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Except for iron, steel, and cotton, the larger portion of advances in prices of commodities reported since March last has largely disappeared. Earlier anticipations of a continuous advance in prices and demand this year, the outgrowth of the activity of two and three months ago, have met with disappointment. But there is little reason for the reaction in sentiment by many who discuss business conditions. Every wave of increased demand since the tide began to rise in March has resulted in net gain. Sentiment of traders generally is that the outlook promises an active spring trade, and that the holiday season will prove satisfactory. Prices of staples have reacted, leather, Bessemer, pig-iron, steel billets, wheat, wheat flour, Indian corn, oats, cotton, and refined sugar being quoted lower, and print cloths, almost alone, higher, altho in special instances at Western markets there is an upward tendency to prices of bar iron, hogs, and shoes. Prices for lumber, coal, naval stores, rice, and coffee are unchanged. There is a prospect that Western tanneries will shut down, which points to higher prices for leather and may weaken hides. Lower quotations for Bessemer pig-iron and billets represent a falling off in orders for future delivery, altho mills and furnaces continue actively employed. Leading cereals are lower because of excessive supplies for some and larger quantities of others than anticipated. Lower prices for raw cotton have no effect on cotton goods, as the latter had not advanced proportionately.

Bank clearings throughout the United States this week aggregate $1,121,000, a gain of 3.5 per cent. over last week, 18 per cent. as compared with the first week of November, 1894, and 20 per cent. in contrast with the total for the like week in 1893. The falling-off this week, in comparison with the like total in 1892, when the volume of business was very heavy, is less than 5 per cent. It is to such exhibits as this, together with greatly increased railway earnings, heaviest iron and steel production on record, widespread advances of wages, and prices for cotton and cotton goods promising prosperity during the coming season, that those should look who have felt only disap

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pointment in the falling away of demand since
September.-Bradstreet's, November 9.

Stocks, Cotton, Iron and Steel, etc.

The stock market was decidedly weak last weak, influenced by the disturbed condition of Europe, where the condition of Turkey and China have creeted substantial fears of a general war. Foreign exchange was high, close to the gold exporting point, and probably gold would have been shipped had there been much demand from remitters.

Altho the markets have generally been dull, the volume of business can hardly be said to have | undergone any shrinkage.

Both cotton and wheat were somewhat affected
by the apprehensions in Europe of great disturb-
ances. Both declined a little, while corn made a
small gain. Last week the exports of cotton were
not much more than half what they were in the
same week of last year, and the receipts at sea-
board points were just one half of the receipts in
the same week of last year, but the receipts since

September I have been nearly three fourths of
those of the same period in 1894.

Iron and steel are, generally speaking, in a good
condition, but there have been further declines in
Bessemer pig and steel billets, and the volume of
business is small. The large producers show no dis-
position to shade prices, tho the small producers are
doing this to some extent. The price of coke is to
be advanced to $2, at the beginning of the year.
Wages are higher than they were last winter, and
ore will not be cheaper next year than it is this, so
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will not sag much. Large orders for material are
coming from car-builders, and the American
Manufacturer predicts an enormous demand for
manufactured products next year, altho that
heavy increase in the demand for railroad equip-
ment so long looked-for is still lagging.

Unseasonably warm weather and heavy fogs along the Eastern seaboard have contributed to make trade a little slow, and more especially in the dry-goods section. Business in woolens and worsteds has been dull, and trade has been rather light in staple and seasonable cottons, but the market remains firm. Sellers who are disposed to make their terms a little easier are few and not very important. On certain special lines of wor

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steds for next spring, advances have been made, and the trade is awaiting the result. The sales of wool in the Boston market were slightly greater than those of the week before, but much less than in some weeks earlier in the season. Several woolen mills have shut down. -The Journal of Commerce, November 11,

Dry Goods, etc.

In the wholesale dry-goods trade business has been of the hand-to-mouth character, the mild weather having had a tendency to check the distribution of winter goods. This condition of affairs kept the sales of wool for the week down to very moderate figures, say 5,600,000 pounds. In contrast to the state of the woolen interest the cotton mills of New England are prosperous and still have large orders for goods, notwithstanding the unsettled state of the market for the raw

were nearly 18 per cent. larger than for the cor-
responding week of last year, hardly represent the
actual condition of trade, as the gain was con-
tributed largely by a few of the leading centers of
the East and West.

