CONCLUSION The outlook for early development of cable television service in the major cities is at best mixed. As compared with the rules discussed two years ago, the final FCC rules more tightly restrict the choice of broadcast signals a system can provide to its subscribers. Analysis of the important variations in potential market and cable systems characteristics in these urban areas demonstrates that only the largest systems, or multiply-owned systems of slightly smaller scale, will be viable in the central city areas where offthe-air reception quality is high, and then only under favorable construction and penetration conditions. At the edges of these markets returns will be sufficient to attract investment in the largestscale systems, but systems of 10,000-15,000 will be profitable only under especially favorable circumstances. In an investment environment in which the majority of urban households can be profitably wired for cable television service only when atypically propitious cost and demand factors occur, to require more than quite limited copyright payments will significantly retard or halt CATV expansion in the urban markets. The proposed statutory fee schedule in S.644 (up to 5% of subscriber revenue) would generally lower rates of return on total capital a full percentage point for systems in the profitable range, and in an important proportion of cases its leveraged effect on equity investors would be sufficient to create unprofitable systems. As expected, a fee schedule of one-half that in S.644 reduces rates of return on total capital about one-half a percentage point. Fees of this magnitude would restrict cable construction primarily in market circumstances where returns are already limited for other reasons. In contrast, a flat 16.5% copyright payment would create a decidedly unprofitable investment climate for cable television throughout the top 100 markets, far outweighing the limited prospects opened up by the 1972 FCC rules. 43 a Bibliography Comanor, William S. and Mitchell, Bridger M., "Cable Comanor, William S. and Mitchell, Bridger M., "The Lost Generation: A Correction," Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 2, (Autumn 1971), pp. 704-705. Comanor, William S. and Mitchell, Bridger M., "The Costs of Planning: The FCC and Cable Television," Journal of Law and Economics, Vol XV (1), April, 1972, pp. 177-206. Foundation 70, "Cable in Embryo: Economic Considerations for Urban Franchising," Wellesley, Mass., processed, September 1971. Halle and Stieglitz, Inc., "The Cable Television Industry," October, 1971. Johnson, Leland L., et al, "Cable Communications in the Mitchell, Bridger M., "An Economic Analysis of the Ability of CATV Systems in Top 100 Markets to Pay Copyright Royalities," Washington, D.C.. processed May 15, 1972. Park, Rolla Edward, "Prospects for Cable in the 100 Largest Television Markets, Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring, 1972), pp. 130-150. Park, Rolla Edward, "The Exclusivity Provisions of the Federal Communications Commission's Cable Television Seiden, M. H. and Associates, CATV Report, 1970. Sloan Commission on Cable Communications, On the Cable: The Television of Abundance, McGraw Hill, New York, 1971. Weinberg, Gary, "Cost Analysis of CATV Components: Final Report," RMC Report UR-170, June 1972, prepared for the Office of Telecommunications Policy. Federal Communications Commission, "Cable Television Service: Cable Television Relay Service," Federal Register, Vol. 37, No. 30., Part II, (Feb. 12, 1972), pp. 32523341. Federal Communications Commission, "Cable Television Service: Reconsideration of Report and Order," Federal Register, Vol 37, No. 136, Part II, ( July 14, 1972), pp. 13848-13910 Television Digest, Inc., CATV and Station Coverage Atlas, 1971-1972, Washington, D.C.. Television Digest, Inc., Television Factbook, Services 45 APPENDIX Modified Costs and Revenues Several cost items in the Comanor-Mitchell Report have been modified for this study, either to take account of the FCC rules as finally adopted or as a result of the availability of more recent information. A brief summary of those costs which were modified for all systems investigated in this report is presented below: 1. Local Franchise Tax. 5% of gross revenues annually. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. FCC Fee. $35 initial fee plus $0.30 per subscriber annually. Channel switchers. One switcher included in capital equipment costs for each imported signal. Pole rent. All results reported here include pole Local origination. We assume the Comanor-Mitchell Public service channels. The final FCC rules require CATV systems to provide 3 non-broadcast channels for non-commercial public access, educational access, and government access respectively. The public access channel is to be provided without charge, while the other two channels will be free for five years. The costs of meeting these provisions are taken to be an additional 75% of the capital costs assumed for local origination, plus $4875 per year for part-time technician salaries. |