Mr. CHISHOLM. This outlines the radar coverage that is available through the FAA system. In addition to the radar coverage through the FAA system, there are other very interesting aspects. Specifically, Loren Crow, special assistant to Mr. White of the Weather Bureau, came up with the idea that the air traffic control beacon in all commercial transports could be used to extract meteorological data from the airplane, relay it to the radar site, thence to the ARTCC, and thence to computers. If you go through the numbers here you will find that 100 times more sounding data could be obtained in this manner than is presently being obtained. In the opinion of some people in weather modification, of which I am one, this data could play a vital role when tied in automatically to computers in the general area of automatically telling you where to do the seeding, et cetera. In addition to the weather radar coverage of the FAA system and the concept of extracting data from transponders in transport airplanes it is possible to release balloons and track them on the FAA system. This is a concept that was developed in the Las Vegas Research Station of the Weather Bureau. These three areas alone can make a significant contribution to meteorology in general and weather modification in particular in my opinion.

Senator CANNON. Do you think there would be any difficult problem of coordinating this type of an effort if you have these additional agencies involved?

Mr. CHISHOLM. Yes, there would be problems. I think when you try to coordinate with any agency there are problems. We have proceeded on an informal basis to discuss these problems. How successful we will be is a good question.

Senator CANNON. Do you have a suggested method on how this might be handled effectively?

Mr. CHISHOLM. I would prefer not to comment at this time, sir. It is a question on which I am not an expert.

Senator CANNON. As a former businessman having returned to the academic life do you think that weather modification, as such, makes economic sense?

Mr. CHISHOLM. I can answer that question by sort of categorizing various fields in weather modification, and in each separate field Ĭ can ask three questions. (1) Can you modify the weather? (2) Can you make money modifying the weather? (3) Do you understand how you are modifying the weather? Let us take one obvious case, that of fog dispersal at airports. There is no question that you can modify and get rid of the fog at airports if the fog is supercooled. There is no question that fog dispersal makes economic sense. It is now being done by airlines because it is money in their pocket. There is no question that they understand the processes involved.

So in the area of fog dispersal the answers to the three questions: Can you do it? Does it make money? And do you understand it? are "Yes." The next most easy area to discuss in weather modification is that of the so-called wintertime orographic precipitation processes. The question of can you modify the weather has been controversial up to quite recently. It is now, I believe, generally agreed that you can increase the precipitation from wintertime orographic processes. Mr. Elliott can perhaps comment on that. The question: Can you make money at it? is perhaps best answered

by the fact that Pacific Gas & Electric, and other people cam formally a substantial return on their money just from pow The question of whether you understand what you are a very controversial. The actual processes that go on in these in the winter over the mountains is very little understood answers to the questions as applied to wintertime orographie se are you can do it, you can make money, but you really a what you are doing. In the third area. the so-called entran storms, you can't get agreement that you can produce sizist precipitation increases, and hence you can't get agreement that will make money because you don't know whether you are produing an increase. However, judging by the fact that 10 years ago f seeding was only advocated by a few people and now it is a moneymaking proposition, my feeling is that in 10 years the seeding of convective clouds will be accepted as being economically feasible. When you talk about weather modification on a larger scale than that it gets outside the area I have been working in.

Senator CANNON. Your comments are rather interesting partionlarly when you go back to what we thought 10 years ago. I had some experiences in the United Kingdom during the war where we tried to burn off the fog. As a matter of fact we did burn it of in a number of instances. Of course it was quite an expensive process but we saved a lot of men and a lot of airplanes by being able to burn out a foggy area so that they could land. And at that time this idea was unbelievable when they first brought it over. I think many of us thought that they were crazy. But I had occasion to use it and I was mighty happy to have it.

Thank you very much, Mr. Chisholm, for the ideas you have given us. They will be very helpful to the committee when they consider this problem.

Our next witness will be Mr. Robert D. Elliott, president of North American Weather Consultants. Mr. Elliott, we are happy to have you here with us today and you may proceed.

STATEMENT OF ROBERT D. ELLIOTT, PRESIDENT, NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER CONSULTANTS, SANTA BARBARA, CALIF.

