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TABLE A. --Estimated United States production, total exports, and exports to ERP and other countries, 1948-49

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1 Germany GARIOA program included in exports to ERP.

2 This figure includes oilseeds shipped as seeds, amounting to about 48,000 metric tons. The 150.000 tons shipped as oilcake and meal are used in determining percentages. 3 This figure represents farm weight and is equivalent to about 699,000 metric tons, export weight.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. As a preliminary to the grain discussion, on the right of the table just referred to, the first item on D-4, in the over-all break-down, entitled "Bread Grain and Coarse Grains," the amount is shown as 957,200,000 ECA obligations for 12 months.

ESTIMATED TOTAL GRAIN PRODUCTION IN UNITED STATES

Does that 957,200,000 correspond with the 137,600,000 total grains appearing in column 1 of table A?

Mr. NORTHRUP. No.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. What does it represent?

Mr. NORTHRUP. The first column on table A is the estimated production in this country of all grains. You will note it states it is the estimated United States production.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. And you set up 137,600,000 total estimated production of all grains.

Mr. NORTHRUP. Yes.

ESTIMATED EXPORTS TO OCCUPIED AREAS

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. That does not include the 320,000 metric tons for export to Germany, does it?

Mr. NORTHRUP. Yes; that is included.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. It has brackets around it, but it is a part of the total.

Mr. NORTHRUP. Yes; that should have an explanation.

We inserted under the heading "exports under United States Army GARIOA program" for Germany, Japan, Ryukyus, and Korea the figures for those areas; and the figures you just read indicates the amount of the present estimate by the Army as going to Germany. However, the figures for Germany are included in the column before that, under ERP.

Mr. DODD. That is just a break-down of the figures.
Mr. NORTHRUP. That is correct.

ESTIMATED EXPORTS TO "ALL OTHER" AREAS

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. What is the large total, 3,011,000 tons under the column "all other"?

Mr. NORTHRUP. That is the estimated quantity of all grains that would be exported to all other areas in the world by the United States, other than the places shown in the table.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. In private commerce or through the ExportImport Bank?

Mr. NORTHROP. By different means.

Mr. DODD. By any means-grain that would be exported from this country.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Then you said there should be something added to that for imports, to show the total availability.

Mr. NORTHROP. That is what you asked for before lunch and I told you we would furnish it.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. You cannot give us at the present time what the total availability is?

Mr. NORTHROP. No; we would have to add to that figure of 137,600,000 the carry-over and imports.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. I think we had better let this go over, then, until we get the figures.

Mr. DODD. We will have the figures the first of the week on the total availability.

The CHAIRMAN. Do you think you can have those by Monday morning?

Mr. DODD. We will try. We can have part of them, and I know we can have all of them by Tuesday, particularly on the total availabilities. Mr. CASE. I would like to ask a question at this point.

LIMITATION ON AMOUNT OF WHEAT EXPORTS UNDER INTERIM AID

In the interim-aid bill, we had a limitation on the amount of wheat that might be shipped.

Mr. DODD. That is right.

Mr. CASE. What was that-150,000,000-bushel reserve?

Mr. DODD. That is the carry-over.

Mr. CASE. How is that working out?

Mr. DODD. It looks as though we are going to have more wheat than that left, because you do not dare ship down to those last 150,000,000 bushels.

Mr. CASE. Of course, at that time you had certain estimates of what the available supply was going to be.

Mr. DODD. That is correct.

Mr. CASE. And sometime after that it seems to me I saw some figures in which somebody was quoted as saying it looked as though the exports could be increased by 150 million bushels.

Mr. DODD. Yes; export figures have been increased, but the carryover of 150 million is still maintained. But at the time of interim aid legislation, you want to remember, we had a lot of dry country, particularly in the Southwest, where the wheat was seeded late and the crop was not made yet, and there was no way we would know for awhile.

Mr. CASE. That was one of the reasons why the limitation was put on-because the prospects for the winter wheat crop were not very good then?

Mr. DODD. That is right—because people were afraid we might not have enough.

PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT WHEAT CROP

Mr. CASE. Has that situation changed in the Southwest materially? Mr. DODD. It has changed a good deal.

Mr. CASE. Specifically, how much?

Mr. DODD. We won't know until May 10.

Mr. CASE. But you have the percentage of normal of the wheat crop prospect, have you not?

