Thus, in the case of some mining and oil prospects, and of many inventions, the only satisfactory investigation is by an actual “try-out”—that is, by a more or less complete development. As a consequence such enterprises while usually holding out large possibilities of profit also involve a proportionately large measure of risk which can only be avoided by avoiding the enterprises.

The investigation of an enterprise of this kind can only determine the possibilities. If the possibilities are good, the development of the enterprise will presumably be undertaken and may result in success. If they are not good the enterprise should be let alone, as in perhaps ninety-nine cases out of a hundred it will be a failure.

Mining Prospects-Speculative Possibilities

The two great fields of speculative enterprise are mining and invention. In these modern days, however, science has seized upon the field of mining and has eliminated much of its former speculative attraction. Prospects, "grub-staking," strikes of rich ore, and the other unlimited possibilities of concealed riches in a mine still serve to keep up speculative activity, but as a rule any intelligent man desiring to engage in mining-save as a prospector or small investor-secures the services of an expert and goes in on a strictly business basis. The general geological formation is noted, surrounding conditions and neighboring mines are investigated, the particular mine is carefully studied, its possibilities are, by expert diagnosis and the diamond drill, traced out and mapped, and the whole matter is brought down to the basis of prosaic system.

When, however, we come to the prospect, much of the old romantic interest still survives. The expert is, as a matter of course, employed to investigate, and does his scientific best, but the information obtainable is so scanty and expert opinion so greatly at variance, that the whole matter is usually left well within the realm of speculative possibilities.

The following discussion of mining prospects and their investigation brings out with much clearness both the possibilities and the procedure when the realization of these possibilities is under consideration:2

There is no line of business in the world where greater differences of opinion are found than in the calculation of a prospect. This is due not only to the lack of definite information on which the valuation can be based, but also to differences in the experiences and attitudes of the different ones making the valuation.

When handled in the proper manner there is perhaps no line of business which offers and has actually delivered such large returns on the initial investment as in successfully developed prospects, and where the same amount of personal attention and experience has been used as is necessary in any other line of business, the failures have been comparatively few. As a proof of this statement it is only necessary to look over the list of the fortunes in this country and see which of them were originally founded on an investment in a prospect. .

Valuation of Mining Prospects

"Hunches" are commonly supposed to be the basis for most opinions on a prospect, and to the uninitiated it often seems that they are responsible for the purchase of certain properties which have turned out to be big paying propositions. Luck also is credited with a great deal of this success, but in most cases where the "hunches" or luck has turned out to so good advantage it is noticeable that the man who did the buying with these factors in his favor was usually a thoroughly experienced man, with keen perception and good judgment, who knew the earmarks of a mine when he saw them. He is usually one who has spent years in and around mines, and had made good use of his time and eyes in observing the points which go to make up a mine. . .

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The task of valuation of a prospect would be easy if all surface showings or outcrops which resemble those of a producing mine positively indicated the same mineral content, tonnage, and other factors as in the producing mine which they resemble, but if exceptions are considered as proving any rule, the exceptions to this rule would prove it oftener than the examples which are found agreeing with it. In other words, although the majority of producing mines do have out2 Geo. R. Fansett in Bulletin 78, Arizona Bureau of Mines, University of Arizona.

crops or surface showings which are comparatively similar in their respective classes, it does not mean that a prospect having similar surface showings will necessarily develop into a producing mine. The common saying among miners that "all the rocks necessary to make a mine are present, but very little, if any, mineral is present," is only too true, and it is this factor which makes it difficult for any two men to form the same estimate of a prospect; the valuation may range from zero to a bonanza.

This is particularly true with prospects which are located in regions where there has never been a producing mine developed, when nothing but the geological factors can be considered. If, on the other hand, there are mines which have produced or are producing near at hand in that section the task of valuation is much simplified, providing the prospect lies in the same zone and has the same geological features as that of the producing mine. Much data from the developed mine can be used in helping to form an opinion of the prospect and, as is commonly known, this fact has been responsible for the purchase and development of some of the largest mines of the world. . .

