Recent work by scientists in the Soviet Union, however, suggests the need for caution regarding the effects of the harvest. Although the details of their work are not yet available, Soviet scientists claim to have evidence that reproductive rates can be determined by the degree of comparability in the age structure of the male and female segments of the population, and by the sex ratio. Their work indicates that departures from a sex ratio of 20 adult females to each breeding adult male may result in declining trends, especially when the age structures of the two sexes differ. On some Soviet islands, there may not be an adequate number of breeding aged males to inseminate young females at the end of the regular breeding season each year.

There is some evidence to suggest that the problems identified by the Soviet scientists could be involved in the decline on the Pribilofs. This evidence concerns possible increased utilization rates, i.e., an increase in the portion of available animals taken in the harvest each year. Although harvested males are not yet of breeding age, an increase in utilization rates will result in reduced recruitment to the breeding aged population of males and, therefore, a reduced ratio of males to females of breeding age in this population. An increase in utilization rates would explain the lack of decline in the harvest since the mid-1970s (Table 1). With the possible exception of such an indirect effect of the male harvest, the limited data available are not consistent with reduced reproduction rates as a possible contributing factor in the Pribilof decline. Indeed, any effects of the harvest now would be inconsistent with historical increasing trends in the population while being harvested, and are inconsistent with the decline in the unharvested population on St. George Island. The likely principal factor behind the decline is an increase in mortality at sea.

Further evaluation is needed to determine the effects of the harvest and its role, if any, on currently observed declines. It is the consensus of the scientists participating each year in the Standing Scientific Committee of the NPFSC that the harvest probably is not contributing to the decline and that no adjustments in harvest levels are required. This view is shared by other scientists (e.g. Swartzman, 1984). At the 1984 meeting of the NPFSC, Commissioners agreed to a U.S. proposal to limit the number of seals to be taken in the 1984 harvest. This action was intended to preclude the possibility of overharvesting the Pribilof population.

C. Social and Economic Environment

1. Residents of the Pribilof Islands

Aleutian Island natives were brought to the previously uninhabited Pribilof Islands in 1787 by Russian sailors to harvest the northern fur seal. Descriptions of the discovery, early history and living conditions of the Islands can be found in Elliot (1881) and Jones (1980). The following information is primarily from a report by Orbach and Holmes (1982).

The Aleut hunters usually remained on the Pribilofs for several years at a time and often much longer. Although some returned to their original homes, many chose to begin families and make a new life on the Pribilofs. Throughout most of the 1800s the resident workforce was not self-sustaining, and replacement workers were periodically brought to the Pribilofs.

Russian and Aleut residents of the Pribilofs subsisted largely on seal and sea lion meat, fish, birds and eggs. Their diets were supplemented occasionaly by dried goods brought in by ship. Aleut workers were paid with goods in exchange for their labor or by tokens or paper money. By 1825, fixed wage rates were established which applied to harvest and other work throughout the Russian colonies, including the Pribilofs. In addition to the fur seal harvest, Pribilof Aleuts hunted sea lions for their skins, and other products which were often sold in trade to southeastern Alaska. Sea lion oil supplemented scarce fuel reserves. Other actitivities included the building or maintenance of small boats, homes and commercial buildings. Pribilof Aleuts adopted the Russian Orthodox Religion and built churches on St. Paul (1819) and St. George (1833).

In 1867 when the United States purchased Alaska, there were 248 people on St. Paul Island and 127 on St. George. Private American sealing companies controlled the daily lives of the island residents until 1910. Between 1867-1869 the Aleuts elected a chief and a governing council. The first formal school on the islands was founded in 1869. In 1870 the U.S. Government awarded a 20 year sealing lease to the Alaska Commercial Company with the stipulation that the Company provide for the education and general well-being of the Pribilof Aleuts. Living conditions for the Aleuts reportedly improved during this period, and their personal income was comparable to that of other U.S. citizens.

In 1890, the North American Commercial Company was awarded the second 20 year lease; however, by this time the seal herd had declined sharply due to overharvesting. Reduced harvest incomes caused a period of severe poverty on the Pribilofs. The Government began to supplement the Aleuts' private income with welfare payments of food, clothing and other supplies.

The Fur Seal Act of 1910 placed the Pribilof Aleuts and the seal herd under the direct control of Federal agencies. The Aleuts were paid for their work with credits redeemable at the Government store, but the general poverty conditions continued. In addition, Government agents in charge of the islands began to place restrictions on travel, and conflicts developed due to the restrictions on social activities and over working conditions. During the 1920s Pribilof Aleuts started a community store; and after the passage of the Indian Reorganization Act of 1934, community councils were established on the Pribilofs to improve living conditions, education and recreational opportunities.

