XIII. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE CONDUCT OF BUSINESS S. S. HUEBNER BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 1913 and uncertainty, occasioned largely by numerous Federal and state investigations and the uncertain results of the new tariff law and other legislation. A Year of Declining Business. From the standpoint of general business conditions the year 1912, as described in the 1912 issue of the YEAR BOOK (p. 311), "was one of normal business with a tendency toward im- The year represented a selling provement and with business men op- movement in which investors and timistic as regards the future." The speculators liquidated heavily. Durreverse only can be claimed for the ing the entire year business men year 1913, practically all the lead- marked time while awaiting developing barometers of trade indicating a ments and showed a disinclination to marked decline instead of the very take the initiative in making purnoticeable improvement of 1912, and chases for the future or otherwise exthe general tone of the financial and tending their business operations. trade journals being distinctly pessi- The security market gave an exhibimistic in character. Much of the im- tion of almost unprecedented dullprovement in business during 1912 was ness throughout the year. Sales of traceable to the splendid agricultural shares on the nation's leading excrop of that year, which established change, the New York Stock Exchange, records in nearly all the important during the first nine months of the cereals and which furnished a great year showed a decline of nearly 30 per stimulus, not only to the transporta- cent. as compared with the correspondtion interests of the nation, but also to ing period of 1912, itself a comparathe many industries which are directly tively dull year in this respect; while or indirectly dependent for the volume during the same period standard diviof their business upon the bounty of dend-paying shares showed a decline the soil. In 1913, however, the yield on the average of 20 points. Bond of the five leading cereals showed a sales on the New York Stock Exdecline of 19 per cent. as compared change, comparing the first nine with 1912. Similarly, the indicated months of 1913 with those of 1912, yield of most other agricultural prod-likewise declined 30 per cent., and ucts was comparatively small, the potato crop showing a decline of 25 per cent. as compared with 1912, the hay crop a decline of 14 per cent., and the indicated condition of tobacco standing at only 61, as compared with a tenyear average of 83. These facts are briefly enumerated to show that the condition of the principal mainstay of the nation's business enterprises, the crops, was such as naturally to exert a retarding influence on business in general. In addition to this factor, however, 1913 was also a year of doubt amounted to less than 60 per cent. of the sales in 1911, and only slightly over 37 per cent. of the sales in 1909. Meanwhile, during the first nine months of the year, the average price of representative bonds declined almost five per cent., or the equivalent of a whole year's interest return. New listings of securities on the New York Exchange also declined over 56 per cent. during the first nine months of the year as compared with 1912, and the showing is still worse if a comparison is made with the corresponding Strength of the Principal Navies.- regarded with favor in the British All tables making comparison of naval strength must be used with caution, but the accompanying statistics, compiled by the Office of Naval Intelligence at Washington, furnish useful data. Ordnance. The tendency to increase the caliber length of guns of the main battery of battleships of the super-Dreadnought type and the battle cruisers is the most notable feature of naval progress. Great Britain has armed all capital ships designed since 1909 with 13.5-in. guns in twin turrets, three-gun turrets not being Annuario Navale. service. The ships of the 1912 programme are to have eight 15-in. guns in four turrets. Japan, like the United States, has not gone beyond 14-in. caliber. Germany has clung to the lighter calibers, and none of the German battleships of which the design is published is to mount anything heavier than a 12-in. gun; it is reported, however, that a Krupp gun of 16-in. caliber, firing a projectile weighing a ton, will be supplied to some of the battleships of the German Navy now in process of construction. BIBLIOGRAPHY (Rome, 1913.) BURGOYNE, A. H.-Navy League Annual. (London, 1913.) CLOWES, W. L.-Naval Pocket Book. (London, 1913.) CUSTANCE, R.-Ship of the Line in World's Fighting Ships. (London, 1913.) JANE, F. T.-British Battle Fleet. (London, 1913.) Journal of the Royal United Service In- Marine Almanach. (Vienna, 1913.) Nauticus, Jahrbuch für Deutschlands Seeinteressen. (Berlin, 1913.) Proceedings of the U. S. Naval Institute. (Annapolis, 1913.) PULSIFER, W.-Navy Year Book. (S. Doc. No. 955, 62d Cong., 3d sess., 1912.) Situation des Marines de Guerre Étran gères. (Paris, 1913.) U. S. Navy Department.-Annual Report. (Washington, 1912.) Ships Data, U. S. Naval Vessels. (Washington, 1912.) Office of Naval Intelligence.-Information Concerning Some of the Principal Navies. WEYER.-Taschenbuch der Kriegsflotten. (Munich, 1913.) YEXLEY, L.-Fleet Annual and Navy Year Book. (London, 1913.) Our Fighting Seamen. (London, 1911.) XIII. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE CONDUCT OF BUSINESS S. S. HUEBNER BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 1913 A Year of Declining Business.From the standpoint of general business conditions the year 1912, as described in the 1912 issue of the YEAR BOOK (p. 311), "was one of normal business with a tendency toward improvement and with business men optimistic as regards the future." The reverse only can be claimed for the year 1913, practically all the leading barometers of trade indicating a marked decline instead of the very noticeable improvement of 1912, and the general tone of the financial and trade journals being distinctly pessimistic in character. Much of the improvement in business during 1912 was traceable to the splendid agricultural crop of that year, which established records in nearly all the important cereals and which furnished a great stimulus, not only to the transportation interests of the nation, but also to the many industries which are directly or indirectly dependent for the volume of their business upon the bounty of the soil. In 1913, however, the yield of the five leading cereals showed a decline of 19 per cent. as compared with 1912. Similarly, the indicated yield of most other agricultural prod ucts