Mr. DODD. I would say, with our present acreage of wheat in the country, I do not believe you could have a bad enough condition to where you would not have more wheat than you could use in this country.

Mr. CASE. That is for 1 year ahead?

Mr. DODD. That is for 1 year ahead; that is right. If you go back to the 1920's, I guess it would average about 100,000,000 all through that period.

Mr. CASE. All through the 1920's?

Mr. DODD. Starting with the marketing year 1919-20, it was 85,000,000; the next year it was 170,000,000; the next year it was 124,000,000; the next year it was 96,000,000. Then it ran 132, 137, 108, 97, 109, and 113. It just ran along about 100,000,000.

Mr. CASE. What was it in the 1930s?

Mr. DODD. In the 1930s, starting with 1930-31, it was 291; the next year it was 313, the next year 375, the next year 378. That is when we were having big yields and they could not sell.

Mr. MAHON. And they were burning wheat out there as fuel. Mr. DODD. Yes; and burning corn because it was cheaper than coal. That was the year when we could not get the wheat prices up anywhere near the cost of production. Then it pulled down in the year 1937-38 to 83,000,000 and then was built up during the war, and we built up the supplies because all of the markets were closed and because there was a deliberate attempt to maintain the maximum production so as to use it for feeding livestock. We fed more than half a billion bushels of wheat to cattle, hogs, and chickens. We went up to a peak of 631,000,000, and then came on down to 317,000,000, 279, 100, and 84. We were down to a carry-over last year which is just a little less than we had the year before.

That is why I said there was no such thing as a normal carry-over. When you got into the late 1920's and we were beginning to get above 100,000,000 and moving up, prices went on down.

Mr. MAHON. In other words, as to whether it is normal, if you have a depression on, maybe 300,000,000 bushels would be normal.

Mr. CASE. If you got that, you probably would have a depression. Mr. DODD. You surely would. That is a good statement. Because in normal times we cannot afford to have a carry-over of 300,000,000 unless you have provision for putting it away so that it would not affect the market. I think we should always keep a reserve in this country of about a third of a year's production in both corn and wheat. Mr. CASE. A third of a year's production?

Mr. DODD. I think that is the minimum we ought to carry over, and I think it can be done. I think you can carry corn in the cribs on the farms and can carry wheat back on the farms in country elevators. Mr. CASE. You mean to insure that we have a supply of seed?

Mr. DODD. To assure that we have a stable market; because then, if you get a little drought, floods, or other things, we do not have a terrible disruption in prices.

Mr. CASE. Of course, 150,000,000 bushels is considerably less than a third.

Mr. DODD. That is right; but given normal times, if we ever get that way again, I would like to see a carry-over of about a third of the 800,000,000 bushels of wheat we need in this country for seed, feed, and food.

Mr. STEFAN. Are you recommending the release of this 150,000,000 bushel carry-over in view of the reports on the coming crop?

Mr. DODD. Yes; I think that would be a fair thing to do.

The CHAIRMAN. If we knocked off 50,000,000 of it, that would be about the right figure.

Mr. DODD. That is right.

The CHAIRMAN. Because if we knocked it all off, wheat would shoot. Those manipulating the market would shoot it up.

Mr. DODD. If you take 50,000,000 off, I think that is as much as it is safe to drop.

Mr. CASE. That is about what was in my mind on that. But I think when you get down to 82,000,000, you are gambling a little on the future.

Mr. DODD. I do not believe we could get down that low. I do not think it is physically possible to move that far down now. It is too late in the year.

Mr. CASE. The seed picture is pretty well taken care of, of course. Mr. DODD. That is all over.

Mr. CASE. The winter what is already by.

Mr. DODD. Yes; and for the spring wheat, of course, the preparation for seed is all over.

Mr. CASE. Pretty nearly everybody knows where he is going to get it. Mr. DODD. That is right. We have to keep in mind that the local small mills cannot keep enough wheat for flour, and the big terminal mills have to have a supply of wheat. But I agree with the chairman. If we can cut it down 50,000,000, that would be about the right figure. Mr. STEFAN. You mean to cut it down to 50,000,000?

Mr. DODD. No; to cut it down 50,000,000.

Mr. STEFAN. And leave 100,000 million carry-over?

Mr. DODD.And leave 100,000,000 carry-over; that is right.

Mr. CASE. You have to hit the thing both ways.

Mr. DODD. I think, too, there is no question but what these people need about every boatload of wheat we can get to them.

Mr. STEFAN. Fifty million would not affect the market much; would it?

Mr. DODD. I do not think so. I think whether you get rains or not in the Southwest is going to have the biggest influence on prices. The CHAIRMAN. And the prices are being figured more or less on the crop estimate you have put out.

Mr. DODD. Plus the carry-over.

The CHAIRMAN. Plus the carry-over that is required

Mr. DODD. That is right.

The CHAIRMAN. Now, you can juggle your carry-over a little without raising too much hob with your market, but if you do too much, you are going to be in trouble.

Mr. DODD. I agree with that statement. The only thing is I think it is physically impossible—and I think the trade would soon find out it is physically impossible to move wheat down so that you could get below 100,000,000 carry-over.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. I suggest we take the suggestion of the gentleman from Texas (Mr. Mahon) and start with bread grains and coarse grains as the first item and see if we cannot make a little progress.

I notice under Austria you contemplate 568,100 metric tons import through ECA, to give them an available supply of 2,106,000 compared with 2,670,000 prewar and compared with 1,666,000 in 1947–48.

