major problem, scientific problem, was to determine the conditions under which the modest increases in precipitation might occur. It didn't occur to us that there might be situations in which we would have an unfavorable result.

Yet, as a consequence of that long series of studies, we now come to realize that indeed there may be periods in the weather, certain weather situations in southern Missouri, in which our seeding, using standard seeding techniques, resulted in decreases in the precipitation in that region.

Now it is perhaps only an accident that you have chosen Oklahoma for your example rather than Nebraska, because it so happens that in the weather conditions which in Missouri appeared to be favorable for these decreases; in fact, they are more common in Oklahoma than they are in Missouri. And I think it illustrates the necessity for simultaneously providing for a research capability that will ferret out the scientific bases on the operation of clouds and the degree to which we can modify them, while at the same time being as equitable as one can to the needs of individuals.

Certainly for the municipality that is running out of water, this is a first-rate public problem that has to be recognized, too.

Senator DOMINICK. I have been a member of the Interior Committee on the House side, and the Senate side, since I have been in Congress. I was instrumental in getting further authorization and appropriations for weather research for what I had hoped would be applied research for producing more precipitation.

As you probably know, there is a considerable problem now in the Colorado River Basin among all of the States served by the Colorado River as to who is going to get what share of the water.

Dr. BRAHAM. That isn't just a "now" problem, is it?

Senator DOMINICK. I said we have had a long-time problem with California and California says they have had a long-time problem with Colorado. We now have a proposal that there be a study on the importation of water from the Northwest in order to supply additional water. It seems to me that it would be of vast value to the people of this country if we could solve this problem and perhaps we could solve it by inducing more precipitation in the Colorado River Basin instead of importing water from the Northwest. And with one noticeable exception that you referred to in the very small project that is being conducted by the Bollays in Boulder, we are not having any applied research in that area under governmental funding.

Now this is a real problem, not only to Colorado, but to all of the States and the people who live in those areas. And it occurs to me that we have a situation where if a Government research program was to be done in one small area with control areas on the outside, the opportunity of the States to use weather programs, or private industries to hire commercial operators for weather programs might be substantially curtailed to the detriment of the whole area. I wonder how you put these things together?

Dr. BRAHAM. Certainly curtailed. Now whether it is to the detriment of the whole area, of course, is the fundamental question that has to be resolved and presumably that has already been resolved if the Government undertakes an operation in that area, which requires the curtailment of seeding in other areas.

Senator DOMINICK. Well, perhaps I don't follow your reasoning on that. The people of California might have a totally different idea than does the particular program operator who is conducting one in a small section of the Colorado mountains.

Dr. BRAHAM. We are searching for a mechanism by which we can make an equitable decision and I think that the suggestion of one of the earlier speakers at this hearing is useful at this point. It was suggested that there be instituted a Board similar to the CAB, a Board that has the power of regulation and licensing, before which hearings of all parties interested in this problem might be heard.

Senator DOMINICK. This is exactly what I hoped you would say. I gather you think that this Board is a worthwhile idea.

Dr. BRAHAM. I think that it is obvious that ultimately such a board will be required. Now there may be a question as to whether there is need today for such a board, but ultimately as weather modification becomes more and more highly developed, such a board will have to be formed.

Senator DOMINICK. Do I understand that you think this Board should be separate and apart from any of the existing departments or agencies of government?

Dr. BRAHAM. I think it should be separate and apart from any agency that has an interest in the problem. Now there indeed may be appropriate agencies that have no applied mission in weather modification to which this Board could be attached.

Senator DOMINICK. Do you feel that the National Science Foundation might be such an agency, which would be capable of doing the regulation and have regional coordinating offices, such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder?

Dr. BRAHAM. I think it would be rather unfortunate if the National Science Foundation was placed in this position. They have an operational program in basic research and weather modification.

Senator DOMINICK. If such a Board is established I would presume it would consist of representatives of the different operating agencies, is that accurate?

