of Georgetown has a differing view from that of these statisticians who give us these estimates on discouraged workers. I want to ask you if you think the BLS estimate is adequate? I wonder how did the discouraged worker element influence unemployment data for June and July. How much higher would the rate of unemployment be if these discouraged workers were included in the unemployment statistics? And I wonder if you think the "discouraged worker" is proportionately higher among minority groups and the young.

Mr. GINSBURG. Yes, definitely. Much higher among the young and among the minority groups. Because their job outlook in so many communities is so dismal, they have stopped looking for work. For example, in the Newark area where some 35 percent of the black population is unemployed and where jobs within the inner city are so limited

Chairman PROXMIRE. It is right there, you see, 35 percent unemployed and you said 80 percent of a certain age group in Watts unemployed. Eighty percent.

Mr. Ginsburg. Right.

Chairman PROXMIRE. When you say "unemployed" you mean they do not have jobs and are unable to work, but it does not mean that they are actively seeking work, does it?

Mr. GINSBURG. That is right, they are so discouraged.

Chairman PROXMIRE. These people, of course, would not, according to the definition we accepted, be regarded as unemployed. They would be out of the labor force.

Mr. GINSBURG. That is true. A precise amount of that nationwide I do not have, but I think when the Bureau of Labor statistics people do appear here, if you get from them the participation rates for many groups, you will find that the labor force participation is not either steady or rising. Instead, it is declining, which is another part of the same question, another aspect of it. There are people who are not participating in the work force, either in employment or seeking jobs. And when this figure drops from 60 percent to 59, to 58, to 57, of the noninstitutionalized population in various age groups, you know there are a lot of people who are not attracted by the job outlook to be actively seeking work.

Chairman PROXMIRE. Gentlemen, I want to thank you very much. The hour of 11:30 a.m. has come and I see the distinguished gentlemen, about whom we have been talking, have now entered the room. So I want to thank you very much. You have been helpful. We are grateful to you.

Our next witness is Geoffrey H. Moore, Commissioner of Labor Statistics: Joel Popkin, Assistant Commissioner for Prices and Living Conditions, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Harold Goldstein, Assistant Commissioner for Manpower and Employment Statistics; and Howard Stambler, Chief of the Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis.

Mr. Moore, do you have a statement you would like to read?
Mr. MOORE. Yes.

Chairman PROXMIRE. We appreciate this statement. It is very helpful. It is concise and to the point. Go right ahead.

60-174 O 72 pt. 1 - 14

STATEMENT OF HON. GEOFFREY H. MOORE, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, ACCOMPANIED BY JOEL POPKIN, ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER FOR PRICES AND LIVING; HAROLD GOLDSTEIN, ASSISTANT COMMISSIONER FOR MANPOWER AND EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS; AND HOWARD STAMBLER, CHIEF, DIVISION OF EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS

Mr. MOORE. Inasmuch as we have just released this morning the July employment figures, together with our analysis of what they show, there is no need for me to review them in detail, though we should, of course, be glad to answer any questions about them. I should, however, like to place our press release in the record.

Chairman PROXMIRE. Go ahead.

Mr. MOORE. That would be helpful. (The press release follows:)

[Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Press Release No. 71-447, Aug. 6, 1971]

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JULY 1971

Employment rose in July, but not enough to offset the increase in the labor force, and the unemployment rate edged up, the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The overall unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in July compared with 5.6 percent in June and 6.2 percent in May. The July increase in unemployment was concentrated among part-time workers; the rate for full-time workers was 5.3 percent in both June and July.

Total employment rose one-half million in July to 78.9 million (seasonally adjusted), following a decline of the same amount in June. The employment pickup occurred primarily among teenagers and adult men. The increase in employment among adult men was a continuation of recent trends and brought their employment level to an alltime high.

In contrast to the increase in total employment, the number of wage and salary workers on nonagricultural payrolls declined by 190,000 between June and July to 70.5 million, seasonally adjusted. The drop occurred almost entirely in manufacturing and construction and was partly accounted for by a net increase in the number of workers on strike. (Payroll employment excludes agricultural workers, self-employed workers, domestic, unpaid family workers, and workers on unpaid vacations or other unpaid absences such as workers on strike-all of whom are included in the figures on total employment. See Technical Note in Employment and Earnings.)

