Exports from United States to ERP areas are not programed although there may be very small commercial exports. Includes coal-mining machinery, steel equipment, timber equipment, petroleum equipment, and machinery n. e. s.

Imports for these commodities are significant. Data for these categories are not available separately.

BREAK-DOWN OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY REQUIREMENTS

The CHAIRMAN. I will start off with one request for a correction. This agricultural machinery proposition is broken down between tractors and other agricultural machinery in other places. Why is not that done here so that we can see where we are? I am wondering why that approach was not made.

Mr. BECK. Up until very recently, we have handled this matterThe CHAIRMAN. This ECA program is set up with those items separate, and we will have to have them separate in this table. This is almost the most crucial item in the whole set-up.

Do you have any break-down of it here so that we can see the picture that way? If you have not, I am terribly disappointed, because it is going to take us a lot of time. I do not see why the Department does not do the obvious things like that. That is why the hearings take so long. I do not understand that.

Mr. NITZE. I think what Mr. Beck was about to refer to is the fact that the figures, up until very recently, were in terms of agricultural machinery alone, and it was only a week or so ago when you requested physical quantities that it was broken down between tractors and other agricultural machinery. In the brown books, I think the figures are only for agricultural machinery as a whole.

The CHAIRMAN. Maybe that is so, but it is so obvious that we would want that, I think you would have had it prepared.

Mr. BECK. We have a considerable amount of data that we have prepared by our committee in an attempt to give you the type of information you want. I would want, however, to qualify it by saying that a great deal of the judgment factor enters into these pictures, because originally the original Paris Conference report figures were quite obviously hastily put together, and there are a number of cases where there were very obvious mistakes made in them. When we arrived at an over-all figure, about a week ago, we attempted to break that down using our committee's best judg ment, based upon previous export statistics, as to the tractors that had been exported from the United States and the other farm machinery that had been exported from the United States, and we feel we have put together a pretty fair piece of work on that. But we have to admit that without a lot of good judgment on the part of our coworkers in the Department of Agriculture and our committee we would not have been able to do so.

We could offer that, then, as our best judgment of how that will work out.

The CHAIRMAN. I do not like to appropriate money on best judgment; I like to have the figures in front of me.

Mr. BECK. We are prepared to give you, for example, a sheet here showing the total exports of farm machinery, including all tractors from the United States, broken down by participating countries, and this, of course, is the basis on which our work has been done. There are no worth-while statistics emanating out of Europe as to their own production over there in these past years. For that reason, as I say, we have to go by experience of this country and by what we know of where these countries traditionally have received their machinery. The CHAIRMAN. Do you have a break-down of that picture that you could present to us?

Mr. BECK. Yes, sir [submitting].

The CHAIRMAN. This does not separate it into tractors and other items.

Mr. BECK. Yes. In the middle column you will notice the percentage, 1939, imports from the United States, tractors, tractor parts, and other machinery.

The CHAIRMAN. But this does not give us the picture. I think we can use this table to a certain extent, but I would like to have a table prepared that would show tractors separate from the agricultural machinery, for the things you show in this table here.

Mr. BRODELL. We have a table that shows the kinds of tractors that they have gotten in 1939, 1946, and 1947, and the estimate of the number of tractors they will get in 1948-49 by countries, and the machinery and equipment they will get from Canada. But we do not know to what extent Canada will supply tractors or other machinery. The CHAIRMAN. Do you have any table that shows the production of tractors in the United States prewar and current, by numbers?

Mr. BRODELL. We have not submitted that, but we can supply that figure. Last year we produced in the United States 457,000 crawler and wheel-type tractors. In addition to that, we produced 166,000 garden tractors, and I think the average prewar had been around 200,000 tractors. There was only one of the prewar years when we produced as much as 250,000.

Mr. MAHON. I do not want to interrupt the chairman's chain of thought, but I would like to have a little statement at some place— here, if that is proper-stating generally the kinds of tractors that are to be exported.

As you know, there are many kinds of tractors. We have what we call four-row tractors down in the Southwest, and we have smaller tractors. In a general way, I would like to know the kinds of tractors. Can you give us a statement that will show that?

Mr. BRODELL. The only thing we have now is for 1939, 1946, and 1947. This shows the actual export of tractors to those countries by type. That is the number of crawlers, the number of wheel tractors, and the number of garden tractors they got by countries.

Mr. MAHON. Can you differentiate between the large-type tractor we use on the western farms and the small type of tractor that we use on the hills of Virginia?

Mr. BRODELL. We can only do that from Commerce exports in 1947. We know, according to the CEEC report, that they wanted large size wheel tractors and crawlers, but the material that comes from the needy countries indicates they want a lot of the small-type and medium-size wheel tractors. Last year, I think they imported something like 2,000 garden tractors and around 18,000 wheel tractors and 2,000 to 3,000 crawlers. That is what the CEEC countries got. Mr. MAHON. Will the information you are going to furnish us show the tractors exported under ECA for the whole picture and for all purposes?

