and training methods. It requires the development of irrigation systems, intensive use of fertilizers, and in the view of many experts the development of new crops even more responsive to fertilizers; this in turn involves research in plant genetics. The depredation of food supplies by animal and insect pests must be brought under control. Improved food preservation techniques need to be developed. Disease, which cuts down the caloric efficiency of ingested foods, must be fought, so that ill health does not diminish the supply of manpower during a planting season, or cause the loss of a crop. In many instances a market economy must be developed where none existed before.

What needs to be done is virtually endless, and it is all interconnected. This interconnection of very many diverse elements is characteristic of the entire modernization process in the underdeveloped countries, and the solution of the food/population equation is simply a specialized model of that process. As Roger Revelle has pointed out, if the food/population ratio is to be brought into balance it means virtually changing a whole way of life." This is the implication of overall economic development as well.

Yet whatever the social and political barriers to mounting a vigorous attack on the food/population problem, the lack of technical means to deal with the problem effectively needed to be overcome first. Until introduction of modern agricultural techniques resulted in increased food production by means of the "Green Revolution," the rate at which food production increased could not keep pace with the rate at which population increased. The rate of population increase, in turn, could probably not have been effectively curbed with the techniques of contraception then available. Had the technical means not been found for effecting revolutionary increases in food production-and in the absence of a drastic decline in the birth rate-the danger that the underdeveloped world would sink into chaos (as some have predicted) would have been greatly increased. As matters now stand there is at least a chance that development aid, abetted by a skillful and flexible diplomacy and working in conjunction with science and technology, may prevent such a tragedy. This combination could help to bring about a reasonable equilibrium between population and food resources in the so-called third world.

17 Remarks at "Symposium on the Food-People Balance," held by the National Academy of Engineering, Washington, April 29, 1970, op. cit.

III. MEETING FOOD REQUIREMENTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Human dietary requirements are a complex and incompletely researched subject. However, it is not necessary to consider refinements of modern dietary science in dealing with problems of gross malnutrition in the poor countries of the world. The specific need for minute quantities of trace elements and vitamins which usually accompany a sufficient and varied diet is of trivial importance in a region barely surviving on meagre resources of grain and less meat.

These dietary requirements may be viewed as a pyramid of food components of which calorie content (mainly supplied by sugars, starches, and fats) are at the base; proteins or "amino acids" (mainly supplied by animal products like meat, fish, poultry, milk and eggs) are next; and the vitamins and minerals (supplied in part by the foregoing, and also by fresh vegetables and fruits) are at the apex. Food concentrates and supplements have been developed for most of the known human dietary requirements, but only the most basic ones are relevant for this study.

This section of the study will consider, for each dietary component, the consequences of a deficiency, the quantities required to overcome present deficiencies, and the technological options already available or in prospect. The gist of the discussion is that for each category of foodstuffs there are technological means available for providing an adequate diet for the present and for the foreseeable future, but that the problems of doing so, and the consequences of doing so without taking other measures on the population side of the food/population balance, could have serious disadvantages economically, socially, politically, and internationally.

The political and diplomatic aspects of the food problem are developed in the next section of the study.

Defining Calorie Shortages of the LDC's

The most immediate and obvious kind of food shortage is that of energy-providing elements. Sugars, starches, and fats provide a population with human energy; they are the fuel of human labor.

VARYING NEEDS FOR FUEL-FOODS

To determine the calorie requirements of a nation it is not enough to establish an optimum quantitative diet for a standard individual and then multiply this by the numbers of population to be fed. Individual needs differ widely, being influenced by such variables as age, sex, physical size, occupation, health condition, and deepseated dietary preferences. In formulating policies to achieve sound nutritional conditions in the LDCs, governments must take account of these variables.

(13)

A New York longshoreman, of greater height and weight than his East Indian counterpart, will probably require more food to perform his work efficiently. He may well require more simply not to feel underfed. Differences like these point up the difficulty of measuring food shortages in strictly quantitative terms. Furthermore, quantitative shortages are accompanied by qualitative deficiencies. Not only are the people of the LDCs undernourished, they are malnourished as well.

