Hon. WARREN G. MAGNUSON, UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY, Chairman of the Commerce Committee, DEAR SENATOR MAGNUSON: With reference to your invitation of public debate on bills S. 2875 and S. 2916, as quoted in Science (vol. 151, 1966, p. 806), the purpose of the present is to submit to you the desirability of creating a facility, perhaps to be called "statistical weather modification facility" (SWMF, for short). This facility would have two related purposes: (1) to preserve in usable form the data on completed weather modification experiments, data obtained at the cost of millions of dollars through many years of experimentation, and (2) to conduct statistical research, partly theoretical, concerned with the methodology of weather modification experiments, and partly empirical, using the data on completed experiments. Enclosure A outlines the functioning of the proposed SWMF. Enclosure B indicates some of the reasons for my making the present suggestion. Naturally, I should be delighted to answer any questions you may wish to ask. Yours respectfully, J. NEYMAN, Professor, and Director of the Statistical Laboratory. [Enclosure A] OUTLINE OF FUNCTIONS OF THE PROPOSED STATISTICAL WEATHER MODIFICATION FACILITY (SWMF) (1) Data collections and storage.-The SWMF would collect, sort, organize, and store, on punchcards, magnetic tapes, or on microfilms, relevant data relating to all publicly funded weather modification experiments conducted in the United States and also relating to such other weather modification experiments in the United States and abroad that may be judged sufficiently significant and that the collection of data on them will be found feasible. The data in question would be not only those that the experimenters concerned would collect on their own initiative, data intended to answer questions formulated by these experimenters, but also collateral data, the relevance of which may be only suspected, but which later on may become invaluable as a source of information on questions that may be asked in the future. The success in this respect will depend very much on the scientific initiative, alertness, and foresight of the directing body of the SWMF. (2) Legal basis.-The basis for the activity of SWMF must be a law requiring (a) that the facility be informed of each incipient publicly funded weather modification experiment, including the design of the experiment, its purpose and the data collection program; (b) that photocopies of the original data on every such experiment be routinely made available to the facility as they are collected, perhaps within 3 months of each completed experimental season. (3) Collateral data.-The SWMF would be authorized to seek cooperation of the appropriate Federal and State agencies in collection of the relevant collateral data, such as photocopies of radiosonde data, precipitation records in areas adjoining the weather modification experiments, etc. (4) Use of data. The purpose of data collected and organized by the SWMF would be to create the possibility of using the weather modification experiments already completed in order to answer questions which were not formulated at the time when these experiments were planned and executed. For this purpose, and subject to the restriction explained in (5) the data collected by the SWMF would be available, at cost, to all agencies of the United States and to all authorized individuals and research institutions. (5) Priority rights of the experimenters.—The availability of data on completed experiments would be subject to the restriction designed to protect the priority rights of the experimenters: the latter must be allowed a reasonable time, perhaps a year, to analyze and to evaluate their experiments themselves. Thereafter, the results of the experiments would become public property. (6) Own research of the SWMF.-In addition to collecting, organizing, and preserving data on completed weather modification experiments, the SWMF would conduct its own research in the following domains: (a) Theoretical research aiming at the development of particularly ef cient statistical techniques for the evaluation of weather modification experiments. (b) Development of experimental designs with which significant res”.ta on weather modification might be obtained through a shorter period of ex perimentation, and therefore, at a savings expected to be substar tai (c) Evaluation and reevaluation of selected experiments already per formed. (7) Consulting service. The SWMF would provide statistical estsu'tım, service to all research workers and institutions who may request it, partientar a with reference to evaluation techniques and to planning of new experimenta (8) Governing Body. The SWMF would function under policy decisi governing body composed of representatives of research institutions cotier Tham) with weather modification problems, to be determined by a separate reg (9) Autonomy.