Mr. BRODELL. It will show the total number of tractors that will likely be exported for all purposes, and show a break-down by types for 1947.

Mr. MAHON. And somewhere you have the total of all those that are being sent under the ECA program?

Mr. BRODELL. The total tractors, but not broken down by types.

Mr. MAHON. It is not necessary to break them down by types. Mr. BRODELL. We have that figure right now; we have a table here that will show that.

Mr. MAHON. We export tractors regardless of the ECA program. Mr. BRODELL. That is right. I think we have a table, and I believe Mr. Beck or Mr. Cooper had a copy, which shows the types of tractors exported.

Mr. MAHON. But merely to show it is a wheel tractor, it could be a tiny thing or a big thing.

Mr. BRODELL. You have to go the detailed Commerce reports to get the size of the wheel tractors.

Mr. MAHON. But you are bound to know, generally speaking, what the types are.

Mr. BRODELL. Maybe this table would be helpful [submitting].

QUESTION AS TO NORMAL EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY

Mr. CANNON. Somewhere there is a differentiation between the amount of machinery and the character of machinery which you normally export and which you would export even if there were no ECA program.

Mr. BRODELL. That is right.

Mr. CANNON. And you show us here the amount which this particular program carries, in addition to the normal exportation?

Mr. BRODELL. We have made that sort of assumption, but we cannot be too sure about that. We assume they would spend about the same percentage of their money in 1948-49 for tractors and for other machinery as they did in 1947.

Mr. MAHON. Do you know what the foreign countries would probably do by way of purchasing our tractors if there was no ECA and we had no export control? The point I am getting at is, if we just turned them loose, would they buy a large number of our tractors, maybe more than we would be willing to sell them?

Mr. BRODELL. The answer is "Yes." We have talked to representatives of the industry, and they tell me that in 1947 they were allocating only about 50 percent to Europe of the number they wanted to buy. And that included no orders whatsoever from Germany, Austria, Italy, or Greece. In other words, they had actual orders for $90,000,000 for 1947, and they tell me now they have orders around $200,000,000 for the 1949-50 program.

Mr. MAHON. Are there people here qualified to testify, Mr. Chairman, as to the feasibility of our nation's sending abroad these tractors, as to whether or not we can afford to spare them from American agriculture? We have had testimony on that from various sources, and is there anybody here who can give us anything additional? In my opinion, American agriculture wants every tractor produced by American industry and, not only that, but wants more than they can get even if none were exported. If they have any further comment on that, it will be worth while.

The CHAIRMAN. I do not know whether they are competent to do it or not. I am started in on a lot of things, and they did not have the information that we would naturally expect them to have. I do not know whether there are or not, and frankly I do not think anybody can tell until we ask the questions.

PRODUCTION, IMPORTS, TOTAL SUPPLY, AND EXPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY ADJUSTED TO JULY 1947 FACTORY PRICES

Mr. BECK. We have attempted to make up a table which would indicate a simplified picture of that by taking production, imports, and total supply. It takes the 1935-39 average and then the 1946 and 1947 and the 1948-49 fiscal year, and we translate all of those figures into 1947 prices so as to make them on a uniform basis, because of price differences that have taken place during that time.

(The table referred to is as follows:)

United States production, imports, total supply and exports of agricultural machinery adjusted to July 1947 factory prices

1 Exports are reported on F. A. S. basis and hence have been reduced by 10 percent to adjust to factory prices.

? Fiscal year-based on estimated 10 percent increase in production over 1947 and 15 percent increase in imports.

Calendar year.

• Estimated.

According to that table there would be available for United States farmers in 1948-49 fiscal year $1,247,100,000 worth of farm machinery and tractors. That compares with $1,186,700,000 last year, in 1947, and only $951,000,000 in 1946.

Mr. CANNON. In other words, production increased at such a rapid rate that even with the exportation provided by this program, there would still be left a greater supply than the American farmers have ever had in any previous year?

Mr. BECK. That is true. That is another point.

DISCUSSION OF REQUIREMENTS FOR AND AVAILABLE SUPPLY OF FARM MACHINERY FOR UNITED STATES FARMERS

Mr. MAHON. That still does not mean the American farmer will get all of the tractors he wants.

Mr. BECK. The Amreican farmer has approximately 40 percent more farm machinery than he had before the war, and naturally he is enjoying an exceptionally good income and believes machinery is a good investment, and he is going to put that money into machinery to a large extent, so that our market here will continue to absorb a lot of machinery. But there is some question as to whether his getting all of it would produce more food, or whether he would just retire some of his older equipment and have a new model, like they do with the automobile.