Mr. ELLIOTT. Mr. Chairman, I have a prepared statement which I would like to read if I may.

I have been a professional meteorologist for 28 years and hold a bachelor's degree in physics and a master's degree in meteorology from the California Institute of Technology. My experience has been primarily in the application of meteorological knowledge in the private sphere. During the war I served as a naval aerological officer. În 1950 I was cofounder of a company which has specialized in cloud seeding, weather forecasting, and meteorological studies over the past 15 years; North American Weather Consultants. I might add that in the realm of cloud seeding we have conducted projects in eight States. We normally have from 4 to 12 per year and many of them are long duration projects for utility companies. One of them is now starting its 16th year in the High Sierras.

During the course of my professional work with North American Weather Consultants, my coworkers and I have planned, supervised,

and analyzed a variety of weather modification projects ranging from research projects designed primarily to gain knowledge through operational projects to increase water supplies. At present, North American Weather Consultants is conducting the operational phase of the Nevada Atmospheric Research project here in Elko County. In the city of Elko we maintain a meteorological office staffed by a professional meteorologist and assistants. Weather information is received via weather teletype and local sources so that the weather situation is continuously monitored and cloud-seeding operations can be directed during storms.

At this point, I should like to outline the history of this project and its goals and this is a brief outline. During the 1950's a number of commercial cloud-seeding projects had been conducted in the Elko area. Among the leaders that is, leaders and residents in this general area-who were interested in employing cloud seeding as a means of alleviating water shortages, there grew the feeling that more research effort toward determining specific effects in this area was in order. At that time the concept of the randomized cloud-seeding test was new, and it was accepted by them as a basis for research. project designed in this fashion requires that one should forego seeding in about half of the seedable storms in order to obtain a background of nonseeded storms that can be compared to the seeded storms.

A

The storms to be seeded are selected randomly, such as by flipping a coin. When this is done, it is possible to instrument the area with rain gages and other observational devices to detect the differences between seeded and nonseeded storms. In the absence of randomization it is necessary to employ as a basis for comparison data from historical storms. But there is usually a very limited historical network of rain gages and no supplementary observations of physical variables, so that a much less satisfactory basis for the evaluation of results is provided.

The feeling of water users in this area was that the test program should be supported by whatever funds could be found locally or at the State level, and, accordingly, public meetings were held in the fall of 1960, at which a general type of proposal was presented to the public. The proposal committee was headed by Hugh Shamberger of the Nevada State Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. Testimony was presented at that meeting by Prof. Wendell A. Mordy, of the Desert Research Institute, Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer, the discoverer of cloud seeding, and myself, as well as by many citizens of Elko and adjoining counties.

It was not until the fall of 1961 that a project actually got underway. Financial support of this project came from the State of Nevada, from Elko and adjoining counties, and from private parties and irrigation districts scattered throughout northeastern Nevada and adjoining areas in Idaho and Oregon. Later on, additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation and the Bureau of Reclamation. Overall supervision of the project was by the Desert Research Institute and the operational phases were conducted by North American Weather Consultants.

The first year, 1961-62, did not contain all of the elements of the final scientific design that was put into effect in the 1962-63 season and is continuing at present. The first year, 1961-62, was random

ized, but with only one target area. Much useful information was gathered from this first year that aided in the final design of the project. In the final design there are two targets, one area being in the upwind slopes of the Jarbidge Mountains some 45 miles to the north of Elko, and the other area being on the upwind s'op of the Ruby Mountains, approximately 20 miles southeast of the city of Elko.

Each of these target areas has installed in it five specially designed heated recording gages. At suitable distances upwind of each target area is a network of 10 silver iodide smoke generators strategicaliv located so that the area can be targeted under varying wind and air mass conditions. The mode of operation is that when the hed meteorologist in Elko determines that seedable conditions exist he calls the Desert Research Institute and receives instructions either to seed the northern target or the southern target, the other one ber used as a comparison area. The selection is made on a random basis so that the field meteorologist has no idea which will be seeded prior to his call. Thereafter, the seeding continues in the selected target area for the duration of the storm or for 18 hours. After 18 hours if the storm continues, a new decision must be made since the succeeding 18 hours will be counted as a new unit of observation.

