with another, I trust he may have gone to some clime whose habitants are equipped with plumes which render artificial means of flight superfluous.

In the autumn of 1878 I wrote an extended paper entitled, "Aërial Navigation (a priori)," which was published by "Scribner's Monthly," now THE CENTURY MAGAZINE, in February, 1879. Its acceptance, bearing in mind the state of opinion on this topic twenty-eight years ago, showed both open-mindedness and courage, and a willingness to follow Dr. Hale's motto, "Look forward and not back."

The paper opened with a confession that its writer rode a hobby, and a hobby early bestraddled; for it was as a youngster on a vacation, before the Civil War, fishing at Greenwood Lake and watching the perch move below, up and down, back and forth, in the shallows, that I conceived the idea that the fish model should be the first to insure measurable success -however advantageously progressive ingenuity might imitate the bird and arrive at the idea, in time, of a flying-machine heavier than the air. Of course I knew little of the mechanics of resistance, who did?-but my instinct was that the fish, totally immersed in its fluid element, was a palpable prototype of an "aërobat." This word I coined as a companion to "aërostat"-the word still properly used for a gas-bag that is not propulsive and dirigible at command. "Aëronon" is an equally good word, and "aeroplane" exactly expresses the new machine on the kite principle. At this time I went so far as to make some rude and crude diagrams, merely to show the application of certain principles; so I may confess myself sorry that they were reproduced then, for the paper already is yellow with age. Two other pictures were added, giving my notions of what might be expected at the end of twentyone years, and possibly to lend a little. more picturesqueness to my exposition.

First, I proceeded to show the utter failure of the slightest advance, over a hundred years earlier than my paper, upon [the Americans] Rittenhouse and Hopkins's use of hydrogen for ascension of a gas-balloon in 1783. Among the causes of the failure, I cited: (a) the impotence of an aërostat that is forced to

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lose ballast to compensate for the loss of gas; (b) the globular shape of the balloon, with its car hung far below, as if a fish shaped like an inflated bladder had tiny fins suspended by a ligament; (c) misconceptions caused by the use of the word air-ship-an aërial machine being in one element only, and not in an elastic and an unelastic element; (d) the futile attempts to capture and include the secret of flight, the study of the bird having had then only one outcome, namely, that its hollow bones furnished the natural combination of lightness and strength; (e) there had been no deliberate and scientific attempt by skilled engineers, and with co-adequate means, to navigate the air-all experiments having been relegated to the ignorant enthusiast, the crack-brained theorist, the would-be inventor, who, each in turn, spent only a few hundred or a few thousand dollars on his respective failure, where the aid of capitalists and governments was required. In contrast with the $5000, the most which any of these novices had expended, I referred to the readiness with which capital had placed $500,000 at the disposal of Captain Ericsson to build a steamer to test his caloric engine for marine propulsion. This showed that capital is provided when conditions are understood or even imagined.

Offsetting this failure, the fact remained that there was nothing in nature against the solution of the problem, which was wholly a mechanical one.

I condense briefly the long series of statements of what seemed to me then essential to reach an outcome:

(1) Forget the shape and uses of the old balloon: what was wanted was an airtraveler, governable at will. Forego attempts to construct a flight-machine until the principle of the fish model is thoroughly developed and utilized. The first confidence of the people at large must thus be gained. The submarine torpedoboat was cited.

(2) An aërobat must resemble its model in being so delicately upheld that the slightest motive power would elevate or depress it. Further on, I termed this condition "buoyant equipoise," and predicted the use no less of the vertical screw above or below for this purpose, than of the propeller in front or rear for

horizontal traveling; the aërobat to be so weighted as to float naturally a short distance above the earth; and to be dependent upon its motor for change of elevation.

(3) Every particle of advance toward unity of design was a gain. The machine must contain its power and freight within itself, at least as near as possible; must be an integral structure, not a motive appendage dragging an aërostat high above it with an adverse leverage proportioned to its flexibility.

(4) As to form, attention was invited to the shape of the elliptic fishes-to the fact that a pickerel will change its locality so swiftly that the eye cannot follow the movement; that the trout and salmon dart up the swiftest rapids; that the porpoise plays round the fastest steamer. Consideration, also, was given to the law that, although the air packs in front of a projectile like snow before an engine, and the resistance increases as the square of the velocity, yet the law is modified by the shape of the moving body; and that doubtless the side of the body, even not less than its head, shares in this modification.

(5) Motive power, and its application. by means of the screw, was considered, and how the benefit for the invention would be determined exactly by the advance in producing engines that would utilize greater proportion of the energy produced, and give vastly greater horsepower for each unit of weight.

