P-4457-"Policy Sciences and Policy Research Organizations." C. Wolf, Jr. (September 1970). Notes on a new type of educational activity at Rand: development of a graduate degree program in policy analysis. Increasing demands are made for trained policy analysts in government, research institutions, universities, and businesses-both domestic and international-whose activities involve public policy choices. In answer to the question of whether a policy research organization can contribute to the supply of well-trained policy analysts, an experimental prototype program is to be conducted at Rand; a small group of staff members will participate as students, other staff members with suitable qualifications will be the faculty. Formal academic work will be combined with direct applications to policy problems, with emphasis on the cross-disciplinary approach. The curriculum to be tested is planned for 9 academic quarters of 10 weeks each, including (10) on-the-job training, (2) a seminar workshop based on current and previous Rand studies. (3) 2 core courses, one in concepts and theory, the other in tools and techniques, and (4) a dissertation requirement. Based largely on the results of the program, a decision will be made on whether to expand the program and make it available to qualified people outside Rand. 10 pp. (KB) P-4464––“Ân Approach to Developing Accountability Measures for the Public Schools," S. M. Barro (September 1970). A general strategy for evaluating pupils' progress so that each educator is held responsible for those outcomes-and only those outcomes-that he can affect, to the extent that he can affect them. The basic statistical technique is multiple regression analysis. Several stages are needed (1) to take account of variation due to the pupils' backgrounds and characteristics, (2) to estimate the remaining interclassroom variations, and (3) to attribute it to particular teachers, other classroom variables, and other school characteristics. In principle, the method can be extended to evaluate the contributions of administrators, provided the district is large enough for adequate comparisons. The interclassroom variation remaining after nonteacher effects have been accounted for is probably the most widely useful measure. Complex econometric models may be required to cope with interaction effects--the effect of problem children on their classmates, or of last year's teacher on this year's performance 30 pp. (MW) P-4480-1-"Development of Management Scientists." E. P. Durbin, P. W. Greenwood (November 1970). Rand and Caltech have developed a successful postgraduate curriculum for training management scientists. The first 10-week academic quarter was divided between theory (economics, decision theory, management information systems) and analytic methodology (resource analysis, program budgeting, statistical methods, computer simulation of micro and macro systems), interspersed with Rand studies exemplifying the ideas taught. These studies made the students more demanding of relevant and useful techniques than first-year graduate students usually are. About half the class completed the second quarter, devoted to group research projects some left because they wanted to work individually. Starting with problems of their choice about which they had only laymen's knowledge, aided by rapid feedback from instructors, the groups quickly defined their problem areas. They became highly involved and knowledgeable regarding their topics, developing remarkable understanding of data sources, real-world constraints, and how policy is actually made. 7 pp. (MW) P-4517-"Cost-Effectiveness as an Aid to Making Decisions in Education," M. B. Carpenter (December 1970). Clarifies the application of cost-effectiveness to education, using the Rand studies of education in Colombia as an illustration. Cost-effectiveness can only be judged in comparison with alternatives. Only when inputs and outputs are completely measurable in dollars can a cost-effectiveness study be self-contained. Differences of 10% or less are not significant. Resources must be distinguished from the cost of the resources, especially where the availability of trained personnel is a limiting factor. A single measure of effectiveness cannot meet the needs of all educational decisionmakers, yet single measures are usually offered. Given equal-cost alternatives to consider, the decisionmaker can choose among programs in terms of his own value structure. Equal-effectiveness programs are nearly impossible to construct in education, since so much is unquantifiable. (Delivered at the cost-effectiveness seminar for the National Association of Education Broadcasters in Washington, November 1970.) 8 pp. P-4528 "The Nonpublic Schools and the Public Purse: A Financial Study of Roman Catholic Schools in Rhode Island," H. J. Kiesling (December 1970). Faced with declining enrollment and rising costs, U.S. Catholic schools decreased by 5% between 1963 and 1968. Eleven States subsidized nonpublic, church-controlled schools in some way. Public school expenditures in 1967 averaged over $700 per pupil: 15 representative Rhode Island parochial schools spent $103-up from $42 in 1958. This increase reflects living costs of nuns and brothers, a decline in religious vocations causing an increase in lay teachers, and smaller classes, especially in low-income parishes. Yearly fees, averaging $12 for a middle-income parish and $34 for a high-income parish, hardly account for the 13% drop in enrollment. Higher fees in poorer parishes, averaging $42, may account for part of their 27% decline. How to prevent the collapse of religious schools in the U.S. is not clear. But if all their present pupils enroll in public schools, public education costs will increase at least 13%-$3.5 billion-plus at least $500,000,000 for buildings. 25 pp. (MW) P-4538 "Determinants of the Flow of Physicians to the United States." H. S. Luft (December 1970). In 1969 over 2300 foreign medical school graduates obtained a license to practice in the U.S. In 1968, 15,582 interns and residents among the 47,494 in U.S. hospitals were foreign educated. The flow of foreign physicians to the U.S. has escalated dramatically in recent years, and today more come from the underdeveloped countries than ever before. This paper detailed statistical backup such as income differentials and other factors affecting migration. Among the conclusions: Prospects for developing nations look dim, as the lure of more money plus an emphasis here and abroad on specialized training exercises its influence to siphon off needed physicians. But, with respect to medical trainees, the situation may not be as bad as it looks: The U.S. receives the physician's services for a number of years, and his home country eventually receives a more highly trained doctor. 