TETC-1968 (p. xx): The energy support for the anticipated 5 economic growth rate over the next 20 years will place unprecedented demands on producers, transporters and distributors of energy... There promises to be an enormous amount of inter-fuel competition not only directly but from imports and form-converted energy sources, such that normal competition can be expected to be an even more efficient resources allocator and regulatory mechanism than in the past. AGA-1968 (p. ii): These projections should not be interpreted as representing the maximum potential growth of the industry. The future effects of possible major technological breakthroughs in fuel utilization cannot be forecast and, hence, are not accounted for in these projections. On the other hand, the forecasts do allow for continued progress in current gas markets such as gas air conditioning and total energy installations. (70) BOM-1968 (p. 52): Analysis of the energy demand and required supply projections and forecasts for the year 1980 and 2000 in the case studies in the report indicates a number of potential issues or problem areas for energy. WEM-1970 (p. 15): In conclusion, I would like to offer the thesis that there are going to be some major changes in our energy system over the next thirty years. BOM-1971 (p. 19): The major tasks ahead for the resolution of energy problems are those related to (1) the need for new technologies to improve the efficiencies of present conventional energy systems, (2) the need to improve production and use of energy fuels to meet urgent requirements to end or drastically reduce air and water pollution and other environmental concerns, and (3) the need to develop entirely new energy systems because of possible limitations of the resource base and efficiencies of conventional systems. NPC-1971 (pp. 5-7): In the long run, all indigenous energy supplies that can be developed will be needed. . . At this time, it is appropriate only to note certain areas of concern that are implicit in the continuation of existing conditions. . . . The doubling of energy consumption over the next 15 years implies a sharp step-up in all kinds of measures needed to protect the environment, both at the points of energy production and use. FPC-1971 (p. 1): We foresee recurrent and spreading power shortages unless positive steps are taken, and taken soon, to remedy conditions which are slowing the orderly development of essential power supplies. Similarly, we foresee electricity prices forced to rise, rather than decline as has been the general experience in the past. . . . It is already too late to avoid some further difficulties. Power facilities cannot be built overnight and so it will take time to correct present inadequacies in generating capacity and transmission. While the pattern varies across the country, the outlook for the several years immediately ahead is largely fixed by the momentum of past events. DOI-1971 (p. 179): A number of factors can be cited to demonstrate the unequivocal need for early delivery of substantial volumes of Alaskan North Slope oil to the United States domestic market. As previously indicated, the data, projection techniques, assumptions, and forecasting results of the thirty-five studies are, in general, quite similar. The conclusions of the studies conducted since 1968, therefore, should not differ radically from those of the earlier studies. Although they do differ, the later studies usually fail to acknowledge the difference, and most of the studies fail to explain the exact criteria upon which their conclusions are based. о Printed for the use of the Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs 87-235 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE For sale by the Superintendent of Documents |