UNEMPLOYMENT

The number of unemployed persons totaled 5.3 million in July. After allowance for usual June-July changes, unemployment was up by 200,000 over the month but down 330,000 from May. The July rise took place primarily among jobseekers who had reentered the labor force. At 1.5 million, seasonally adjusted,

Note: Included in this release for the first time is a section on the employment status of Vietnam Era War veterans,

the number of jobless reentrants rose 200,000 in July, following a similar drop in June. Unemployment stemming from job loss was not significantly changed in July.

The overall unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in July compared with 5.6 percent in June and 6.2 percent in May. The July rate was 0.4 percentage point below the highs of December 1970 and May 1971.

Unemployment rates for all adult men (4.3 percent) and married men (3.1 percent) were essentially unchanged between June and July, but both were down from their high points reached in December 1970.

For adult women 20 years and over, the unemployment rate was 5.7 percent in July, also about unchanged from June; their rate has remained in the narrow range of 5.6 to 6.0 percent since last winter. An over-the-month increase in the jobless rate for women 25 and over (from 4.5 to 5.0 percent) was largely offset by a drop among 20-24 year-olds, whose rate fell for the second straight month. After dropping sharply in June, the jobless rate for teenagers held relatively steady in July. At 16.2 percent, the teenage rate remained well below the late fall and winter highs of nearly 18 percent.

The unemployment rate for Negro workers edged up in July to 10.1 percent, following a decline in June. The rate for white workers, at 5.3 percent, was basically unchanged over the month.

The jobless rate for part-time workers rose from 7.6 to 8.7 percent between June and July. For full-time workers, the rate was unchanged over the month at 5.3 percent, following a sharp drop in June, and was at its lowest point since October 1970.

Among occupation groups, jobless rates moved up for professional and technical workers (to 2.8 percent) and sales workers (to 4.7 percent). Although rebounding from their June declines, rates for both groups were still below their high points recorded earlier this year. For craftsmen and foremen, the jobless rate rose to 5.3 percent in July, returning to its highest point since last fall. The rate for nonfarm laborers declined sharply in July to 9.1 percent, the first time in a year that the rate was below 10 percent. Jobless rates for the other occupation groups were not significantly changed over the month, although most were below their recent highs.

For workers covered by State unemployment insurance programs, the jobless rate moved down from 4.4 to 3.9 percent in July (seasonally adjusted). The drop returned the State insured rate to the levels of early spring, after increases in May and June.

The number of persons unemployed 15 weeks or more totaled 1.3 million in July, seasonally adjusted, up 140,000 from June. This brought the portion of the labor force that was unemployed 15 or more weeks to 1.6 percent, the highest level since August 1963. The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks rose slightly over the month but remained below the levels of last winter. The average (mean) duration of joblessness dropped from 12.7 weeks in June to 11.6 weeks in July (seasonally adjusted), to about the same level as in May; this was the first decline in the average duration since last October

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

Reflecting the continued summer entrance of youth into the job market, the civilian labor force rose by 700,000 in July to 83.8 million, seasonally adjusted. The over-the-month rise occurred almost exclusively among young workers 16-24 years of age. The July increase followed a sharp decline in June, when the regular survey week (the one that includes the 12th of the month) was unusually early and large numbers of youth were still in school. The increase brought the civilian labor force back to the levels of this spring.

Total employment rose by one-half million in July to 78.9 million (seasonally adjusted), following a decline of the same magnitude in June, again a reflection

of the early survey week. Most of the July pickup in employment took place among teenagers. Employment of adult men, which has increased steadily since February, rose slightly in July to an alltime high. Employment of adult women was not significantly changed in July, remaining 300,000 below the peak level reached in January.

Over the year, the civilian labor force has grown by 1.2 million. Three-fifths of this rise occurred among adult men, primarily reflecting a substantial increase among 20-24 year-olds, many of them returning veterans. Teenagers accounted for one-third of the year-to-year gain in the labor force, while there was little labor force growth among adult women. Total employment was up 390,000 over the year, as a substantial gain among men, primarily those 20-24 years of age, was partially offset by declines among adult women. Teenagers experienced little job growth over the year.

STATUS OF VIETNAM ERA VETERANS

The number of Vietnam Era war veterans 20-29 years of age in the civilian labor force was 3.8 million in July 1971 (not seasonally adjusted), an increase of 525,000 over the year. A total of 3.5 million were employed, an increase of 450,000 since last July. Unemployed veterans numbered 310,000, about the same level as in June but 75,000 more than a year ago.

