Senator DOMINICK. I don't mean to be blunt, but I am a flier, as you may or may not know. From what you have said we are no further ahead in finding out what is going to happen 9 hours from now than we were before.

Dr. MALONE. Well, I would not be quite that pessimistic, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Suppose you were a flier, and you receive a weather prediction, and a degree of uncertainty is built into the prediction; how are you supposed to know what you are going to face when you get there?

Dr. MALONE. Well, if I were a flier, and a forecaster gave me a forecast for 9 hours, I would first of all recognize that from previous experience that he is not always going to be right. What I would like very much to know is in this particular instance what kind of confidence he attaches to that prediction. Is he quite sure of it, as he is on some days, or is he relatively unsure of it as he is on other days. This would be useful, I believe.

Senator DOMINICK. As fliers, we have a rule of thumb in our area. If the forecast is for good weather 9 hours from now, we can be relatively assured it will be miserable weather, and vice versa. Have the results of your experimental program been transferred to the Weather Bureau?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir, the Weather Bureau has access to all of this. We work quite closely with them.

Senator DOMINICK. Do you know whether the people are being trained in the methods and modes which are advocated in this report, or are there no new methods and modes advocated?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir, I think there is continual progress in the application of new techniques and in particular, the use of the computer in analysis of the tremendous amount of data which is available to the airlines forecaster, the airways forecaster, and there is constant updating and incorporation of these newer techniques into operational procedures.

Senator DOMINICK. Is this part of an overall weather modification program then?

Dr. MALONE. No, sir. That is directed at the prediction problem. Senator DOMINICK. Don't you have to have that in order to be able to determine what you are going to do to modify the weather?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir, that was my point here on the unity of the meteorological problem. To the extent that you can't describe something, you can't understand it. So you start with measurement. You can't with any intellectual satisfaction predict something you don't understand, and if you can't predict something, you are limited in the degree to which you can control it, because you don't know whether your intervention produced results or whether those results would have happened by natural processes anyway.

Now it is not quite that rigid, but that is the sequential set of steps which make up the whole problem.

Senator DOMINICK. In the consideration of this 9-hour forecasting proposal, did you go further and try to determine whether it was easier or more difficult to give a 24-hour or 48-hour forecast of general weather conditions? In other words, it might not be accurate within 100 or 200 feet on ceilings or whether the clouds were onium tạ น.

scattered or broken, but you could describe the general conditions of the area.

Dr. MALONE. In general, the accuracy deteriorates with increas ing time, so that your 24-hour prediction is less precise than your 9-hour prediction, given the same element as the predictant.

Senator DOMINICK. Wouldn't you say that in order to conduct accurate weather modification programs you must be able to determine whether a storm is going to be moving into the area at least 24 or 48 hours ahead of time, so that you can be prepared to start mod.fication programs?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. What I am trying to figure out is which comtess first. In other words, whether in the effort of trying to modify weather we first need a system of accurate forecasting, or whether we need the science of modification when you already have the weather

overhead.

Dr. MALONE. This is a vexing problem, Mr. Chairman.

The evidence indicates that the amount of rainfall can be increased in certain cases by something like 10 percent.

Now it is extremely difficult to predict rainfall within 10 per ent of the actual amount that falls. So that we have the anomalous situation in which it seems likely that one can influence the amount of ra. fall by a percentage change, which is finer or closer than the n of satisfactory forecasting.

Senator DOMINICK. Have you any idea how many programs are now in operation on an experimental basis to determine the best methods for weather forecasting!

Dr. MALONE. No, sir, I don't have a ready number to give you There are programs inside the Government, the Weather Bureau, t Air Force, and the Navy; there are programs at the universities, forecasting is taught. There are efforts in industrial concerns d.res tel to forecasting, but I don't have a single number that I can give yo of which I would be confident.

Senator DOMINICK. How many of these programs is Trave involved in?

Dr. MALONE. Well, it does work for the Navy, for the Air For e, ar : for the Weather Bureau.

Senator DOMINICK. These are separate programs!

Dr. MALONE, Yes, sir, they are.

Senator DOMINICK. Separately funded?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Are they operated by the same group of p or different people!

Dr. MALONE. Same group of people; yes, sir, so that the cooper tion is achieved internally,

Senator DOMINICK. They are all concerned with forecast Dat

Dr. MALONE. Not all of the programs that Travelers Resep Center is conversed with are forecastag; no, sir. There is an a ta waffen tue Center which is addressed specifically to the fore ast proberem.

Serator DominICK. You said you were doing work for the N Ar Force, and for the Weather Bureau; is that correct!

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Are you doing anything for FAA?

Dr. MALONE. I don't believe so right now. I can't tell you exactly. Senator DOMINICK. Do you have more than one program from each of those agencies?

Dr. MALONE. Not in forecasting; no, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Do you have one forecasting program for each of those agencies, each separately funded?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Is there any interrelation of information between one organization and another?

Dr. MALONE. Oh, yes, sir; the degree of coordination is really very high.

Senator DOMINICK. What is the difference in the three programs? Dr. MALONE. They are addressed to different kinds of problems. The Navy, for example, is interested in the state of the sea, in the conditions over the marine areas. The Weather Bureau was interested, for example, in the airways forecasting problem. The Air Force is interested in high level problems concerned with the winds, the free air turbulence, the cloud cover at high altitudes for their military

missions.

Senator DOMINICK. How long have these programs been going on? Dr. MALONE. At Travelers or in general?

Senator DOMINICK. At Travelers.

Dr. MALONE. For about 5 years.

