Lapas attēli
PDF
ePub

reliably by expert tests. By actual trial the expert can determine with exactness the strength of the brick, its durability, resistance to heat, cold, and the other details of importance in this connection.

4. Cost of Production. The nature of the clay and the quality of the product having been settled, there remain only the cost of production and the cost of marketing to be considered. The production cost may be easily determined. The cost of digging the clay may be determined by estimate, checked by the cost figures of neighboring brickyards, or by actual trials. The problem is a simple one and the solution easy. The cost of manufacture also is a matter already well known, unless special difficulties are encountered in the particular clay. If such difficulties exist they should be detected both by the working trials of the neighborhood brickyards and by expert analyses and investigations. If special difficulties are found, the cost of manufacture should be determined by working tests on a larger scale at the neighboring brickyards.

The local cost of fuel and labor are, of course, a mere matter of inquiry and, this settled, the only items of production cost still undetermined are any expenses of handling due to the particular location, which may be estimated by an expert with accuracy, as the whole matter is one of general knowledge.

In this case every point requiring investigation is capable of being decided positively, and if the results are favorable, the enterprise should, as a matter of course, be successful. If, however, uncertain elements are introduced, such as new and untested machinery, or a proposition to manufacture brick for street paving from an untried clay, or for the production of a new facing brick of a special form, texture, or color, the investigation is likely to be much more complicated.

A brick "proposition" bringing in some of these disturbing features is discussed in the following chapter.

CHAPTER XII

INVESTIGATION OF SPECULATIVE ENTERPRISES

Speculative and Semispeculative Enterprises

Speculative enterprises, as stated in the preceding chapter, are those in which the risk is greater than in the ordinary business enterprise. Oil developments in a new territory are excellent examples of a highly speculative undertaking. Dr. Butte, of the Texas State Railroad Commission, in a recent report on the oil industry in the state says: "Of the 1,051 companies that were organized to drill on the townsite of Burkburnett, less than fifty have paid any dividends, or even met their own expenses."

Speculative enterprises may be divided into those of a semispeculative nature and those of a purely speculative nature. The distinction is entirely one of degree. In the semispeculative enterprises the uncertain quantities may usually be worked out at a comparatively small expense, or perhaps by partial development, while in the purely speculative enterprises a considerable measure of development must be attained before the real value of the undertaking can be determined. It is, naturally, the object of the owners or promoters of an enterprise of a speculative nature to bring it as quickly as possible to the basis of an ordinary business risk—that is, to develop it to the point where it passes from the realm of speculation and becomes an investment proposition.

The Paige Typesetting Machine

The history of typesetting machinery affords excellent illustrations of the semispeculative enterprise. Here, in the early days, the only unknown quantity or uncertain element of the whole undertaking was the possibility of producing a machine that would rival the work of the hand compositor, or approach it

closely enough for practical use. Everything beyond this was a matter of common expert knowledge. The possibility of an operating machine was, however, a debated question. Many printing experts believed it impossible. Mark Twain expressed this feeling very clearly in commenting on the typesetting machine in which he became interested: "I knew all about typesetting by practical experience and held the settled and solidified opinion that a successful typesetting machine was an impossibility, for the reason that a machine cannot be made to think and a machine that sets movable type must think or retire defeated."

The problem of producing a practical typesetting machine was undertaken by a number of inventors. The most conspicuous of these mechanisms was perhaps the Paige machine, which was brought into unusual prominence by Mark Twain's connection with the enterprise, as well as by the ingenious intricacy and mechanical beauty of the machine itself. The most successful was the linotype.

The one doubtful point when Mr. Paige began his work was his ability to construct a practical typesetting machine. The condition of the art was well known and there was no question as to the demand for such a machine. At the time Mark Twain became interested in Paige's work considerable progress had already been made. The mechanical principles of the mechanism seemed sound, Paige's ideas appeared reasonable, and after investigation the parties interested decided that the probabilities were in favor of success. As stated by Mark Twain, "Here was a machine that was really setting type and doing it with swiftness and accuracy, too."

The history of this unfortunate undertaking is told in some detail in a subsequent chapter.' Its salient features were continual demands for money, long delays, and heavy expenditures, resulting in the final completion of a machine which, while a marvel of mechanical ingenuity, would not stand the hard usage of

' Chapter XIX, "Experimental Work and Model-Making."

everyday operation and was therefore an absolute failure-save as an object lesson.

The Linotype

The history of the linotype machine, on the other hand, affords a striking example of success. In this an entire departure was made from the principles employed in any typesetting machine previously attempted. The inventor took the ground-at that time entirely novel-that the successful machine must make its own type and do it in such a way that the ordinary difficulties of mechanical typesetting would be avoided. His idea was approved and the use of movable type such as is employed in hand composition was abandoned. The line was adopted as the unit, the machine when operated setting type molds in place instead of setting type, and on the completion of a line of molds of the desired length, casting the now well-known linotype slug. This forms in one solid piece a complete "line of type" matter, and from this feature the machine derives its name. The plan was original and striking. Its execution was daring and brilliant.

Details of the numerous mechanical difficulties that were overcome, and of the unfortunate differences between the inventors and constructors of the machine, are unnecessary here. It is sufficient to say that the idea was worked out to operative perfection-first so that the machine could be profitably employed, principally on account of its rapidity, on rough newspaper work; then, as the mechanism was still further perfected, on book work; and beyond this, yet further, until now it is used in every branch of the printing industry. It has been and is a complete and striking success, and the profits to those connected with it have mounted up into the millions.

The Uncertain Element in Typesetting Machinery

In the cases of both the Paige machine and the linotype, investigation was conducted intelligently and as far as was possible.

Most of the conditions were known. The question of patents, while perhaps not absolutely certain, was sufficiently so to be left for future determination. In either case, as stated, the only material uncertainty was the construction of an acceptable operating machine. So even did the chances of the two machines appear before their completion that the backers of the linotype offered to exchange a half-interest in their machine for a half-interest in the Paige machine-an offer which, unfortunately for the Paige people, was refused. In both cases the possibilities of loss and profit were clearly recognized and accepted in advance. In the one case the matter was successfully worked out; in the other it was not. In the one case hundreds of thousands of dollars were lost-in the other millions were gained.

In the case of the linotype, as soon as a practical operating machine had been constructed the whole enterprise was removed from the speculative class. Thereafter it was an investment enterprise depending mainly on good management-which was forthcoming in fair measure—and liable only to the risks of ordinary business.

It may be noted that at the present time if a new mechanism of the typesetting class were under consideration, the uncertain element might perhaps include the possibility of the particular design being worked out to operative perfection, particularly if it were a material departure in principle from the machines already perfected, but would hinge more directly on the possibility of constructing a machine so comparable with existing machines as to make it worth while to give it a place in practical printing— to enable it to make its way against present-day competition.

Speculative Enterprises

In the more purely speculative enterprises the uncertainties extend further than in the instances just considered—so far, in fact, that frequently the only way in which the value of the enterprise may be conclusively determined is by actual development.

« iepriekšējāTurpināt »