Despite the difficulties in obtaining accurate data, "all authorities are agreed that in most countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America today the average food consumption falls considerably short of the optimum desirable from the point of view of the health, as well as the efficiency, of the worker." 18 According to the Third World Food Survey of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, at least 20 percent of the population in the LDCs received too few calories, while about 60 percent received diets that were of inadequate nutritional quality (that is, their diet was deficient in other components than calorie content-mainly in proteins).19 The FAO and others concerned with the world food problem can make statements like these because, despite all the variables, it is possible to measure a person's requirements for calories in relation to the work he does. Empirical studies already performed have been helpful in formulating these requirements.2

20

Physiological effects of calorie deficiency were explored in an experiment in starvation which took place in the U.S. during World War II. In this experiment 32 volunteers lived for 24 weeks on a diet of only 1,800 calories a day, with reduced amounts of protein and other nutrients. A decline was soon noticed in the muscle tone and the endurance at work of these volunteers; it continued, along with a loss of body weight, throughout the experiment. At the end of the 24 weeks of semistarvation, muscle strength of the subjects had been reduced by almost 30 percent, and precision of movement by 15-20 percent. Their cardiovascular systems also performed with reduced efficiency. It was also observed that the effects of malnutrition in this particular experiment were more severe, and occurred earlier, than in areas where the population is chronically undernourished and has managed to adapt

to that state.

The FAO, through its Committee on Calorie Requirements, has attempted to define levels of caloric intake, depending upon an indi

18 United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), "Freedom from Hunger Campaign. Basic Study No. 5. Nutrition and Working Efficiency" (Rome, Italy, 1962), page 3. 19 Cited in: "The World Food Problem." A Report of the President's Science Advisory Committee, Vol. II: Report of the Panel on the World Food Supply, May 1967 (Washington. U.S. Government Printing Office. 1967), page 5.

.0 Thus, during and after World War II it was observed that, when German miners in the Ruhr were provided with a daily ration of 4,500 calories, 2,200 were necessary for the maintenance of the body's metabolism, while the remaining 2,300 were available for work. On these 2,300 work calories the miners turned out 1.9 tons of coal daily, or slightly under 1,200 calories per ton. By 1942 these miners had only 1,700 work calories in their diet, and coal output was diminishing. When for some time only 900 work calories were available the workers lost weight. In 1944 the miners had 1,900 work calories, and mined 1.65 tons per day, which again averages out to approximately 1,200 work calories per ton of coal. In a German steel mill which escaped wartime bombing, it was possible to trace a pattern of declining production coinciding with a decline in caloric intake. In 1939, on a ration of 1.900 work calories daily, a worker turned out 120 tons per man per month. By 1944, on 1,150 work calories daily, the same man produced less than 80 tons of steel per month. In both cases, a decline in food consumption resulted in a reduced output in proportion to the caloric intake. United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization, "Nutrition and Working Efficiency," op. cit., pages 14-15.

vidual's degree of activity. It set up a theoretical individual, called "Reference Man," who is 25 years of age and healthy, weighs 65 kilograms, and lives in the temperate zone where the annual mean temperature is 10 degrees centigrade. Using these standards, a person in a sedentary occupation would need 2,800 calories a day, one whose work made him moderately active would need 3,200, and one doing heavy work would need 4,400. Of course, these are approximate reference points. Within each occupational group there are wide variations in the energy expended to do some particular task. Furthermore, conditions within occupations vary from one country to the next. For all groups, however, inadequate food consumption reduces working efficiency.

FOOD AND METABOLISM

The quantity of basic energy foods an individual can use effectively is determined in part by the amount of protein available to him. Protein provides the "building blocks" of the body--the muscle and sinew that must be replaced when work wears them out. The body compensates for a lower protein intake by reducing the breakdown of its own protein, and an equilibrium is established between protein intake and protein destruction at a lower level than would be the case with a more balanced diet. The effect of protein deficiency is an inability to expend energy at a high rate or to perform strenuous work for a protracted period of time without a loss of weight and perhaps even damage to health. People in the LDCs who subsist on an unbalanced diet tend to avoid prolonged physical work which might cause a breakdown in their precarious metabolic equilibrium. However, since they do less work, they require less of the fuel-foods as well. But the effect is to cut down their physical productivity.