Senator DOMINICK. Thank you. Excuse me for interrupting you. Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir. The character of the program will, to a large extent, be determined by the kinds of things that need doing; that is, the elements of the program. They would appear to be these

four:

Basic research directed at a fundamental understanding of the principal aspects of the problem.

Applied research directed at the development of techniques for successfully intervening in normal atmospheric processes as well as for assessing the consequences of inadvertent modification.

Operational application of proven techniques as soon as their efficacy is established.

Regulation as may be needed to protect the interests of the public and to prevent the contamination of field research projects.

It seems clear that the most conspicuous gap in the present national effort is in the applied research activity directed at the development and evaluation of techniques for weather modification.

Important considerations in the third issue, that is, the size of the program, are:

The need to conduct large field studies which require substantial logistical support.

The need to assemble groups that are sufficiently large and diverse in their disciplinary interests to make an impact on a very difficult and complex problem.

The level of $30 million by 1970 is, in my opinion, an austere estimate which takes into account these two factors.

An important consideration in the rate of growth of the program is the availability of competent manpower.

59-528-66 -pt. 1 -10

I endorse and call to your attention the comments of the panel that the intrinsic scientific interest and the national importance of this problem are likely to attract to it both the quality and the quantity required to expand the program from a $5 million level in 1965 to the $30 million level of 1970.

Senator DOMINICK. This is very interesting testimony. You say one of the most conspicuous gaps in the present national effort is in applied research activity.

Now what is the effect of the present commercial operators who are working on weather modification in certain areas?

Dr. MALONE. Their effect is to contribute to that gap, or rather to the closing of that gap. The commercial operator has the immediate objective of increasing rainfall. For example, in other words, his objective is a technique which will accomplish the weather modification. Senator DOMINICK. And some of them are also involved in forecasting, are they not?

Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Has there been any effort that you know of to try and correlate the results of the commercial operators in the two fields with the gap that you are referring to?

Dr. MALONE. Well, I believe that the studies of the Academy Panel were the first attempt to bring together into a single treatment the results of operational weather modifiers and the various research programs which are conducted around the country.

Senator DOMINICK. You talked about big science a little while ago, in reference to applied research. How big an area are we talking about? Suppose you are going to conduct applied research in a big science category for the production of more precipitation. How big an area are we covering, how extensive is it, and how long would it take to do it accurately?

Dr. MALONE. This depends upon the kind of problem you are attacking. If you are talking about the tropical convection problem, for example, you would be talking about thousands of square miles over the ocean areas. If you are talking about the orographic rain increasing problem, you would be talking about something of the order of 100 square miles. If you are talking about the cumulus problem, you would be talking about an area which would encompass several hundreds of square miles. If you are talking about the

Senator DOMINICK. Would it be feasible, Doctor, to take the upper reaches of the Colorado River—which I am very familiar with and I am sure you are too-in the high mountainous areas of the Rockies, and conduct applied research activity which would determine more or less scientifically whether or not you could produce more snow or more rainfall in that area?

Dr. MALONE. I am not sure I understand your questions, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. Would it be feasible to prepare a program which would be scientifically accurate in a reasonable sense for the production of more snow or more rain in the upper Colorado River reaches? Dr. MALONE. Yes, sir.

Senator DOMINICK. And what kind of an expense item are we talking about for a productive program of that kind?

Dr. MALONE. You could put it at various levels, depending upon the amount of basic measurements or basic research or understanding of the process that you wish to build into it.

My estimate here would be that a meaningful program would have a minimum level of several hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. If you instrumented this extensively and included aircraft, radar measurements, the expense could very easily escalate into a million dollars or more per year. This is about the range.

Senator DOMINICK. How long a period would a program of that kind have to be carried on in order to be meaningful?

Dr. MALONE. I would estimate about 3 years, 5 years-I am sure you would get opinions that would require 5 years to get meaningful results. And it would depend upon the kind of design you established as a basis for your experiment.

Senator DOMINICK. Is it correct to say that you must have continuity in these applied research activities on a yearly basis in order to determine whether there is any scientific background for increase in precipitation or snow fall?

Dr. MALONE. In general; yes, sir. I say in general because you can conceive of a design which covers several parts of the country in which you have in effect traded space for time, but you are quite correct, in general you need continuity.

Senator DOMINICK. We had testimony from the National Science Foundation about so-called rain shadow, and whether or not downwind areas get less rain after you have seeded than they would get otherwise.

Have you delved into this problem?

Dr. MALONE. I believe Professor MacDonald is going to delve into this in his testimony. I would be glad to give you my views if you would like them, but this is part of his testimony, and I think you would get a more authoritative response from him than you would from me.

Senator DOMINICK. I just want to say to Senator Hart, who has joined us here, I have been questioning the witness as he is going along in his testimony on matters that concern me and have been bothering me for a number of years. We are now on page 6 of his testimony. Senator HART. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Senator DOMINICK. If you have no questions, we will continue. Dr. MALONE. Sir, I think we are moving into an issue where you are a master and that has to do with the question of the management of the national program, the reorganization and the administration, agency responsibility of a program with far-ranging socioeconomic, and political consequences.

Do you wish me to resume, Mr. Chairman?

Senator DOMINICK. Please.

Dr. MALONE. Several options would appear to be open. One would be to allocate among existing agencies the four program elements mentioned earlier. Generalized guide lines are provided for this course of action in the report of the NSF Commission. Another, and one that would be quite responsive to the report of the Academy Panel and yet not be inconsistent with the alternatives set forth by the NSF Commission would be to recognize the obsolescence of the administrative division of the environmental sciences in the Government and provide a more appropriate home for weather and climate modification within a new structure that would take proper cog