- The SWMF must have a degree of autonomy and be collect and, when the occasion arises, to publish data and evaluations a' 1' discretion. In particular, SWMF should be financially independent of the tions engaged in actual experimentation with weather control. This wou'd impartiality in the analysis performed by a group which would have no Interests in the results. Perhaps the best way to achieve this autonomy is to locate the SWMF = the academic community rather than to have it attached to a governmen agency. Respectfully submitted. J NEYMAN. Professor and Director of the Statistical Laborat eg [Enclosure B] MOTIVATION FOR THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE THE STATISTICAL WEATHER Mor: FACILITY (1) Usefulness of "collateral data" on weather modification rajerimenta The usefulness of collateral data on weather modification experiments i Sy dramatically illustrated by the following fact: As revealed at the revent pat Ing "Weather Modifiention of the Fifth Berkeley Symposium” (spe program), the first and, thus far the only unambiguous eviden » tha seeding with silver iodide can increase precipitation came from the Fi tion experiment, so-called “Grossversuch HII," performed in Switzeristis 1957 to 1963 Here, then precipitation amounts were "collater il" to ??»** of the experiment and it is pure luck that they were priblished in the reports The significance of the precipitation data was larg ly Thus, for example, the 1964 preliminary report of the NAS Panel dar. Swiss experiment in one sentence to the effect that no significant effect of sows on hail incidence was found. In actual fact, a more detailed analys a TV that seed ng increased the incidence of hail ) (2) A special agency to assemble and to preserve data on eemp menta sa needed – Here again Grossversuch III may serve as an In order to gain insight into the mechanism of the noted incTESSE tation cert in meteorological data not published in the artma The data are available partly in the archives of the them Ticinese at Locarno Monti and partly in Italy The retrieval of the stars seem trivial In actual fact, the process is troublesome and not imex, Above nil it is time consuming. One might perhaps think that the difficulties mentioned are due pr to the fact that the experiment in question was performed in Switre plea there is no problem with precipitation, while the dats are predet སྙོས་་་་་ However, this point of vaw is tristakon As a gr«rel » experiment is performed and evaluated, the individuais concerned ter interest in it They move to other jobs and to new projects and the of the original data, while theoretically possible becon.es pra *-*. cult as if the experiment were performed in a foreign country T'. larly true when, for one reason or another, the results of the eijer short of the original hopes of the experimenters The situation is aggravated by the following circumstances of a psychological character. It is human nature that any attempt by an interested research worker to have a closer look at the raw data of an experiment performed by someone else is bound to be considered as an intrusion and be resented. A special agency, established on the principle that the results of an experiment performed from public funds are public property, an agency established for the specific purpose of preserving this property, would be treated differently. (3) Need for theoretical research in statistical methodology and the design of experiments.-Experiments in physics and chemistry are as old as these sciences. They were going on without special theory and with great success, because in the laboratories it was possible to isolate the factors studied and to eliminate extraneous sources of variation. This was not and is not the case in the domains where great variability is an inherent feature of the subjects of study. Cases in point are agricultural, medical, and, more generally, biological studies. Here the variability from one plot of land to the next, from one patient or from one rat to another is so large as to hide the effects of treatments studied. In these domains, scientific experimentation was born in the 1920's and 1930's with the foundation, by R. A. Fisher, of special discipline: theory of experimentation. Through the work of Fisher and of his numerous followers, the theory of experimentation spread over many domains of science. However, thus far very little has been done with reference to weather modification experiments where there are special specific difficulties. In parallel with the extension of the theory of experimental design there are other statistical theoretical problems to be solved. Such work as has been done already indicates that merely by a change of statistical technique and/or by a modification of the experimental design, the time of experimentation necessary for detecting a significant effect of -cloud seeding may be shortened by a factor of two or more. Research of this kind requires special qualifications, those of a mathematical statistician. However, it cannot be conducted in the abstract, but requires contacts with live experimental and observational data. The creation of the proposed Statistical Weather Modification Facility would provide an appropriate ground for such contacts. Respectfully submitted. J. NEYMAN, Professor and Director of the Statistical Laboratory. STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEw York, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES RESEARCH CENTER, Re: your February 21, 1966, letter. Hon. WARREN G. MAGNUSON, DEAR SENATOR MAGNUSON: I deeply appreciate your thoughtfulness in inviting me to testify during the hearings