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FEB. 4, 1893

VOL. VI. NO. 14.

NEW YORK.

Matter.

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THE

HE discussion about the German Army Bill, and its significance as a portent of war, still occupies the most prominent place in the European political reviews. It is noteworthy that all the German writers deal with the war question in most serious fashion. Although, of course, German opinion as to the merits of the pending measure shows a wide range, there seems to be no dissent from the view that the danger of war is always imminent, and that serious consideration of the war danger is one of the most practical concerns of the day.

A PRUSSIAN MAJOR-GENERAL ON GERMANY'S COMPARATIVE WEAKNESS.

In the Deutsche Rundschau for January, the Prussian MajorGeneral, C. Freiherr von der Goltz, discusses Germany's preparedness for war. He regards Germany's present strength as inadequate compared with that of France.

"People living abroad who have opportunities of hearing Ger

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Simultaneously a movement was begun in Russia for rendering all the resources of that vast country available for war purposes; and now the numerical strength of the Russian Army, as is well known, considerably exceeds that of Germany.

"We are not bound to accept the conclusions of foreign nations, but they are deserving the most careful consideration. That France has surpassed us in military preparations is indisputable, and any argument based on an assumed superiority in the quality of German troops and leaders is utterly unreliable. As good patriots, let us by all means cherish the sentiment, but there are no evidences in support of it.

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At the outbreak of the last war, Moltke laid great stress upon the fact that Germany could send 80,000 more men to the frontier than France could, and now France trains 42,000 men annually more than we do, and it is estimated by General Royuslovski that France, at the close of 1891, had 42,000 more trained soldiers than Germany.

"The passage of the present Military Bill will tend to the establishment of an equilibrium, for France has already strained her resources to the utmost.

"It is possible that we may be simultaneously assailed by France and Russia, In such case we confide in our allies, distrusting neither their good faith nor their good will, but alliances are transitory, while danger of attack is permanent. The arms of our friends may be paralyzed when we most need their aid, and to base the military preparedness of a nation on the calculation of the strength of existing allies, would be as imprudent as to leave a frontier undefended on the plea that it could be reached only through neutral territory.

'Current discussion of the subject by 'able editors' in Germany renders it apparent that the gravity of the situation is not properly appreciated. The question of two or three years' service is discussed as if it were a mere academic problem, and not a vital question as to the efficiency of our troops in time of war. But the nation is beginning to realize that it dare not longer sit still while a hostile and numerically weaker nation annually trains 42,000 more men than we, while with us 60,000 serviceable young men are annually exempted from military duty.

"This must be endured no longer. Sooner or later the day may come when our existence will be at stake and when, through our own fault, we shall be unable to put forth all our strength, or be compelled to take the field with hundreds of thousands of untrained men."

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RUSSIA'S SPIRIT.

The attitude of Russia as a factor of the general condition is discussed by an "Ex-Diplomatist" in the Deutsche Revue for January. Concerning Russia's spirit he says:

"The ground of Russian hatred of Germany is political, and dates from the Berlin Congress. The peace of San Stefano gave Russia ingress to the Egean Sea; and now under pressure of the Powers, headed by Prince Bismarck, she was deprived of this advantage. It was all very proper for Prince Bismarck to act as an honorable agent,' but Russia insists that he might and ought to have taken sides in her interest, and to have handed over Turkey bound hand and foot in Russian chains. Russia was embittered against Germany, the Drei-Kaiser-Bund was ruptured,

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Ruling an empire of two hundred and eighty-five millions with

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a European army of barely 70,000 men," says Mr. Blind, T

land has to be careful of her reputation-remembering the Sepoy Rebellion which in 1857 brought her dominion to the brink of the precipice. At the side of her own soldiers, England keeps 150,000 native troops in her Indian army establishment, and, moreover, 163,000 native armed police. A source of strength in ordinary times, these well-equipped bodies might, under critical circumstances, become a cause of grave apprehension. The Feudatory States within the English dominion in India contain armies of their own. According to the turn of affairs, they may act as serviceable allies or go a different way.

"Yet it is the possession of India which mainly gives England her standing as a great World Power, and which furnishes her with the largest market for the export of her merchandise. An English statesman, one might therefore expect, must have a watchful eye upon the approach of Russia by way of Afghanistan, through which country, from the earliest times, all those great historical invasions have come that have repeatedly, and fundamentally, changed the fate of Hindostan.