Dr. BRAHAM. I would assume so, but also representation from the private sectors of our economy. I think that it is necessary to recognize these.

Senator DOMINICK. Have you made any study or given any extended thought to the size of any such agency?

Dr. BRAHAM. No; I have not.

Senator DOMINICK. The present bill, as you know, contemplates that the Commerce Department would take over centralization of authority in this area. Do you have any comment on that?

Dr. BRAHAM. My comment would be that the Commerce Department has a great contribution to make in the area of weather modification by virtue of their competence in atmospheric sciences, particularly in ESSA and for this very reason the Commerce Department should be disqualified as an agency with whom to lodge this Board. Senator DOMINICK. You don't want someone incompetent on this Board?

Dr. BRAHAM. We are not saying that the people on the Board should be incompetent. What we are saying is that the Board

should be autonomous insofar as not being attached to any of the agencies that have vested interests in the subject. I think it would be difficult enough to make the decisions of the types you raise, about the community in western Oklahoma, without handicapping this Board by placing them in an environment where their actions are always suspect, even though the individuals may indeed have the best interests of their job at heart.

Senator DOMINICK. All I can say is, I don't envy the job of anybody who is on that Board. I don't know how it is in the East, but I do know that in the West you start tampering with someone's water, and you are liable to get shot.

Dr. BRAHAM. Isn't it true that other boards do have difficulties such as allocating radio channels?

Senator DOMINICK. That doesn't involve someone's life.

In your statement, you refer to the viable weather modification program we have today. What are you taking into account in that phraseology? What do you refer to as the viable weather modification program that we have today!

Dr. BRAHAM. Weather modification will advance only as fast as our understanding of the basic atmospheric sciences will advance. This is the framework which I have to answer your inquiry.

Now the weather modification program we have today involves work sponsored by the Department of Interior, involves that of the Weather Bureau, Navy, that sponsored by the National Science Foundation, and private university sectors. It is a rather broad one. But certainly it is making progress in many areas. For that reason I feel it is viable.

Senator DOMINICK. There have been suggestions that we ought to sharply increase the amount of funding. What is your position on that?

Dr. BRAHAM. I think the scientific engineering community involved here certainly is in a position to usefully and intelligently handle an enlarged program.

Senator DOMINICK. We have also had some questions as to whether we have enough scientific personnel trained in fields which would apply directly to the weather modification questions, atmospheric questions, that we have still facing us. What is your view on that?

Dr. BRAHAM. This is one of the problems, and I would not favor abuse of great magnitude, lest indeed we would run into this very problem. But I do believe that the growth potential of this community, of science and engineering that is involved, and their present potential, their present capability is adequate for handling an enlarged program. Part of this program, indeed, should be the continued development of that community itself.

The universities have a role to play here in increasing our manpower in this area.

Senator DOMINICK. Would anything of value be obtained from research in basic science if the Government should fund and contract a major weather modification program for increased precipitation in the upper Colorado River Basin?

Dr. BRAHAM. If that operation is properly organized to carry it out, very definitely, it would. It would be basic science. There

59-528-66-pt. 1-20

would be basic science advantages. Perhaps I might read a short portion of a paragraph.

Senator DOMINICK. Just before you do, let me just ask a couple more questions.

You say basically oriented and carried out. Now, would part of this involve the participation of commercial operators in actually providing the technique for seeding?

Dr. BRAHAM. Well, I would assume so. I wouldn't think that it would have to, but it would seem to me that it is a logical way of proceeding.

Senator DOMINICK. How large an area do you think should be covered in order to make this realistic, both from terms of results and terms of scientific knowledge that might come from it?

Dr. BRAHAM. I think that is a matter that would have to be decided by considerable study. Right offhand I couldn't say. I am fairly sure that we do know enough about clouds to be able to predict that if you want the answer for the upper Colorado, the research will have to be carried out in Colorado. Similarly if you want the answer for Montana, it will have to be carried out in Montana, because of the great variability and the rates at which cloud processes proceed. I would be very hesitant, for example, to try and extend the results of our work in Missouri beyond a limited geographical region. So the actual size depends upon a number of things: the logistic capability, the terrain, and other things. It would require considerable study, but I am quite sure to put it in a framework that we are talking about an operation that comes in six figures, seven figures maybe, if this gives us a feel for what we mean by size.