Pribilof Aleuts were interned during World War II in camps on the Alaska mainland, ostensibly for their own protection since a Japanese invasion was considered imminent. The shocking story of their abrupt transportation, the conditions in these camps, and the effect on the people has been detailed in the Report on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians, Personal Justice Denied, Part II, The Aleuts, War and Evacuation in Alaska, pp.315-359, J. Bernstein, Chairman, December 1982. Disease, weather and other hardships caused many deaths, especially among the elderly. When they returned to the Pribilofs in 1944, they found that most of their homes had been ransacked by U.S. troops stationed on the islands, and most of their personal possessions, including musical instruments, manuscripts and items of religious significance, had been destroyed.

The Pribilof Aleuts began to demand their civil rights and made considerable progress during the 1950s. New wages were negotiated and travel and educational opportunities increased. Several small businesses were started. In 1951, Pribilof Aleuts sued the U.S. Government for damages under the Indian Claims Commission Act of 1945 because of mistreatment, inadequate compensation for their labor and long-term violations of their legal rights. They have received part of the $8.2 million in damages finally awarded to them in 1978.

The Fur Seal Act of 1966 and the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971 provided the Pribilof Aleuts with the first real opportunities for economic independence. Wage guarantees, training programs, and the transfer to the residents of title to their land and homes fostered the development of local government. Non-profit Native Corporations, including the Tanadgusix Corporation on St. Paul Island and the Tanaq Corporation on St. George Island, were established in 1971. In 1972, St. Paul was incorporated under the State of Alaska as a second class city. But the Pribilof Island economy remained primarily tied to Federal employment. Between 1970 and 1984, the NMFS was responsible for the administration of the Pribilof Islands and was the major employer on the islands.

A detailed economic analysis funded by the NMFS (Management and Planning Services 1980) found that the Aleut population on St. Paul Island in 1979 was 509, with a total earned income of $2,180,566. The NMFS salaries for work in the fur seal havest totaled $232,950. The St. George population of 169 had a total earned income of $848,300. Of the 234 full or part-time jobs available to Aleut residents in 1979, 150 were funded by the NMFS and 80 of these jobs were in fur seal harvesting or the initial processing of skins. The income and employment levels of Pribilof residents in 1982 are presented in Tables 8 and 9.

2. An End to Federal Administration of the Pribilofs

In 1981, the Department of Commerce began plans for the eventual termination of Federal administration of the Pribilof Islands, and the early transfer of current Federal activities to state and local governments and private enterprise. Pribilof residents, with the participation of state and Federal representatives, began to develop plans for a diversified economic base. A major goal was to ensure that the residents retain control of development plans and protect their social and cultural integrity.

The President's 1983 budget proposed a 4-year phase-out of Federal support for the Pribilof Islands Program. The Secretary of Commerce and the Governor of Alaska formed a working group to devise the best method of transferring the Federal administration of the Pribilofs while helping to build a viable Island economy. Initially, State and Pribilof Aleut representatives to the working group insisted that 5 years of full Federal funding was necessary prior to the start of any phase-out period. Federal representatives supported an immediate phase-out. The development of an alternative economy not based on Federal appropriations was of primary importance, and the obvious answer was the Bering Sea's rich fisheries resources. The Pribilofs are ideally situated for tapping these resources, but are without the harbor facilities necessary to do so.

Based on the concept of developing a new fisheries economy, the Department of Commerce proposed the creation of a $20 million trust fund as an alternative to the 4year phase-out. This $20 million, when combined with a commitment by the State to build harbors on both islands, would provide Island residents with funds for community services and economic development until a new economic system was in place. The Department also proposed that most of its real and personal property on the Islands be transferred to either the Islanders or to the State, and that the Islanders conduct future fur seal harvests. After extensive discussions and visits to the islands, the proposal was found generally acceptable to both the State and the Pribilovians.

