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1. 3W, 110, 18V IN

Markets 1-50
Density-150

$12,200

Underground-10% 7.3%

7.0% 6.6%

21,18

37.9%

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tions we have reported. Some communities will have higher incomes,

others will require extensive undergrounding, still others will

require high-cost local origination facilities, etc.

To measure the sensitivity of our findings for typical systems

to such variations, we have rerun all of the intermediate-sized

systems (tables 5 and 7) assuming that penetration is one-third

greater than would be expected on average, for each set of market

characteristics. A variety of unmeasured factors can cause actual

penetration to vary above or below the average value predicted by

the penetration equation. In increasing the average value by onethird we have in effect selected only the 10% of the cases in which

penetration is most favorable; in other words, nine out of 10 com

munities having the same signal lineups, income, etc, will have

lower penetration.

Turning to the results in Tables 9 and 10 we find that such

unusually high penetration is sufficient to produce at least one

profitable system in each type of market, at least if copyright

fees are absent. Thus, 7,500-10,000 subscriber systems have some chance of earning a going rate of return in the top 100 markets only when local circumstances produce unusually favorable penetration.

we turn finally to the financial prospects for cable when copyright fees are required. The predominant effect of Schedule

3, the statutory fees proposed in 9.644, is to reduce the financial

rate of return on total capital a full percentage point for profitable

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# = minimum originator facilities and no advertising revenue.

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