on S. 2916 and S. 23. Prior commitments prevent me from taking advantage of your kind offer to personally appear before your committee, although I will be in Washington March 2, 1966. My general views about the importance of this subject have been stated in portions of the enclosed reprints. Anything I may say before your committee would merely emphasize my conviction that there is a big job to be done in this field, and it is of the greatest importance that all available interests should be invited to help do the job. In my view, it would be a grave mistake at this time to place the responsibility for this undertaking on any one Government organization. The widest spectrum possible of disciplines, and enthusiastic and capable individuals, is needed to cope with the present needs in this field. The following extract from my paper, "Some Problems Concerning Weather Control," published in the Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics (JAMP) 14, 523-528 (1963), represents my current views on this matter: "Encouragement should be extended to the university community throughout the United States so that they might bring their specialized knowledge to bear on the multidisciplinary problems involved. "It seems to me that the logical partners in such an activity are the National Science Foundation (to provide support for basic studies), the Bureau Coopera of Reclamation (to provide the engineering design and supervision), and the Weather Bureau to provide the weather forecasts and observations. tion from the scientific and engineering community will support a comprehensive plan if it is carefully developed and conducted with enthusiasm and imagination. The best individuals in each area of activity must be utilized in making the plans. We should continually search for high-ability young people to become actively involved in these activities if we are to achieve the long-range potential of such efforts. "I sincerely hope the time has come when we can go forward without further delay with a comprehensive plan for the development of our water resources in the sky, on and under the ground, enjoying the fullest cooperation of public and private organizations, scientists, engineers, technicians and our representatives at the State and Federal level. All are essential since we deal with one of the most complex and challenging problems in science. "Water and air are among our most valuable natural resources. adequately understand them and their interrelationship, we will not be able to properly develop, conserve, and utilize them to the betterment of mankind ***" Until we I plan to personally deliver 75 mimeographed copies of my more extended paper, to your office by May 2, 1966. I hope this may be helpful. Sincerely, VINCENT J. SCHAEFER, SOME PROBLEMS CONCERNING WEATHER CONTROL (By Vincent J. Schaefer, research consultant) In the nearly 20 years which have passed since the writer dropped 6 pounds of dry ice into a supercooled altocumulus cloud over Greylock Mountain in Massachusetts, (1) the field of experimental meteorology has developed into a major scientific activity engaging atmospheric scientists throughout the world. The rash of entrepreneurs and "rainmakers," which developed shortly after these experiments were announced, and the expansive claims and brash attitudes, played on the relative ignorance and desperate situation of groups of farmers and ranchers, mulcting them of hundreds of thousands of dollars; at the same time putting the entire field of experimental meteorology in disrepute. This unfortunate development has gradually been supplanted by individual scientists and research groups anxious to establish the scientific facts and thus delineate the possibilities and limitations existing in this new area of science. The task of establishing a sound scientific understanding of the effects of seeding and other triggerlike effects which interfere with the "natural" course of events in atmospheric processes, is fraught with intricate problems, not the least of which is our limited knowledge of many of the fundamental dynamic properties of the atmosphere. Such seemingly simple things as the formation of snow and rain, the cause of the electrical charge buildup in thunderstorms, and the structural features of cumulus clouds, are inadequately understood at the present time despite several decades of intensive studies. In view of the current discrepancies in our knowledge, it is not surprising that occasional disagreements take place during meteorological meetings dealing with the effects of cloud seeding operations. Because of its vast complexity, there is probably no scientific subject more difficult to understand than the behavior of the atmosphere. As Langmuir has pointed out, (2) the many atmospheric processes which combine to cause weather developments include phenomena of a divergent nature. Such phenomena defy prediction, since they result from minor disturbances which trigger off major results. Only convergent-type phenomena lend themselves to prediction. In one of his later public lectures, Langmuir said, “It may be easier to make the weather than to predict its behavior." The activities of Project Cirrus (3) between 1947 and 1952 established a number of the potentialities and limitations of the use of