In this way there is being built up a sample of seeded and nonseeded cases in the two adjoining areas. It is the goal of the project to obtain a sufficiently large sample of seeded and nonseeded storms in order to be 95 percent sure of the reality of any seeding effect detected. It s been estimated that this can be achieved within a 5-year per provided all data are collected in good form. It is our policy to ni sam no statements as to preliminary results. I might say and add, t. a in the first year in which we did not have the full design there were as abundant number of storms. In the next year when we started full design, that is the 1962 63 season, it was very dry and we did: t get the expected number of storms. 1963 64 was better and this last year, 1964 65, was again rather dry.

In addition to the use of precipitation as data for the evaluati supplementary observations are being made of the wind flow and at mass structure in this general region which will be employed to artes the statistical analysis and increase our assurance as to the re Mr. Chisholm mentioned some of the observations which are made. These are balloon observations where we sound the atmosphere and get the temperature and moisture structure aloft, and the pattern. This considerably sharpens the analysis and was one of things that we determined was needed after our tests in the Barbara area during the 1957 and 1960 period

I would now like to present some general observations conce weather modification activities. In any field program, research oriented or operations oriented, an interdisciplinary appr is required The three basic elements are: (1) cloud physic synoptic meteorology, and, (3) engineering

In our held operations it is necessary to have a basic understa of the cloud physics mechanisms including the entire role of r physics in the production of rain by natural or artificial rest

Synoptic meteorology is the science of the air motions at f phene processes which form the background of the cloud,

processes. There is obviously an interaction between the cloud physics and synoptic meteorological aspects which has unfortunately in the past been largely overlooked or ignored by those concerned with the more theoretical aspects of cloud physics. However, this is something which could not be ignored by those engaged in actual operations where it was necessary to insure that proper targeting of the intended area of effect was made under varying wind flow and air mass conditions. It necessitates the close monitoring of the current weather conditions. It is also essential to the evaluation of the results that the behavior on the synoptic meteorological scale be measured in the general seeding area. I can elaborate a little on that point. We are concerned with the behavior of submicroscopic particles that are a millionth of an inch in diameter, that is the silver iodide smoke particles, and their interaction with the cloud droplets which are a hundred times as large, and their interaction with larger scale motions, convective motions in the storms. And finally, the effects of largescale processes, such as fronts and convection lines, that pass through the area. They all interact with each other and we have to comprehend the entire range of scales before we really know what we are doing.

The engineering aspects involve the development of appropriate silver iodide dispersal systems and logistic support thereof. Also involved is extra instrumentation for observing precipitation and other weather elements under adverse climatic conditions. Generators that can be reliably operated by radio control on remote mountain peaks is one facet of this engineering aspect which we in North American Weather Consultants have developed through the last decade.

With prospects of increased weather modification activity there arises the possibility of interference between projects. This has been minimal in the past, but it is anticipated that legal provision should be made for negotiating compromises where it arises.

It is being accepted now that both operational and research type programs can coexist, and will feed information to each other which will result in a steady improvement in the state of the art. I might add here that the cost of the research-oriented project is much, much greater than that of the operations-oriented project. The reason is we have sufficient knowledge to perform certain types of operationstype projects, in other words we can do them. But in order to improve the state of the art we do have to learn more and this means that we need to have more knowledge. Likewise, it seems probable that various Federal agencies can make different contributions to the advancement of this field. It therefore would appear that a pluralistic approach is in order, and that there is no need for a "weather czar" to regulate all weather modification activities in the Nation.

More stringent regulation covering qualification of cloud seeders is in order, but the exact method for doing this is still an open question. Thank you, Senator Cannon, for permitting me to present this testimony.

Senator CANNON. Thank you, Mr. Elliott, for your fine presentation. Do you feel that Nevada offers an above-average site for conducting large-scale atmospheric tests and experiments?

Mr. ELLIOTT. I think it is a remarkably fine area in which to do this, for several reasons. One is it is sparsely populated and you