Dr. LUBIN. Very definitely, through the Census of Manufactures and Census of Agriculture.

Senator KING. They make up a survey every 2 years now, formerly five, and before that 10.

Dr. LUBIN. The national income in dollars can, of course, be increased without more goods being produced. If the price level in 1 year is twice as high as in the preceding year, if prices go up 100 percent, the national income goes up 100 percent, but the physical goods available to the country have not been increased.

Representative SUMNERS. May I ask a question, please? Take the construction of a house, for instance: The people who sell the tree, that is income, is it?

Dr. LUBIN. That is part of the national income, yes; in other words, the value of the tree.

Representative SUMNERS. When the tree is manufactured into lumber and the lumber is sold, is the total value of the lumber figured in the income?

Dr. LUBIN. It is the amount added to the value of the tree when it is in the form of lumber.

Representative SUMNERS. Do they subtract from the price of the lumber the value of the tree?

Dr. LUBIN. Yes.

Representative SUMNERS. There is no duplication?

Dr. LUBIN. No, there is no duplication.

Representative SUMNERS. When you build a house, the house is worth, say, $6,000, but that is not regarded as income in total?

Dr. LUBIN. No. In other words, that house appears in the picture in the sense that you have the trees plus the value added in turning them into lumber plus the value that was added when labor was put on it to build a house.

Senator KING. There are bound to be some duplications.

Dr. LUBIN. Due to the fact that we haven't refined our statistical methods to the extent we would like to, but the amount of duplication is relatively insignificant.

The question arises as to what the increase in national income has meant to our people in terms of the amount of goods that has been available to us. This lower chart shows the trend of national income in terms of the people of the country, namely, how much is available for each person.

There you will note that between 1910 and 1919 the average was $428 per person. Between 1920 and 1929 the average was $607 per person. In other words, the income available for every man, woman, and child, were it equally distributed, increased 40 percent over a 10-year period, as opposed to an increase in the total national income of 60 percent. In other words, part of the increase, the difference between the two, was due to the fact that the population was increasing.

We have had to divide the national income among more people. The result was that your actual total income increased, as I said, by 60 percent, whereas the amount that was available for each person increased by 40 percent. The significant thing to note, however, is that we were increasing our output faster than we were increasing

1 See exhibit No. 5, supra, p. 5.

124491-39-pt. 1- -2

our population. In other words, there were more and more goods available for our citizens despite the fact that the number of citizens was increasing.

The CHAIRMAN. Have any estimates of this character been made with respect to other nations?

Dr. LUBIN. There are very few, sir. I have some figures for the year 1934-35 that show the per capita for other countries.

Representative SUMNERS. Dr. Lubin, you just stated that the charts show there were more and more goods. Now does that mean necessarily more and more in volume and more and more in days' work: does the value of labor and the value of commodities enter in at all? Has that been broken down so you can really speak in quantity?

Dr. LUBIN. This, of course, is entirely in dollars value. My next chart will show you what it means in terms of actual physical goods. Representative SUMNERS. While you are interrupted, would you mind indicating, if you have the figures, to what extent the volume of immigration and the policy of this Government with regard to immigration laws had to do with the increase of population? Do you have that?

Dr. LUBIN. We have figures showing the relative percent of increase in the population that is attributable to natural growth and the percentage attributed to immigration.

Representative SUMNERS. You have broken that down?

Dr. LUBIN. Yes. It has been estimated by Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton in their monograph prepared for the Committee on Recent Social Trends, Population Trends in the United States, page 303. The figures are for the white population only.1

Representative SUMNERS. Thank you very much.

Dr. LUBIN. Between 1930 and 1938, from there to there [indicating on chart],2 that per capita income, the amount of goods and services. available to our people as individuals, fell to an average of $442. The CHAIRMAN. That was from 1930 to

Dr. LUBIN (interposing). 1938.

The CHAIRMAN. 1938?

Dr. LUBIN. Yes. In 1932 the per capita national income of this country had fallen to $320, which you will notice is considerably less than it had been in the decade from 1910 to 1919 and the decade 1920 to 1929.

For 1938 it is estimated that that income per capita, the amount available in terms of goods and services for every man, woman, and child in the country will be about $472, which is about $68 less than was available last year and $150 more than was available in 1932.

Congressman Sumners, you raised the question about prices. What we have done here is try to eliminate the changes that were caused by price fluctuations. As I said, you might have exactly the same amount of goods available, but, if prices doubled, the value of the national income would also.

What we have done is converted these figures into 1926 dollars and thrown out all changes caused by price fluctuations.

(The chart referred to was marked "Exhibit No. 6" and appears on this page. The statistical data on which this chart is based are included in the appendix on p. 195.)

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1850 SOURCE U S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, W.I KING, AND BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

1930

Dr. LUBIN. You will note that there was a sharp rise, but despite that fact the changes were not as great as appeared on the preceding chart. In other words, between 1910 and 1919 the increase in the national income in terms of physical goods-we are omitting valueswas about 10 percent. Between 1920 and 1929 it was 93 percent. In other words we almost doubled the amount of goods and products produced. Between 1930 and 1937 there was an increase of only 2 percent.

Representative SUMNERS. Dr. Lubin, do you have anything to indicate the relative amount of carry-over from year to year? I suppose you wouldn't.

Dr. LUBIN. I think there are some figures. We have some inventory figures for certain industries.

This chart gives you both curves. This solid one being the change in terms of the current price levels, the dotted one being in terms of actual physical units.

(The chart referred to was marked "Exhibit No. 7" and appears on this page. The statistical data on which this chart is based are included in the appendix on p. 195.)

Senator KING. Wouldn't it be wise to identify your charts, the first one No. 1, and so on?

Dr. LUBIN. I think this is "Exhibit No. 7". I will identify them; I have a list of them.

After portraying the tremendous drop that took place in our national income in contrast to the tremendous rise in the last decade, it is interesting to see what the situation is in the United Srates as compared with other countries. The most recent authoritative data for other countries are for 1934-35, and they are only available for four countries. You will note the average income in 1934 and 1935 in the United States was $432, as compared to $401 in England, $345 in Germany, $321 in Sweden, and $267 in France.

(The chart referred to was marked "Exhibit No. 8" and appears on p. 11. The statistical data on which this chart is based are included in the appendix on p. 195.)

Dr. LUBIN. In other words, despite the marked decline in the amount of goods and services available to our people over the past 9 years we are still in a far better position than many of these foreign countries.

Senator KING. Wouldn't you strike out the word "many" and say "all"?

Dr. LUBIN. I think these are the four most important countries. Mr. OLIPHANT. Has the price factor been eliminated?

Dr. LUBIN. They are adjusted. In other words, we have adjusted our relative price levels between the different countries. We adjust them on the basis of the exchange rates prevailing at the time.

The CHAIRMAN. How accurate are the figures for the other countries?

Dr. LUBIN. We don't know. All we can say, they are the most authoritative figures we can get, some based upon Government estimates, and some on estimates by private individuals.

Senator KING. The statistical organization under the League of Nations has made a survey of the wages and salaries and compensation in many countries so that that would be a rather reliable source. Dr. LUBIN. They leave out so many other factors. You could get your wages; I doubt whether you could get dividends; I doubt whether you could get rents.

The CHAIRMAN. In other words, they are not computed on the same basis as our estimate of national income.

Dr. LUBIN. No; they are not.