At 8.2 percent in July, the unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) for 20-29 year-old veterans was the same as a month earlier but was higher than the rate for last July (7.2 percent). The rate for nonveterans 20-29 years, at 7.2 percent in July (not seasonally adjusted), was below that of veterans. Earlier in the year, the spread between the rates for veterans and nonveterans was higher than in June and July, but the difference has narrowed as a greater proportion of nonveterans sought summer jobs.

EMPLOYMENT STATUS OF MALE VIETNAM ERA VETERANS AND NONVETERANS, 20 TO 29 YEARS OLD [Numbers in thousands; data not seasonally adjusted]

I War veterans are defined by the dates of their service in the U.S. Armed Forces. War veterans 20 to 29 years old are al veterans of the Vietnam era (service at any time after Aug. 4, 1964), and they account for about 85 percent of the Vietnam era veterans of all ages. About 700,000 post-Korean-peacetime veterans 20 to 29 years old are not included in this table.

INDUSTRY PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

Nonagricultural payroll employment declined 190,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis between June and July to 70.5 million. About one-fourth of the over-themonth decline was attributable to a net increase in the number of workers on strike. (Workers on strike the whole week are not counted as employed in the payroll series. In the household series on total employment, on the other hand, workers on strike are classified as employed-with a job but not at work.) The July decrease in payroll jobs, which brought this series to its lowest monthly level for 1971, occurred almost entirely in the goods-producing sector of the economy.

Manufacturing employment (seasonally adjusted) declined 130,000 in July. This decrease followed a slightly smaller drop in June and reduced manufactur

ing employment to its lowest level since November 1965. About two-thirds of the July decrease took place in the durable goods industries. Employment fell by 40,000 in primary metals, due largely to cutbacks in steel production and to a strike in the copper industry. Declines also occurred in the machinery, electrical equipment, and miscellaneous manufacturing industries. In nondurable goods, employment dropped in the food, paper, and leather industries.

In contract construction, employment declined 35,000 in July, the third consecutive monthly reduction. This brought employment in this industry 300,000 below its alltime high of December 1969. Mining employment dropped 20,000 in July, due entirely to a strike by copper miners.

In the service-producing industries, employment increases of 20,000 each in trade and government were offset by declines in services (30,000) and transportation and public utilities (10,000). Since January, payroll employment in the services sector has shown relatively little growth.

HOURS OF WORK

The average workweek for all rank-and-file workers on private nonagricultural payrolls declined by 0.2 hour in July to 36.9 hours on a seasonally adjusted basis. This decline can be attributed to the telephone strike which idled 500,000 workers for part of the survey week. (Because these workers were on payrolls during part of the week, the payroll employment levels were not affected.) Average hours for all private nonfarm workers remained in the narrow 36.9-to-37.1 range that has prevailed since October 1970.

In manufacturing, the average workweek was 39.9 hours (seasonally adjusted), down by 0.1 hour from June but at about the same level as the summer of 1970. The over-the-month decline was concentrated in the durable goods industries where the workweek fell by 0.2 hour, mainly because of a large drop in transportation equipment related to automobile model changeover. In the nondurable industries, the average workweek edged up 0.1 hour.

Factory overtime (seasonally adjusted) declined by 0.1 hour over the month to 2.9 hours. Overtime hours were down in both durable and nondurable goods industries.

Because of the telephone strike, which began during the middle of the reference week, the seasonally adjusted average workweek in the transportation and public utilities industry declined by 2.9 hours to 37.8 hours.

EARNINGS

Average hourly earnings of rank-and-file workers on private nonagricultural payrolls remained at $3.42 in July, the same as in May and June. Compared with July a year ago, average hourly earnings were up 19 or 5.9 percent.

Average weekly earnings fell by 35 cents over the month to $127.22, with large decreases occurring in durable goods manufacturing and in transportation and public utilities. In the latter industry, weekly earnings were heavily affected by the telephone strike. Weekly earnings rose in July in all other major industry divisions with the exception of mining.

Compared with July 1970, average weekly earnings were up by $5.77 or 4.8 percent. During the latest 12-month period for which Consumer Price Index data are available-June 1970 to June 1971-the index rose 4.5 percent.

This release presents and analyzes statistics from two major surveys. Data on labor force, total employment, and unemployment are derived from the sample survey of households conducted and tabulated by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Statistics on industry employment, hours, and earnings are collected by State agencies from payroll records of employers and are tabulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A description of the two surveys appears in the BLS publication Employment and Earnings.