Investigation of Mining Prospects

Since the valuation of a prospect usually depends upon the value of the ore at or near the surface more than upon any other factor, the first thing to be done after a careful inspection of all exposed parts of the deposit has been made is the taking of samples. The method used and the handling of samples after they have been taken before they are assayed, as well as the method used for measuring the width of the vein, were explained in Bulletins 63 and 66 of the Arizona State Bureau of Mines.

The values obtained from the assays of these samples are used for making the calculations for the estimate, and for this reason each sample, when assayed, should be run either duplicate or triplicate, so as to eliminate any chances of error which might arise.

At the time the samples are being taken it is good policy to take specimens of the rocks from the outcrop and from the surrounding rocks as well as the country rock. These are later used to make a study of the geology of the property, to determine the manner of ore deposition.

The deposit is also surveyed at this time, a map being made from the survey to be used for recording the locations and values obtained from the assays of the samples.

If favorable results have been obtained from the assays, indicating that the prospect is worth further attention, it is then advisable to have complete chemical and metallurgical analyses run on the samples, to determine if any unexpected valuable minerals are present and if the ore is amenable to reduction or treatment by the common or known processes at a price which will allow the ore to be handled at a profit. This is very important, as often the values obtained from the ordinary assays may be high enough to indicate a bonanza, but when subjected to these tests the treatment may be found to be so difficult or expensive that at the time the tests are run the ore may be practically valueless. Likewise from these tests the kind of treatment, the machinery and equipment necessary for doing the work can be determined and a close estimate of their cost can be made. All of these matters have considerable bearing on the valuation and most certainly should be taken into consideration to prevent costly mistakes.

If, in the judgment of the party making the valuation, the property offers sufficiently favorable evidence for further investigation, factors which are of a more certain and definite nature are then taker into consideration; the costs of the necessary equipment, machinery, buildings, tools, supplies, and other necessities along this line can be fairly closely estimated. A close study of the water, fuel, timber, transportation, climatic and health conditions should be made, as well as an investigation of the general and local governmental regulations and the rigidity with which they are enforced. The costs of erecting the necessary machinery, timbering, mining, road building, the supply and kind of labor available for this work, as well as the kind of management which is expected to handle the development, represent a few of the different matters which have to be taken into consideration, all of which have more or less bearing on the success of the enterprise, and which if not duly considered, may make a poor investment appear like a particularly good one.

Speculative Possibilities of Oil

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The realm of oil with its hidden stores of crude petroleum and reservoirs of natural gas, has largely escaped the deadening influence of modern science and system. Every wild-cat well is a "shot in the dark," with wonderful possibilities. A twentythousand barrel well is easily within the prospector's range of

vision. If he strikes oil it means that millions are his. If instead he strikes a "duster," it means that he has lost even that which he had. Nevertheless he is ready and anxious to try again as soon as he can beg, borrow, or otherwise accumulate enough to make the attempt.

The fascination and the speculative possibilities of oil, the gambling spirit it arouses, and a certain phase of the psychology of promotion are brought out strongly in the quotation which follows describing the excitement attending the "drilling-in" of a prospective oil well near Benavides, Texas. It was purely a wildcat proposition, for at that time there was no important producing oil well within 300 miles of Benavides and no very good reason for supposing that one would be found in that location.

The thing that caused and stimulated the excitement over this well was the confidence that was shown by the company in the successful outcome of the project. The well reached a depth of 3,490 feet several weeks ago, and the report was immediately noised about that oil had been struck. At first oil men and speculators paid little attention to this report, but when the company began cementing the hole, laid a pipe line from the well to Noleda, on the railroad, erecting loading racks and a steel storage tank, it was taken for granted that all this would not be going on unless oil had either been struck or was about to be found in big quantities. It was then that the real excitement began, and it soon reached a point the like of which was never before witnessed in any wild-cat locality.

The inpouring of oil operators, lease speculators, get-rich-quick promoters and others who belong to the tag-end of the industry continued for several days until the town was filled to overflowing and many of the visitors were forced to seek accommodations elsewhere pending the outcome of the "drilling-in" operations. From Laredo, San Antonio, Houston, Corpus Christi, and the oil towns of the more northern part of the State interested spectators came by the hundreds. Scores of them made the journey in automobiles. The rush far exceeded anything ever before witnessed in the history of wild-cat prospecting in Texas.

Then came the climax. Announcement had been made days in advance of the resumption of drilling operations that the work of