Cotton advanced in the early trading on a move-
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during the fore part of the week. Wheat was dull
and declined over one cent.-The Mail and Express,
November 9.

CHESS.

Problem 97.

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F. H. Johnston, Elizabeth City, N. C., found this solution, and Dr. Dalton, Brooklyn, found both solutions.

The second solution is (1) K-Kt 5.

This was found by M. W. H., University of Virginia; E. T. Runge, Chicago; G. A. Betournay,

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No. 94 was submitted as a position which had "offered considerable amusement for the local

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Black's 33d move was what did the business. After he had made his sound and brilliant sacrifice, he kept the White Queen out of play by some very ingenious maneuvers.

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Ajeeb, or Pillsbury.

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PRICE.-Per year, in advance, $3.00; four months, on trial, $1.00; single copies, 10 cents.

RECEIPTS.-The yellow label pasted on the outside wrapper is a receipt for payment of subscription to and including the printed date. EXTENSION. The extension of a subscription is shown by the printed label the second week after a remittance is received. DISCONTINUANCES.-We find that a large majority of our subscribers prefer not to have their subscriptions interrupted and their files broken in case they fail to remit before expiration. It is therefore assumed, unless notification to discontinue is received, that the subscriber wishes no interruption in his series. Notification to discontinue at expiration can be sent in at any time during the year. PRESENTATION COPIES.-Many persons subscribe for THE LITERARY

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ANOTHER GOLD DRAIN.

OLD exports were renewed last week. One million dollars. were exported on Monday, and over two millions were withdrawn from the New York Sub-treasury on Friday. There was talk of further withdrawals, as exchange had again risen to the shipping-point. Ordinarily November is one of the months in which gold is freely imported to the United States, and the unseasonable outflow is regarded as an extremely unfavorable symptom. Rumors of another bond issue are rife, and informal consultations are reported as taking place between Treasury officials and bankers in relation to the restoration of the reserve to the hundred million mark, the withdrawals of last week having reduced it below ninety millions. The causes of the unfavorable turn in the gold tide are discussed in the press comments given below.

We are Discredited in Europe.-"It may be said that this extraordinary movement is due to a large excess of merchandise imports over exports. And it is true that, for the last four months, there has been such an excess, to the extent of probably not less than $30,000,000. But such an adverse trade balance would not have produced the recent and the now renewed efflux of gold had affairs been in a normal condition. abnormal stock of gold and such a low rate of interest as now exist in London, and with an impending inevitable large export of cotton and cereals to offset our free importations, there should have been no obstacle to such an adverse balance being offset by bankers' credits or balances. Those sources of transient offset,

With such an

however, are unavailable. Foreign bankers are systematically refusing such use of their funds, and are generally requiring that creditor balances be remitted as they accrue. Also, foreign exporters are offering tempting discounts for cash payments, in lieu of the usual allowance of so many months' credit. In other words, with both the bankers and the merchants of foreign counforeign debts with a promptness scarcely ever before experienced. tries the American to-day stands discredited and has to settle his whether the Treasury may continue to redeem its currency obliWe are shipping gold, therefore, largely because of distrust

WHOLE NUMBER, 292

gations in that kind of money. This is a very grave state of affairs. "The Journal of Commerce (Ind.), New York.

Unfortunate, but Not Alarming.-"Theorists differ in their choice of causes to which chiefly to attribute the abnormal situation, but there are several causes that are obvious enough. Our imports of merchandise this year have been very heavy, while speculation in cotton and other products has unquestionably checked exports by artificially raising domestic prices. We have therefore an unfavorable trade balance to be settled by gold ship.

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'Another obvious cause of present conditions is the Kafir speculation. One of its results has been to compel many men in England and France to call in all the money they could for settling days. Their ready resource has been the sale of American securities. The unloading of these upon our markets has enormously increased the balance we owe to Europe, and its settlement calls for still more gold.

But

"The situation is inconvenient and even unfortunate. there is no reason to regard it as alarming."-The World (Dem.),~' New York.