What is the population of Austria, and what does that give you in calories?

Mr. NORTHRUP. I can talk to you in terms of supply per capita.
Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. All right.

AVAILABLE SUPPLY IN POUNDS PER CAPITA OF SELECTED FOODS AND OTHER ITEMS BY PARTICIPATING COUNTRIES

Mr. NORTHRUP. No; I am mistaken. The table we have is for Europe as a whole. If you want that on a per capita basis for each country rather than for Europe as a whole, I will have to furnish it for the record.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. I wish you would furnish it for each country. Mr. NORTHRUP. On a per capita basis?

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Yes.

Mr. NORTHRUP. I will be glad to do that.

(The information is as follows:)

Available supply in pounds per capita of selected foods and other items, by participat

ing countries

PER-CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS AVAILABLE FROM IMPORTS
PRODUCTIONS FOR ALL COUNTRIES

AND

Mr. MAHON. Generally speaking, for all of the countries, about what would it be?

Mr. NORTHRUP. For all countries, for all grains, for 1948-49, the per-capita consumption available on the basis of this import plus their own production would give them a per-capita supply of 638 pounds, which is about 87.9 percent of the prewar and 119 percent of the current

year.

PROPORTION OF GRAINS IN GERMAN DIET TO OTHER WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES UNDER PROGRAM

Mr. CASE. Does that mean you are going to give them the same per capita in Germany as in these other countries?

Mr. NORTHRUP. Not necessarily.

Mr. CASE. Let us get that exact. What I want to know is whether or not that means you are going to give them 100 percent in these other countries and somewhat considerably less than 87.9 percent to Germany.

Mr. NORTHRUP. I will have to work the table up for you and break the figure I just quoted down to each country on a per-capita basis. Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Are all of the increases compared with 1947 to come from ECA shipments?

Mr. NORTHRUP. No; that is the total available.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. But you are putting 568.1 and there is an over-all increase of about 400 or a little less than 400.

Mr. NORTHRUP. In that column, the 568.1 is not an amount for which we are responsible; it is my understanding that column is the residual amount that may be financed out of this appropriation. We can talk to you in terms of total imports for these countries in the various places.

Mr. CASE. I saw Dr. Fitzgerald shaking his head when you were talking about the per capita on grain, and I was wondering whether he was disagreeing with what we were getting or if something additional should be said on that.

Dr. FITZGERALD. I have no disagreement at all, but I think you asked the question specifically about Germany.

Mr. CASE. Yes. When you take the average of all populations together and say it is going to give a certain average for all of them, that is all right, if they are all getting the same distribution; but if you give one a horse and one a rabbit, it is not.

Dr. FITZGERALD. In the case of Germany, the proportion of wheat and other grains in the German diet will be, on the average, larger than in most of the other western European countries. Since the American taxpayer is footing the bill, we are trying to put in there the cheapest cost diet, which is largely grain. They are well below the average in fats and oils and meats and other food items and well above the average of western Europe in grain. If I had to make a guess, I would say, in terms of prewar per capita consumption of Germany, this 87.9 would be, perhaps, 110. I would like to verify that figure, but it is somewhere in that neighborhood.

Mr. STEFAN. Taking Mr. Vory's figure of 1,800 calories, does that have anything to do with the additional amount going into Germany? Mr. NORTHRUP. Yes; he is taking that into account, I am sure. Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. What is the population of Austria?

Dr. FITZGERALD. About 7.4 million.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Are there any questions on the Austrian grain item?

CONTEMPLATED CALORIE DIET FOR AUSTRIA

Mr. CASE. What does that contemplate, so far as the calorie diet in Austria is concerned?

Mr. NORTHRUP. I will furnish that for the record. Will it be satisfactory, in furnishing that, to give it either on a per capita or a calorie basis?

Mr. CASE. I think what you are getting at is that the diet is figured in terms of calories; is it not?

Mr. NORTHRUP. We will try to give it to you in calories, if we can. Do you want it in calories for each kind of food, or the total?

Mr. DODD. It has to be in total calories.

Mr. CASE. Just what diet level you are figuring for the country, whether 1,550, 1,800, 2,200, or what.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. If they give us the per capita break-down for each of the food items and the over-all calories for each country, would not that cover it?

Mr. NORTHRUP. That is what you want?

Mr. CASE. And, if you propose to make a distinction between the calorie diet for the civilian population and the displaced persons' population.

Mr. NORTHRUP. In Germany?

Mr. CASE. Well, we are talking about Austria.

Mr. NORTHRUP. I do not believe there is any break-down analysis of these figures in those terms.

Mr. CASE. When I was in Austria once upon a time, there was a good deal of complaint among the Austrian people because the target diet was maintained for the people in the DP camps and the directive forbade them to work, whereas the Austrians got a lesser diet unless they were engaged in certain activities, and I was just wondering whether we were maintaing that.

Mr. NORTHRUP. I see the point of our question, and it is a very good question. I think the competent witness on that would be somebody who is suggesting that kind of program.

Mr. STEFAN. The IRO would have to give you that, because the DP's are the entire responsibility of the IRO, or the International Relief Organization. I do not think you could give that.

Mr. NORTHRUP. That is right.

Mr. STEFAN. I know what he is talking about. He is talking about the expelees and the regular population.

Mr. NORTHRUP. I do not think we have any way of getting at that ourselves.

Mr. CASE. Do these figures contemplate supplying food for the IRO? Mr. NORTHRUP. No.

Mr. CASE. Where does the IRO get the food, then, when dealing with Austria?