118 pp. Bef. (TC) P-4558 "The Rand/HEW Study of Performance Contracting in Education," G. R. Hall, J. P. Stucker (January 1971). In simple terms, an educational performance contract is an agreement between a school district and a learning system contractor for the education of a selected group of students, with the contract payment determined by the measured educational achievement of the students. About 100 programs are underway this year. Each program involves remedial reading; many teach mathematics, but only three cover other subjects. Most contractors are profit-oriented educational firms, and are directly involved in the teaching and learning process. Most programs are based on highly individualized instruction and employ a wide spectrum of teaching techniques, materials, and general approaches. It is important that the 1970-71 experience be evaluated with an eye to all the activities involved in the program and the many different impacts they might conceivably exert. HEW has contracted with Rand to conduct one such evaluation. 11 pp. (DGS) P-4574-"How Shall We Employ the Technically Trained?" V. Gilinsky (February 1971). A discussion of the present aerospace unemployment as a recurrent problem caused by the manner in which individuals are trained and used to generate technology. We should avoid solutions that do not solve the future operation of the advanced technology sector. Past flexibility meant discarding older, experienced employees in favor of new univeristy graduates. Permanent revitalization of the advanced technology sector is necessary: (1) Reform graduate education by reducing university training to fundamentals. (2) Provide regular access to reeducation. (3) Divide a career into work and study modes. (4) Facilitate changes of professions or occupations by financing adults with families. (5) Control numbers of university graduates through feedback of society's and industry's needs. Possibly industries should provide a limited form of guaranteed employment. The potential of the technically trained is underutilized; society cannot choose wisely among its options if individuals become a disposable commodity. 11 pp. (SM) P-4576-"Analysis of Educational Programs," M. B. Carpenter (March 1971). Analysis within a program budgeting system assists in planning and management through 2 functions: it generates realistic descriptions of the resources and processes used by on-going programs to produce educational outcomes; it permits objective comparison of alternative ways to conduct a given program. Two steps are crucial to the analysis: correct problem definition and formulation, and description of alternative problem solutions. Further, a good analysis gives con crete evidence that peripheral effects of the alternatives have been ascertained as well as possible, and provides estimates of the cost and effectiveness of those alternatives throughout the probable life of the program. To carry out such an analysis, people are needed who have a thorough knowledge of the educational system, and who use a rational, objective, intellectual approach with a large measure of common sense. 17 pp. Ref. (SM) P-4584-"Project R-3 Allocation of Students among Groups," G. C. Sumner (February 1971). A concise description of an objective method for allocating San Jose students into groups so that each group includes the same representation of 2 quantitative measures of scholastic achievement. The conditions provided that each group he internally heterogeneous, and that intergroup differences be small, so that each represented a separate replication of the same experiment. The purpose of the allocation was to mirror uniformly the central tendency and variability of the overall student population. The method could apply to a more flexible set of initial conditions: it could accommodate another variable; it would be equally useful for ensuring representation across socioeconomic or cultural variables; and it obtains proportionality with the racial-ethnic mix of the student population considered. 11 pp. (SM) P-4595 "Multivariate Analysis of Schools and Educational Policy," H. J. Kiesling (March 1971). Revised version of a report for the Office of the Assistant Secretary for gram Evaluation, HEW. Production function analysis of education is futile because of data limitations. However, multivariate analysis of available data can yield important policy guidance, if we (1) use comparable measures across experiments, (2) systematically account for socioeconomic differences, and (3) analyze schools as systems rather than studying variable in isolation. We already know, from 15 multivariate analyses, that teacher training seems unrelated to performance, but teachers' verbal intelligence is highly related; mothers' education is an important predictor of children's achievement; ability tracking improves overall achievement, but depressed the lowest group in one study. Researchers should pay more attention to pupil mobility, school management and facilities, audiovisual aids, team teaching, and especially school size. A research plan for a National Institute of Education is outlined, 56 pp. Bibliog. (MW) P-4596 "Subjective Scaling of Student Performance," T. S. Donaldson (March 1971). A method for measuring performance increments across a wide range of student performance-specifically, by measuring the student's performance in homework and classroom work. A judge evaluates the achievement level from samples of each student's work collected at the beginning and end of the program. Rating the student's work on an assignment common to all, the judge scores either by intersample relationship or by comparison to an absolute value scale. This exercise evaluates improvements in arithmetic and reading skills and affords a criterion for using the standardized tests. The specific assignment scores can be correlated with the standardized test scores. Although scaling techniques appear to be generally useful in educational evaluations, more basic research is necessary to isolate student performance variables, to study individual teachers' grading biases, to determine the various dimensions of student performance, and to identify performance changes, 15 pp. Ref. (SM) P-4600-"Instructional Uses of the Computer in Higher Education," R. E. Levien (March 1971). Some conclusions about developments in the computer's capabilities and costs; methods of providing computer service and instructional materials; and effects of higher education. Two major trends hold special promise: the development of large, centralized computing facilities shared by customers; and the creation of inexpensive minicomputers, using an exchangeable medium such as magnetic tape cassettes. These could provide a market for computer-based instructional materials; such a market is critical in achieving the desirable level of computer use in instruction. National policy should see that access to the computer is possible wherever its use is cost-effective, and that its use is refined and improved to broaden the range of instructional value. The federal government should support (1) R&D on hardware and software, including terminals, minicomputers, and intercomputer communications; (2) development of instructional materials; (3) computer experiments; and (4) consideration of computer requirements in copyright and patent laws and communications industry regulations. 20 pp. (SM) Publications for which DDC document (AD) numbers are given are **Cost when ordering direct from Rand. |