While chronic undernourishment (insufficient energy-food) and malnutrition (unbalanced diet, mainly protein shortage) do not constitute famine, there have been instances in recent years in which food shortages either threatened or actually reached famine proportions. In the mid-1960s, the failure of the Indian monsoon to bring adequate rainfall occasioned a sharp decline in Indian cereal production and India reached the brink of famine.21 U.S. food stocks eased the crisis, although even these supplies were not as plentiful as they had been in the past. The civil war in Nigeria brought starvation to the Biafran faction. Toward the close of World War II, the exigencies of war brought actual famine to the people of parts of The Netherlands. Real famine, however, is the exception rather than the rule. Generally speaking, hunger is endemic in the LDC, but starvation is not. They need more food, and more especially a better balance in their diets.

Although all elements of diet are important, the first step in overcoming food shortage is to deal with the problem of nourishmentliterally, to ease the pain of hunger. The most important sources of high-calorie foods are wheat, rice, and other grains. It is here that some of the most spectacular steps are already being taken, through the introduction of new, high-yield genetic strains.

21 U.S. Congress, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, "The Green Revolution, Symposium on Science and Foreign Policy." Proceedings before the Subcommittee on National Security Policy and Scientific Developments of the 91st Congress, 1st session, December 5, 1969 (Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970), pages 213-214.

Technological Opportunities Opened by Plant Genetics

The hopes of the world that the food/population crisis might be nearer a solution were raised considerably with the advent of the "Green Revolution." The Green Revolution has been defined by Barbara Ward Jackson as "the new farm technology based on hybrids, water, and fertilizer which can double and treble food and work for the world's developing peoples." 22 But Lester Brown, who has been closely identified with the Green Revolution, warns that this "breakthrough" "foreshadows widespread changes in the economic, social, and political orders of the poor countries." 2

The Green Revolution began in Mexico in 1943 with a cooperative program between the Rockefeller Foundation and the Mexican Government aimed at improving Mexican wheat production. A number of years later the so-called "Mexican wheats" were developed, wheats with a short stiff straw that could stand up with the added load of grain resulting from the application of fertilizers. The first to produce a sturdy short-strawed wheat were actually the Japanese, and seeds from their strains were brought back to the United States, where they were used in wheat-breeding programs at Washington State University. World record yields were produced with these seeds in the irrigated and high rainfall conditions of the Pacific Northwest. Eventually these strains were sent to the Rockefeller team in Mexico, where further experimentation produced a variety of dwarf wheat adaptable to a wide variety of growing conditions. The Mexican wheats began the process of the Green Revolution in yielding redoubled harvests by responding to water and fertilizers.

Recognizing that rice, rather than wheat, is the staple of much of the underdeveloped world, the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations joined to establish the International Rice Research Institute at Los Banos, in the Philippines. Organized in 1962, the Institute produced results within two years. Two strains, IR5 and IR8, also with a short, stiff straw, demonstrated that they too could hold a heavier yield without falling over before the grain was ripe. Like the Mexican wheat, the new rice when properly managed can double the yield of the old. It is more responsive to fertilizer than the old rice seeds, and it has a shorter growing cycle. IR8 matures in 120 days, whereas old varieties took 150-180 days. This means there is time during the year to plant an extra rice crop, or some other crop altogether. Thus the potentialities of each acre of land throughout the rice growing area of the tropics have been dramatically increased.

The same cooperative program of the Mexican Government and the Rockefeller Foundation which had developed the new high-yield wheat applied the same methods to research on corn, another staple food of the LDCs. Although less spectacularly successful than the new wheat and rice, nevertheless corn yields have increased significantly. Successes of the Green Revolution

Revolutionary increases in agricultural production resulting from the introduction of the new varieties of wheat and rice have occurred in many countries. Mexico, a country whose population has doubled

22 Comment quoted on rear dust jacket of: Lester R. Brown, "Seeds of Change. The Green Revolution and Developments in the 1970's" (New York, Praeger Publishers, 1970). 23 Ibid., page 6.