The Old Trouble Over Again. "If we were in a safe and satisfactory condition ourselves we should not, being a naturally gold-exporting country, have any particular reason to be alarmed by the necessity that confronts us. But we are not in that desirable condition. We have only $92,000,000 of gold in the Treasury and no means of getting any more there without borrowing it through a bond issue. As that amount is already too small for the uses for which it is required, we certainly can not see it diminished with equanimity. Yet, such are the weaknesses of our currency system, practically all the gold which we may now be called upon to send abroad will be taken out of the Treasury. There is no new cause for alarm in this disquieting situation; it is simply the old trouble over again, and no doubt in due time its frequent recurrence will compel us to protect ourselves by a suitable measure of currency reform."-The Journal (Ind.), Providence.

An Untenable Theory.-"The most natural explanation would seem to be that the great discrepancy between the exports and the imports was responsible for this state of affairs. There exists, however, a disposition to combat most energetically this assumption, and to attribute the outflow of gold rather to the want of confidence abroad in the ability or intention of the Treasury to redeem its obligations in the yellow metal.

"This theory is untenable, if on no other ground because even when the prospect of the inflationists dominating the financial policy of this country seemed much more favorable than at present, no difficulty was experienced in keeping up the Treasury reserve, solely for the reason that the exports largely exceeded the imports, and the national debt was being rapidly reduced." -The Herald (Ind.), Baltimore.

The Outlook Not a Bright One.-"The situation, it would seem, is still summed up in the fact that the movement of capital is unfavorable to this country, and that neither through foreign purchases of our stocks and bonds nor by means of lending of foreign money in our markets is the relief forthcoming of which the exchange market stands in such urgent need, as, indeed, it has done for at least two years past.

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'As regards the continuance of shipments, the greatest diversity of opinion prevails among those who, by their experience and vocation, are entitled to pass judgment upon the question. Esti

mates vary so much that it would seem that the bankers are as much in the dark as anybody else. In fact, the most candid advices that can be obtained are that while the movement of gold is likely to be irregular during the winter, the outflow will be more or less continuous, unless, indeed, a tangible check can be produced in the movement through foreign purchases of our bonds and stocks. It must be admitted that while the outlook in this respect has improved, especially during the past week, it is by no means a brilliant one."-Bradstreet's, New York.

THE THIRD-TERM QUESTION REVIVED.

NOTWITHSTANDING the overwhelming defeat of the

Democratic Party at the recent election, a number of newspapers have renewed the talk of Mr. Cleveland's availability for renomination. Surprise has been caused by the flat-footed declaration of the New York Herald that it favors a third term for the President, for the reason that without him the Democratic Party has no chance whatever to win in the next campaign. The résults of the election are regarded by The Herald as a condemnation of the anti-Cleveland wing, rather than of the policy of the Administration. As that paper strongly opposed the movement for a third term for General Grant and raised the cry of "Cesarism," it has naturally felt itself called upon to explain its apparent change of attitude on the question. It says:

"

"Of course the Republicans and ambitious Democratic politicians unfriendly to Mr. Cleveland may try to make the most of the third-term specter, but people have only to think in order to see that there is now nothing in that cry, and that there is no possible danger of Cæsarism. That danger is to be feared only in the case of an ambitious military genius, backed by a strong army and military spirit. It was the legions of Rome behind Cæsar, and the soldiers of France behind Napoleon, that made power in the hands of those great soldiers so uangerous. The third-term alarm was very naturally and very properly sounded then when the admirers of General Grant moved to secure a third lease of power for him.

"All this is now changed, for Mr. Cleveland is not and never has been a military man. He is a civilian without the slightest military tendency or ambition. The army has been reduced to a peace footing, and a spirit of profound peace pervades the country. Under such circumstances it is nonsense to talk of the danger of a third term, and useless to try to arouse the people against it."

The Herald's call has attracted considerable attention and has elicited both favorable and unfavorable comments. few of these below:

We give a

Is it a Malicious Trick ?-"By a singular series of accidents or by the irony of fate, it so happened that the most conspicuous sufferers by the Republican earthquake last week were such Democratic leaders as Hill, Gorman, Smith, Brice, and the freesilver faction in Kentucky, all of whom had made themselves conspicuous by their attacks on the President and his policy. This fact has led the President to view the result with equanimity and to regard it as in reality an indorsement of his policy, and the undisguised rejoicings of his followers over the fact has naturally embittered the resentment of those Democrats who understand that the policy which they vainly attempted to stem and check is responsible for all the trouble. Therefore, realizing that no Democrat can possibly be elected next year, they have made up their minds, to force Cleveland on the ticket, and expose him to the full fury of the storm of popular indignation.”—The Times (Ind.), Brooklyn.