"If we look at the immense territory Russia has overrun and conquered within the last twenty years, from the Caspian Sea to the Afghan frontier, advancing even into Afghanistan itself, it must become patent to the least observant what she is really aiming at. To-day Lord Salisbury would not give any longer the same counsel he formerly gave laughingly to the so-called alarmists, -namely, that they should buy some very large maps, in order to see how far the Czar's Empire is still from the confines of India. Nor would Lord Beaconsfield look to-day with equanimity upon the situation which has been created since he thought it was still a long way from the Russian to the Indian fron

tiers.'

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Almost immediately after the last war against Turkey it came out that a secret envoy of the Czar had plied the late Ameer of Afghanistan with a proposal of an alliance, in view of a war to be waged some day by Russia against English rule in India. The documentary evidence is printed in a bluebook. Nevertheless, the English Government has allowed itself, year by year, to be deceived, or appeased in outward semblance, by the diplomatic assurances of the Czar's Government. 'China was not to be annexed. Sarakhs was not to be touched. Merv was not to be incorporated. Afghanistan was completely outside the sphere in which Russia intended exercising any influence.' All those promises are recorded in so many words. All were successively broken without compunction.

"Much of the strength of English rule reposes on the very contrasts among the populations of her vast polyglot empire in Asia. But with a powerful rival or enemy before its doors, these internal divisions among Indians may some day become a great weakness for defense against an aggressive and unrelenting despotic power which, if victorious, would step in with an oppressive military organization, having a host of half-civilized Cossack, Calmuck, Kirgise, and Tartar hordes as its retinue, and an administration more corrupt than that of any Oriental tyrant.

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There is at least freedom of speech and freedom of the press in India under English dominion. The National Congresses' held every year, without hindrance, at Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, for the sake of claiming parliamentary rights, are certainly proof of a degree of liberty which could not be dreamt of under the Government of the Czar for his own subjects. In Russia, exile to

NOT AN UNMIXED CALAMITY.

THE HON. FREDERICK DOUGLASS expresses his belief that those who apprehend a violent change, either in the general condition of the country or in that of the colored people North and South, as the result of the accession of the Democratic party to power, will be agreeably surprised. He says:

"The first and natural effect will be to make the white people of the South still more indifferent to the claims of justice and decency towards their colored fellow-citizens. Their attitude will be contemptuous and defiant. This feeling will not, however, be of long duration. They will learn by and by that their victory was not because of the treatment of the Negro, and that it does not mean any national approval of their persecution of the Negro and their application of lynch law to him upon mere suspicion of crime, but that it was won because the Southern question was not made an issue by the Republican party at the North. The campaign proceeded on the recommendation

of the Hon James G. Blaine, a recommendation which divested the campaign of every humane sentiment. Had the Republican party wished to hand over the reins of government to the Democracy on the latter's own terms, it could not, for the accomplishment of that end, have adopted a more effective plan of campaign. There was not in it a single moral idea to warm the heart or stir the conscience."

Mr. Douglass regards Republican defeat as a sort of Bull Run-a blessing in disguise. He still recognizes in the Republican party the only true hope of the black man. But knowing the President-elect and his influence with his party, Mr. Douglass believes he will promote a sentiment of peace and good-will between the white and colored people of the South, and thinks it probable that he will call a halt in the lynch law now so generally resorted to in the Southern States.

REPUBLICAN DISASTER.

T. THOMAS FORTUNE calls attention to what appears to him the patent fact that the development of a party is a long and tedious process, and that decay results only from a like long and tedious process. The Liberty party, the forerunner of the Republican party, held its first convention at Warsaw, N. Y., Nov. 13, 1838, and nominated James G. Birney for President at Albany, April 1, 1840. In 1860, the Republican party elected Abraham Lincoln. This had taken twenty years of education in the principles of human freedom. The party held the unin terrupted confidence of the people until 1884; that is to say, it took the party just as long to gain the confidence of the nation as to lose it. Since 1884 it has been fighting for existence, until the final rout of 1892. Mr. Fortune says:

"The party deserved defeat because it had abandoned the moral issue which had brought it into life, and it will not succeed, or deserve to succeed again, until it ceases to be cowardly and treacherous in dealing with the voters of the country upon the

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