can afford to send to Europe without treating unfairly the farmers of this country and their customers in other parts of the world.

FERTILIZER

Turning to fertilizer, it should be noted that Europe's soil was badly depleted of plant food during the war-both by a shortage of commercial fertilizer and by the reduction of livestock numbers which cut down on manure supplies. The most important current shortage is in nitrogen. Most of Europe's nitrogen supply will come from her own expanding domestic production and from import sources other than the United States. Though we do not expect to increase our nitrogen shipments any, the figures before you call for continuing our shipments to western Europe for the next 15 months at about the present rate. We also propose to continue shipments of phosphate rock at about the present rate which is less than one-third of our prewar exports to those countries. We have not traditionally exported any potash to Europe and none is included in this program. There has been no change in these fertilizer figures since our earlier estimates were made.

Those are the main agricultural items included in this program. To evaluate this food program I think we might ask: What kind of a diet will it provide for the participating nations? The general answer is: Somewhat better than in recent years, but still far below the quality of their prewar diet. We have been discussing Europe's production and imports in comparison with prewar. It should be remembered that there are now 10 percent more people in western Europe than there were before the war. So, even if food supplies were up to prewar they would still provide a 10-percent smaller diet. To get a more specific answer to this diet question turn to table 1 and look at the last three lines. This shows the average per capita quantity of each major food item which will be available in western Europe next year, if all our assumptions on their production and their imports from various countries come true. You will note, for example, that the per capita supply of grain will be about 88 percent of prewar even though grain is now a much more important item in the diet than it was before 1939.

Moving on across the line at some of the other more important commodities you note that per capita supplies of beans and peas will be 86 percent of prewar, sugar 89 percent, meat 71 percent, cheese 76, eggs 75, fresh fruits 90, dried fruits 86, tobacco 84, and cotton 79 percent of prewar.

As to our own economy, I think you gentlemen realize that except possibly for meat the food picture in this country is continuing to improve. The major items now in short supply are feed grains, meat, and fats and oils. One good corn crop could completely change the feed situation. In fact, a normal crop would give us a supply of feed grains per head of livestock well above average. The United States livestock situation also reflects a decrease, over several years, in breeding stock. It will take a year or two before improved corn supplies can have full effect on our meat production, since it will first have to cause an increase in breeding. As I mentioned earlier, this program does not involve any export of United States meat. The fats and oils crisis seems definitely to be past its peak and has been im

proving for some time. So from the standpoint of consumers, I can see very little, if any, sacrifice involved in this program. Though precise comparisons are difficult, a glance at the figures will show that this program involves less food shipments from the United States to western Europe than we have been making in the past 2 years.

From the standpoint of our farmers I say to you frankly, as I have to many other groups, that the net effect of this European recovery program should be definitely to the good. As you know, we are working with the House and Senate Agricultural committees in attempting to develop a long-range agricultural program-one that can give our consumers a continuing abundance and our farmers a good living. It has become increasingly clear as our studies progress that we will need a sizable self-supporting foreign market. Western Europe has long been our major farm market-taking from two-thirds to threefourths of our total agricultural exports. It is the logical market for the years to come. So, although the first justification of this program is its contribution to human freedom and peace, we cannot be unmindful of what it means to the farmers and other workers of our Nation.

As I indicated in the beginning, I have merely tried to give you some evaluation of the quantities of agricultural products involved in this program. I have purposely stayed away from dollars, since that is a matter of balance of payments and can best be handled by others in the executive branch. I can only say that our people in the Department of Agriculture have spent many months of hard work in a careful development of the food figures which are before you. It is our judgment that the diets provided by the quantities of food indicated are about as low as we could dare go without jeopardizing the success of the entire undertaking. Further, it is our hope that as the program progresses the diets can be gradually improvedparticularly in livestock products and other protective foods. Progress in that direction will depend upon future developments in the world grain picture.

I know, Mr. Chairman, that I have only sketched the broad outline of the food aspects of this program, but I expect this is about as far as I should try your patience with a prepared statement. My colleagues and I here from the Department will be glad to attempt to answer any questions that you may care to ask, or to prepare any additional material which you may want.

TABLE 1.-Summary of selected food and other items in the European recovery program for participating countries (excluding dependent overseas territories) 1948-49 (United States estimates)

Oilcake

Fats

Meat
(includ-

Eggs

Proc

Total

(shell Fresh

Dried
fruits

grains

Rice and Pulses and Sugar ing Cheese essed
meal
oils
horse-
meat)

milk

To-
bacco

Cotton

Not available.

Only 1 in prewar.

Bread Coarse grains grains

Total grains

Rice

Oilcake and meal

Pulses

Fats and oils

Sugar

Meat (including horsemeat)

June 1948-49 June 1948-49 June 1948-49 June 1948-49
1948
1948
1948
1948