To implement the proposal, the Department drafted legislation (H. R. 2840), which was signed into law October 14, 1983. Under this law (P. L. 98-129), the Department continues its responsibilites of oversight and management of the fur seal harvest and for fur seal management as required by the Convention. The legislation implements the plans for transfer by permitting the Department to contract for the conduct of the harvest, to transfer most Federal real and personal property, and to establish the $20 million trust fund,

Funding provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the Pribilof Islands, 1979-1984, is given in Table 10. The Pribilof Island Program, of the Northwest Region of the NMFS in Seattle, Washington, was terminated in fiscal year (FY) 1984. Remaining administrative functions include payment of certain retirement benefits required by the Fur Seal Act, loan repayments to the State of Alaska, and the management of contracts to upgrade facilities on the islands. The NMFS's Alaska Region, in Juneau, is responsible for oversight of the Pribilof's commercial and subsistence fur seal harvests. In addition, the Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Center, Marine Mammal Laboratory, conducts research on the fur seal populations, including studies of population dynamics, physiology and behavior. This research program is funded at approximately $330,000 per year.

3. Summary of Economic Development Plans and Progress

A survey of recent literature on the economic diversification of the Pribilofs has been prepared by the State of Alaska (Department of Community and Regional Affairs, 1982). The following information is based on reports prepared by Dames and Moore (1983 a,b) for the Pribilof Aleut communities.

The development strategies of both St. George and St. Paul Islands are based primarily on the economic opportunities provided by the rich fishery resources of the eastern Bering Sea. Estimates of the potential fishery yield (metric tons) within 200 miles of the Pribilof Islands, 1982-1986, are given in Table 11. To take advantage of this potential, harbors must be constructed on both islands. The State of Alaska has appropriated over $30 million in the last 2 years for boat harbors, and the first phase of construction on St. Paul has been completed. Phase two will begin next spring and includes a $2.5 million grant from the Economic Development Adminstration of the Department of Commerce. Preliminary construction on St. George began in 1984.

An Economic Strategies Plan has been developed by Dames and Moore (1983a) for St. George Island, and includes plans for port and fisheries development, tourism and infrastructure improvements. A breakwater and wharf will be constructed at Zapadni Bay. It will provide a 15-acre harbor for about 15 small boats. Included in this project will be site preparation for a future industrial area of 10 acres, with water and fuel tanks, access roads and transmission lines. The harbor will cost about $14 million and is being funded by the State of Alaska. These facilities will be managed by the City of St. George.

Fishery development plans on St. George consist of the development of a day fishery and further expansion of the fishery once harbor facilities are completed. The local fleet consists of ten 20-foot aluminum vessels with a 4,000-pound capacity, two 32-foot Orca fiberglass bow-pickers, and a 28-foot all-purpose boat. Once the harbor facilities are ready for use, larger fishing boats will be added to the local fleet, including two 100- to 120-foot boats equipped to fish red and blue kingcrab, tanner crab, and hair crab, and to longline for halibut and Pacific cod. In addition, two to five nonresident boats (100 to 400 feet) will deliver red and blue king, hair crab, and possibly trawl-caught Pacific cod to a processing plant on St. George. Initially employment will consist of approximately 30 residents. These boats will operate about 4 months a year. Employment should significantly increase with the addition of two 100 to 140-foot boats. The Tanaq Corporation will own the boats and lease them to fishermen. Tanaq's investment in the boats totals $210,000. A 28-foot all-purpose boat has been provided by the Hokutan Trawlers Association (along with fishing gear and technical assistance), in return for right of first refusal on 30 percent of the catch.

When the small-boat harbor is in operation, expected catch by the resident fleet is 4.45 million pounds. Nonresident boats are expected to bring in 4.5 million pounds of Tanner, king and hair crab for processing. About 51 native residents may be employed in the fisheries by 1990 (see Table 12). A seafood processing plant, with a capacity of 2,000,000 pounds, is expected to be in operation at Zapadni Bay by 1985. Employment will be approximately 20 to 30 persons during May to October, and about 10 persons during the rest of the year. Wages will be $6 to $8 per hour, and all employees will be local residents. An estimated $546,000 could be generated in local income from seafood processing by 1990.

The Tanaq Corporation has been active in the development of tourism on St. George Island. Tourism has been limited to occasional charter tours, but the Corporation and local tour companies are attempting to expand this market and arrange an increased number of overnight trips to this scenic island. Although tourism is not expected to provide major economic benefits to island residents, a modest increase in the number of tourists could result in increased summer employment as tour guides and hotel workers. By 1990 tourism could provide $50,000 in wages for native residents.

St. Paul's economic development plans (Dames and Moore 1983b) include the following objectives: (1) provide a level of fisheries activity that is profitable and assures full employment; (2) increase the number of tourists and related local employment; (3) establish a locally operated fur sealing industry that is profitable and continues to employ local residents at approximately historic levels. A major goal that St. Paul residents have in common with St. George residents, is the need to minimize adverse social impacts from this economic change, and to maintain their cultural integrity.