Senator DOMINICK. In other words we have the conditions from the point of view of orographic conditions and cold weather which might be very fruitful in trying to conduct a fairly large scale program?

Dr. BRAHAM. I would say so, yes. It seems to me that there are basically two approaches one can take. One can follow on the oftquoted criticism of the scientific community, that we learn all about everything before we proceed.

Now indeed, if we knew in great detail the physics of the clouds and their response to various things, one then might be able to predict the results that would come from seeding in a particular location. The other alternative however is to carry out meaningful scientific programs in various areas

Senator DOMINICK. To see if they work.

Dr. BRAHAM (continuing). To see if they work.

Senator DOMINICK. I am with you.

Dr. BRAHAM. By meaningful at this point I do mean that we have to organize them in such a way that we are able to tell whether they work.

Senator DOMINICK. I understand.

Dr. BRAHAM. And for this purpose we have to admit the possibility of a negative answer as well as a positive one, although in organizing the thing, I should think it would be rather foolish to organize a project which we were pretty sure was going to fail. We will organize those where we think the results are likely to be useful. But we have to be prepared to accept whatever the answer turns out to be.

Senator DOMINICK. Doctor, one of our witnesses yesterday referred to the fact that other governments were ahead of us in this field: France, Italy, Japan, Russia, and Brazil. Do you have knowledge of how they approach this problem of coordination of efforts, working with commercial operators and what they are particularly emphasizing?

Dr. BRAHAM. My specific and detailed knowledge is limited primarily to the Australian problem. I have served as a consultant to the Australian Government in their cloud seeding efforts. In Australia the weather research, weather modification research, is under a branch of the Government. It is operated, managed, handled entirely within that Government basis, no commercial operators involved.

Senator DOMINICK. What are they attempting to do? All the things we are trying to do?

Dr. BRAHAM. Generally speaking, yes, although the full scale of their operation is considerably below that of the United States. They have basic research going on, they have laboratory research, basic cloud studies; they were pioneers in studies to understand the basic physics of clouds. They have cloud seeding operations going on in orographic situations.

Senator DOMINICK. Do you feel they are ahead of our knowledge or do you think that they are ahead of our technique in organization of experiments?

Dr. BRAHAM. No, I don't think so. I think that there is complete communication between the Australian groups and our groups, and I think that they are certainly not ahead in knowledge.

In organization I think the Government of Australia recognized the fact that they have a country the size of ours and 10 million people in it, and that if anything was to be done by way of increasing the precipitation, it would be done by Government agencies.

Senator DOMINICK. In general then, as far as this legislation is concerned, you agree with some of the other witnesses that we should in the long run, at least, have a regulatory body and that the various departments which are now conducting research on operating techniques, should continue in their present framework with perhaps a gradual increase in the funding for these operations?

Dr. BRAHAM. That is the substance, yes.

Senator DOMINICK. Thank you very much, Doctor. You have been very helpful.

These hearings will be recessed now until they are taken up in the field in Denver on the 31st of March and the 1st of April.

(Whereupon, at 11:35 a.m., the committee adjourned, to reconvene in Denver, Colo., on March 31 and April 1, 1966.)

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS,

New York, N.Y., March 14, 1966.

Re S. 2916.

U.S. Senator WARREN G. MAGNUSON,
Senate Office Building,

Washington, D.C.

DEAR SENATOR MAGNUSON: The following information is presented in reply to your letter of February 28, suggesting that the American Society of Civil Engineers submit a statement with regard to your pending legislation S. 2916. We appreciate your reply and the opportunity to comment.

Research and practice in the field of weather modification are important to national water resources and control of damage, significant to air transportation,