The Strongest Candidate Democracy Has.-"It would not be very surprising, in the circumstances, were the party political leaders to regard Mr. Cleveland as the strongest man whom they could nominate. Hill and Gorman may well be counted out, if indeed they were ever to be counted in. And the supply of hope.ful dark-horses is limited. It is patent that notwithstanding the popular prejudice against third terms Mr. Cleveland is still the strongest Democrat who at the present juncture could be put forward for nomination. Supposing that he is willing to accept the honor, it is well within the lines of probability that the Democ

racy may pitch upon him-not, perhaps, because of a positive preference, but because of the force of a logical necessity.”—The Record (Ind.), Chicago.

Stronger than His Party To-day.—“Looking the facts in the face, it must be admitted that Grover Cleveland is more esteemed by the American people than any other man in the Democratic Party, and is stronger to-day than the party itself. This is not saying that he has not made grievous mistakes, or that he is not sadly out of touch with public sentiment on important questions; that his bump of self-esteem is not abnormally developed, or that he is an ideal President. The point is that despite these things he is regarded as honest, fearless, and on vital matters right at heart. . . . If Mr. Cleveland continues pliant he will be the nominee. Whether he can be elected is another question. It does not look that way now."-Times-Herald (Ind.), Chicago. May Have to Take Another Nomination.-"It begins to look as if it will be necessary to give Mr. Cleveland another term in the White House. We are sure that both the Father of his Country and Mr. Tilden would approve the suggestion under the. circumstances. We are satisfied that Mr. Cleveland does not want it, but he may have to take it. He is the most conspicuous figure in American public life to-day."-The News and Courier (Dem.), Charleston.

No Victory Without Him.-"The New York Herald falls into the eccentric streak to which it is sometimes liable by giving countenance to the nomination of President Cleveland for a third term by the Democrats. It agrees with about everybody else in saying that, without Mr. Cleveland, the Democrats can not win, but thinks that with him they may win. We doubt if, in the event of his election under a Democratic nomination, it could be accounted a Democratic victory. Too many Democrats would vote against him to allow this to be a fair estimate. The problematical point, with Mr. Cleveland as a candidate, would be how many Republicans would vote for him. He would carry a large portion of the business people of the country, and the thoughtful men who can find it in their minds to be independent of party would vote for him in a body; but there are serious doubts if he would gain as many Republicans as he would lose Democrats. We shall never come nearer than conjecturing on this point, howThe third-term feeling is not to be tested in the next election, for the reason that there is not the slightest probability that Mr. Cleveland would harbor the thought of a third nomination if it were practicable for him to obtain it."--The Herald (Ind.), Boston.

ever.

Mugwump Holiday Must End.-"The present incumbent of the White House is not exempt from the established prohibition of third terms, because of his not wearing gilt buttons and braid on his customary frock-coat, or not girding his ample person with a sword. The American people will not destroy 'a part of our republican system of government' in order to continue the Mugwump holiday, even when there is no smell of gunpowder in it." -The Sun (Dem.), New York.

Republican Victory Doubly Sure.-"A Republican walkover next year is practically certain already, and while the Democracy is about it they may as well help to make the job complete. If they are sincerely anxious to see the third-term idea effectually squelched, let them propose a third term of Clevelandism for the American people."-Morning Advertiser (Rep.), New York.

The People and the Third-Term Specter.-"Altho the sentiment against the third term is practically an unwritten law of American politics, twice within the past twenty years has its shadow been cast over the country. These demonstrations from the ranks of the two great parties render a verdict from the people necessary. For this reason many thousands of Americans who are vigorous in their opposition to any man occupying the White House for three terms would welcome Mr. Cleveland's fourth nomination. They would welcome it, because they realize that the rebuke would be so emphatic that never again would the third-term specter raise its head. As a third-term candidate, Grover Cleveland would be beaten even worse than was Horace Greeley in the famous campaign of 1872.”—The Item (Ind.), Philadelphia.

A general article on the third-term tradition, is contributed by the historian J. B. McMaster to The Forum (November). He

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