was comparatively small, the potato crop showing a decline of 25 per cent. as compared with 1912, the hay crop a decline of 14 per cent., and the indicated condition of tobacco standing at only 61, as compared with a tenyear average of 83. These facts are briefly enumerated to show that the condition of the principal mainstay of the nation's business enterprises, the crops, was such as naturally to exert a retarding influence on business in general. In addition to this factor, however, 1913 was also a year of doubt and uncertainty, occasioned largely by numerous Federal and state investigations and the uncertain results of the new tariff law and other legislation. The year represented a selling movement in which investors and speculators liquidated heavily. During the entire year business men marked time while awaiting developments and showed a disinclination to take the initiative in making purchases for the future or otherwise extending their business operations. The security market gave an exhibition of almost unprecedented dullness throughout the year. Sales of shares on the nation's leading exchange, the New York Stock Exchange, during the first nine months of the year showed a decline of nearly 30 per cent. as compared with the corresponding period of 1912, itself a comparatively dull year in this respect; while during the same period standard dividend-paying shares showed a decline on the average of 20 points. Bond sales on the New York Stock Exchange, comparing the first nine months of 1913 with those of 1912, likewise declined 30 per cent., and amounted to less than 60 per cent. of the sales in 1911, and only slightly over 37 per cent. of the sales in 1909. Meanwhile, during the first nine months of the year, the average price of representative bonds declined almost five per cent., or the equivalent of a whole year's interest return. New listings of securities on the New York Exchange also declined over 56 per cent. during the first nine months of the year as compared with 1912, and the showing is still worse if a comparison is made with the corresponding Strength of the Principal Navies.- regarded with favor in the British All tables making comparison of service. The ships of the 1912 pronaval strength must be used with caution, but the accompanying statistics, compiled by the Office of Naval Intelligence at Washington, furnish useful data. gramme are to have eight 15-in. guns in four turrets. Japan, like the United States, has not gone beyond 14-in. caliber. Germany has clung to the lighter calibers, and none of the German battleships of which the design is published is to mount anything heavier than a 12-in. gun; it is reported, however, that a Krupp gun of 16-in. caliber, firing a projectile weighing a ton, will be supplied to some of the battleships of the German Navy now in process of construction. BIBLIOGRAPHY Nauticus, Jahrbuch für Deutschlands PULSIFER, W.-Navy Year Book. (S. Situation des Marines de Guerre Étran gères. (Paris, 1913.) U. S. Navy Department.-Annual Report. (Washington, 1912.) - Ships' Data, U. S. Naval Vessels. (Washington, 1912.) Office of Naval Intelligence.-Information Concerning Some of the Principal Navies. WEYER. Taschenbuch der Kriegsflotten. YEXLEY, L.-Fleet Annual and Navy Our Fighting Seamen. (London, 1911.) XIII. ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND THE CONDUCT OF BUSINESS S. S. HUEBNER BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN 1913 A Year of Declining Business.- and uncertainty, occasioned largely by From the standpoint of general busi- numerous Federal and state investiness conditions the year 1912, as de- gations and the uncertain results of scribed in the 1912 issue of the YEAR the new tariff law and other legislaBOOK (p. 311), "was one of normal tion. business with a tendency toward im- The year represented a selling provement and with business men op- movement in which investors and timistic as regards the future." The speculators liquidated heavily. Durreverse only can be claimed for the ing the entire year business men year 1913, practically all the lead- marked time while awaiting developing barometers of trade indicating a ments and showed a disinclination to marked decline instead of the very take the initiative in making purnoticeable improvement of 1912, and chases for the future or otherwise exthe general tone of the financial and tending their business operations. trade journals being distinctly pessi- The security market gave an exhibimistic in character. Much of the im- tion of almost unprecedented dullprovement in business during 1912 was ness throughout the year. Sales of traceable to the splendid agricultural shares on the nation's leading excrop of that year, which established change, the New York Stock Exchange, records in nearly all the important during the first nine months of the cereals and which furnished a great year showed a decline of nearly 30 per stimulus, not only to the transporta- cent. as compared with the correspondtion interests of the nation, but also to ing period of 1912, itself a comparathe many industries which are directly tively dull year in this respect; while or indirectly dependent for the volume during the same period standard diviof their business upon the bounty of dend-paying shares showed a decline the soil. In 1913, however, the yield on the average of 20 points. Bond of the five leading cereals showed a sales on the New York Stock Exdecline of 19 per cent. as compared change, comparing the first nine with 1912. Similarly, the indicated months of 1913 with those of 1912, yield of most other agricultural prod-likewise declined 30 per cent., and ucts was comparatively small, the potato crop showing a decline of 25 per cent. as compared with 1912, the hay crop a decline of 14 per cent., and the indicated condition of tobacco standing at only 61, as compared with a tenyear average of 83. These facts are briefly enumerated to show that the condition of the principal mainstay of the nation's business enterprises, the crops, was such as naturally to exert a retarding influence on business in general. In addition to this factor, however, 1913 was also a year of doubt amounted to less than 60 per cent. of the sales in 1911, and only slightly over 37 per cent. of the sales in 1909. Meanwhile, during the first nine months of the year, the average price of representative bonds declined almost five per cent., or the equivalent of a whole year's interest return. New listings of securities on the New York Exchange also declined over 56 per cent. during the first nine months of the year as compared with 1912, and the showing is still worse if a comparison is made with the corresponding |