(6) Coming to structure, it was held that the aërobat must be solidly framed and protected, not flexible; must be greatly longer than its beam, and divided into upper and lower chambers, if possible; must have a rigid framework, and in the end be made so large as to permit a metallic covering. Here aluminum was dwelt upon, the lightest of plentiful metals; the scale of reduction noticed in its cost; and the prediction made that it would soon be so cheaply produced as to be available. Some years afterward, attention was called to its greatly reduced price, in a letter to the "New York Tribune," supplementary to an article by Professor Newberry in the same newspaper. But at a long period later, Clarence King gave the writer his opinion that steel, on account of its greater ductil

ity, would furnish the greater strength for the same weight, and that the structure, if large, must be bulwarked at the front.

(7) Finally, questions of money, safety, steering, and the field of motion were discussed; as to dimensions and outlay, it was claimed that these must be on a grandiose scale, proportionate to the greatness of the enterprise, before practicable results could be reached; that any smaller demonstration would be merely a working model, which might warrant the application of the services of the best engineers to produce an adequate one.

One point also remains to be made. Two cuts in the article illustrated air-travelers of the near future, one of which, after the earlier stages of navigation, would be considered a clumsy affair, a kind of "Dutch bottom." The other was far more elongated, and a kind of "aëronon of the twentieth century." (See cut page 18.) Finally, it was shown that the gradual lines of advance should be through increase of lifting and propelling mechanical power, which should finally be so great as to meet the views of those claiming that atmospheric navigation can be effected only by a machine far heavier than the air.

About the time when that article was in hand, I had very fresh in mind the old Commodore's monition, "Sonny, don't prophesy unless you know!"-a monition strengthened by the fact that, within a few weeks after he himself said that he never bought more than he could pay for, his brokers temporarily suspended payment until he could raise money on the lender's terms to receive his own purchases. But I did not consider my forecast a prophecy,-that is, I did not look. upon it as containing much left to the fates or chance,-it seemed to me but the reading and interpreting of a text already inscribed on the wall; not the promise of things hoped for, but the evidence of things not yet seen by the average eye. And I repeat that time has warranted the confidence of conviction upon which I acted.

For the problem was even then solved in so far as that portion of it was concerned which was only the precedent to the other, and which is the only one in open practice at this writing. I made no claim to the invention of anything: so far as this was concerned, my work was a

thony Pollok of Washington, a trained engineer no less than a great and successful patent lawyer, the hero of the Goodyear litigation, and later the very protagonist of the Bell telephone war and victory, believed in my general theory, but held that even a model would not secure a patent for that which was in the air and, willy-nilly, "dedicated to the public" by its feeble experimenters. What can be patented are the special devices for applied results. Not the man who sees or expounds, but the man who does the thing, is the only legitimate patentee of modern inventions—or, more likely, the capitalist to whom he assigns them.

I will not deny that in day-dreams I often fancied myself doing the thing; but my own theory was against any partial experiments. Sometimes, with something of the childish pride which always accompanies our sleep dreams of levitation, I used to lie with shut eyes imagining the glory of appearing over New York, soaring above the course of Broadway, circling about the then "tall Tower" or Trinity spire, as a beginning of a straight course for Washington and a landing demonstration to Congress on Capitol Hill. Nothing at that day-not even news from Mars-could have been more amazing to the public. The man who should have done it would have made his name as unforgettable as Christopher Columbus. Yet now the evolution has come on so gradually, from the day of De Rosier in France and Rittenhouse and Hopkins in America to the beginning and latest of flights of Santos-Dumont and Count Zeppelin, that nothing short of an unexpected battle in the air would astonish us, in the proper sense of the word. Have we not had the search-light, the skyscraper, wireless telegraphy, the automobile, all within this period? The truth is, the public imagination is so trained upon invention and discovery that everything is possible to it. The error now is in favor of encouragement to inventors-just as in the literary realm there is too facile a process for making and selling worthless books, as a result of the copyright law and the transformation of our forests into printing paper.