dry ice and silver iodide as seeding materials. In the 10-year period following the termination of the Cirrus operation, a number of more elaborate research programs were conducted, the results of which are only now being published. As might have been expected, the results of these efforts are not without disagreement. They range from the reports of research groups in Arizona (4) and California (5) covering 4 years of aerial and ground seeding effects with the use of silver iodide generators, reporting no statistical evidence supporting increased precipitation; to the findings of the Australian group, (6) showing precipitation increases of 9 to 21 percent with some statistical significance, to the highly positive but not yet statistically significant of the Japanese, (7) reporting increases of 150-percent precipitation downwind of the Sea of Japan. Other studies, not yet ready for publication but conducted by capable researchers known to the writer, imply that the Japanese result may be quite real due to ideal conditions and well designed and operated fieldwork. In areas of the world adjacent to rich moisture sources where supercooled clouds develop in abundance and naturally occurring ice nuclei are rare, seeding effects may be quite spectacular if intelligent activities are conducted. On the other hand, there will be geographical areas where little if any effects can be expected no matter how intensive or intelligent the effort. At the present time there are few countries in the world that do not have field programs underway in experimental meteorology. (8) At the International Conference on Cloud Physics (9) held September 1961 in Australia, more than 70 scientists representing 17 countries described the progress being made in their respective areas. These efforts ranged from token activities to very elaborate and intensive studies on a wide front. Research is now being directed toward a wide variety of problems related to experimental meteorology ranging from cloud modification to some which closely approach "weather control." These include such efforts as the studies of simple systems involving supercooled fogs and stratus clouds, hailstorms, orographic snowstorms, "lake effect" snowstorms, thunderstorms, tornadoes, orographic cumulus, manmade cumulus, "blowdown" storms, hurricanes, frontal cyclones, and large-scale circulation. Some of these studies are well underway; others in only the initial exploratory phase. In a number of instances multiple studies of these storm types are underway in different parts of the world. Some results will be similar, but others are bound to show differences since there are few places where all of the significant variables are the same or even have any but the most superficial features in common. Dry ice and silver iodide are still the most promising materials for producing "trigger" effects in atmospheric clouds, although they are strictly limited to supercooled clouds. While the majority of the activities in various parts of the world utilize silver iodide invisible smokes from ground and airborne generators, (10) (11) a number of new materials and effects are the subject of investigations. The introduction of positive or negative ion clouds in substantial quantities has been achieved by Vonnegut (12) in Texas, Illinois, and New Mexico. Claims have recently been advanced by the Russians that substances such as phloroglucinol are as effective as silver iodide and become active as nuclei for ice crystal formation at a temperature of -2° C. Procedures for generating high concentrations of these materials are not currently as easy to carry out as with silver iodide. The placing of finely divided carbon black into clouds to modify them was given enthusiastic support for a short period. Further studies, however, failed to confirm the results claimed, and the present status appears to be that effects, if any, are of dubious economic value for affecting clouds. Sodium and calcium chloride, ammonium sulfate, and similar substances, some having a hygroscopic nature, have been tried as materials which hopefully would initiate warm rain precipitation. It was hoped that the results might be as effective in warm clouds as silver iodide and dry ice is in supercooled clouds. These materials thus far have failed to produce effects to a degree of economic value. This is because the warm cloud lacks the instability that makes the supercooled cloud so easy to modify. The other feature so important in economic evaluation is that silver iodide is effective when about 0.01 micron in diameter. Dry ice and similar materials colder than -40° C. are as efficient as silver iodide, weight for weight, when used properly. Materials thus far used in warm clouds must be 1 to 10 microns to have any effect. Thus the volume or weight of materials necessary to produce triggering reactions (if they can) must be at least a million times greater. If delivery is by plane or even by some sort of ground generator, the logistical problems make such procedures of doubtful economic value. While it has been demonstrated (13) (14) that relatively small amounts of water can initiate precipitation in warm clouds by a “chain reaction,” the economic value of such operations is also doubtful except under very special conditions. |