In the summing up of the article, the writer "let himself go"-if he did not

rise "upon the wings of prophecy"-in contemplating what doubtless would be the effect of man's final conquest of the air, the only region as yet unadded to his domain. Presuming that if all things seen be regarded as a fanciful day-dream, I implied that the race had first to attain majority to be intrusted with the consequent illimitable freedom. Earlier, the gift would be fatal. I now feel like adding this: During my own life, no epochmaking invention has ever come until it was needed. Until the means of traffic and travel on the sure and firm-set earth had been thoroughly exploited, and it was time for flight, invention and capital never seriously essayed the problem, which is to be, after all, a greater advance for the twentieth century than the railroad and telegraphy for its predecessor. Moreover, until those former processes had steadily increased the economy of energy, and the advance toward perfection of mechanical motors, serious effort was impossible. As to the effects of aërial navigation, I said that the first and obvious one would be to make Decatur, Illinois, a seaport. I might as well have said Denver or San Moritz, the new ocean being everywhere and every spot on earth, from the Victoria Embankment to either pole, a "port of entry." Fourier's idea of the slower growth of overgrown cities would follow, and the multiplication of smaller land-locked centers of habitation, culture, and trade. I showed that Fourier's mistake was in urging us to effect, by a forcing artificial process, what only time and evolution could bring about-the desired distribution of population throughout the land. I showed that the change must be gradual; the art of aërial navigation long in perfecting; our primitive vessels and motors as rude as was Stevenson's locomotive; freight would long move, if not always, by water and rail; mails and express packages, and passengers would be the first transmitted; and a picture was drawn of the swift dropping of the great newspapers into towns and villages everywhere. Space was devoted to the thrills of wonder and ecstasy pertaining to the luxury of flight, which would render all former travel tame by comparison. And, those twenty-eight years ago, the article enlarged on the check upon the arrogance

companies, whose license and immunity and freedom were dwelt upon, including their evil control of law-making and practice. Aërial companies of course will be chartered, but who could impede the right of way upon these higher than the high seas? The quick adjustment of science to the new opportunities was predicted; meteorology, discovery, astronomy from the clear upper air, geology-in every direction knowledge would be amazingly increased.

Eventually new mechanical and manufacturing industries would arise, marked by grace, lightness, and strength. A new profession of aëromanship would exercise the labor of a countless army of trained officers and airmen; a new poetry and romance would have birth. Landscapes painted between earth and skies would take on a new universe of drawing, color, light, and shade. The ends of the earth would be visited by all. Sportsmen would have the world for a sporting-ground; the yachts of the air would be christened with beautiful names-Iris, Aurora, Hebe, Ganymede, Hermes, Ariel, and others not derived from the pure springs of Aryan beauty.

Above all, and influencing all, a new departure must at once be made in political science and international comity. Boulevards would be virtually abolished; laws and customs must soon more closely assimilate; free trade must be imperative and universal; the Congress of nations no longer would concern itself with academic questions. War perforce would come to an end, after perhaps a few destructive experiments; there would be no "ghastly dew" from "the nations' airy navies." Death-dealing aërial vessels and squadrons would be maintained solely for police surveillance over barbarous tribes and nations. The dawn of a Saturnian age at least would be at hand. I closed with an appeal for the liberal expenditure of a single government, or even of one of the moneyed corporations or some multimillionaire, of that former time, toward a solution of the problem. With or without their efforts, I said the result was even at our door.

The appearance of this article brought the writer into business. The general reader found it interesting. Fellow-wri

fancy, the verisimilitude of realism and romance, akin to Locke's "Moon Hoax," Poe's adventure of "Hans Pfaall," "MS. Found in a Bottle," "The Gold-Bug,' "M. Valdemar," "Arthur Gordon Pym." A fellow-member of the Century ClubNewton, an accomplished engineer-said that between ourselves I "meant it as a fake," and looked upon me incredulously when I assured him that I was in dead earnest. All this I expected, but I had not foreseen the instant attention the article gained from people in Europe and the States, who, it appeared, were concerned about the prophecy. I soon learned of the existence of foreign aërial societies from their official committees. From that time, for several years aspiring and impoverished inventors sent me diagrams, theories, even models. I have a great box full of such matters accumulated in those years. Despite newspaper scoffing, and the banter of minor engineers, and the raillery of my really learned friend Newton, who soon after died, I was surprised and gratified to find that various distinguished professional experts expressed great interest in my views, and, allowing for such defects as would be expected in a long article not based upon a full study of a subject, in the main coincided with them, so far as the coming solution of the matter was concerned. Notably so, Mr. Chanute, that able, open-minded, and distinguished civil engineer, official, and inventor, who has been the most able and hopeful thinker on the subject from that time to the present day. The talks with him and the views he gave me from his full knowledge made me quite content to have ventured with that paper at that time. At the date of my paper, I think he was the chief engineer of the Erie Railway, and soon afterward made his earlier experiments to test the relative resistance of the atmosphere to differently shaped railway cars, moving at different velocities. He never lost sight of the subject either by word or act, keeping step with every advance both in dirigible aërostats and in gliders heavier than the air. Toward the latter he directed in the end his chief interest, and he has always claimed that only two questions are left-those of stability and power. He has been the friend and con