Mr. DODD. No; we do not do that way. Over the north central part of the country, through what we call the soft red wheat belt, the conditions are very, very good. In Montana and the Pacific Northwest the conditions are probably the best they have been in 20 years. In the Southwest, where they had a late start, we got ample rains during the winter, but because the wheat plant was small, it did not get much growth.

The CHAIRMAN. And they did not have the acreage down there.. Mr. DODD. We did not have the acreage down there we would have had if they had had normal moisture.

The CHAIRMAN. You did not have the acreage you had last year? Mr. DODD. That is correct-in that country, but in total we got probably the largest acreage or one of the largest acreages of winter wheat that we ever had. Since that time, conditions have continued good, except there have been dry times. You know what happens when they do not have rain on the wheat acreage; the ground crusts and it kills the blades a little bit and the wheat is pretty scattered. But yesterday and the day before yesterday they got a good rain over that entire area, and the prospects today are better than they were yesterday and were better yesterday than they were the day before.

Mr. MAHON. Does that include the Panhandle area?

Mr. DODD. Yes; that includes the Panhandle area. They got all the way from good showers up to 2 inches of rain.

Mr. CASE. Could you translate that into bushels?

Mr. DODD. It would be awfully hard to translate it into bushels. Mr. CASE. I mean not as to bushels, except as to what would be a reasonable carry-over if at the time that action was taken 150 million bushels looked as if that was what we should have for a safe reserve, as to how the situation has changed.

Mr. DODD. When we got the January 1 stock reports, we found there was more wheat on the farms than we had anticipated. The complete stock reports will be out this afternoon at 3 o'clock, and then we will have the total picture.

The CHAIRMAN. Well, it is 3 o'clock now, and if you know what it is, you can tell us.

Mr. DODD. I will have to call up and find out what it is.

The CHAIRMAN. Now, the figure of next year's crop estimates of the Department were 860 million bushels about 10 days ago. Mr. DODD. That is right-of winter wheat.

The CHAIRMAN. Yes. They cannot estimate the spring wheat? Mr. DODD. Not until May. May 10 will be our first estimate on spring wheat.

The CHAIRMAN. Well, that would be a wild guess, because that would be just after the first planting.

Mr. DODD. But if the ground is in good shape-let us say you have good moisture and the crop went in in good shape, and they had good showers and the wheat made a good start and assuming we have a normal wheat year, you know roughly where you are coming out, of

course.

Mr. CASE. How does that 860 million bushel prospect of winter wheat compare to a year ago?

Mr. DoDD. It is smaller than a year ago, because last year was an all-time record.

Mr. CASE. How much smaller?

The CHAIRMAN. Three hundred million.

Mr. DODD. No: that is 300 million smaller total wheat production. The CHAIRMAN. Three hundred million less than last year?

Mr. DODD. Last year for winter wheat we had 1,067,970.000 bushels. On April 1, we anticipated a crop of approximately 860,000,000; on

May 10, when we get our report, that will take into account the recent showers and the past month's weather. Whether this figure goes up or down would be anybody's guess. My guess, as an individual, would be that the estimate will be higher.

ADVISABILITY OF RETAINING LIMITATION RELATING TO RESERVE OF WHEAT

Mr. CASE. What I was getting at was whether or not we would be warranted, when we come to report this bill, if the committee so felt, in making some change in that reserve and still preserve the position which it appeared would be preserved at the time we took that action.

Mr. DODD. I think you would have every reason to take off the 150,000,000 carry-over restriction. I do not think there is any question about that. We already have prospects of a crop which is much larger.

The CHAIRMAN. How much would wheat jump if we did it?
Mr. DODD. I do not think it would make much difference.

The CHAIRMAN. Would it jump 25 cents?

Mr. DODD. I do not think it would. Wheat dropped a nickel yesterday, and I think every time there is rain in the Southwest in the next month you are going to see wheat drop again, and you may have more wheat down there than can easily be moved.

The CHAIRMAN. If you have that, there is no sense in touching the limitation.

Mr. DODD. Of course, as to the 150,000,000, there is no question but what it puts a brake on the market.

Mr. CASE. Of course, that is less than the carry-over we used to have normally.

Mr. DODD. No.

Mr. CASE. What used to be the normal carry-over?

Mr. DODD. I do not know that there is any such animal, because we have gone down about as low as 40,000,000 at one time, years ago, and down as low as 55 to 85 million in a half dozen other years.

Mr. CASE. But when we went down to 82,000,00 a year or so ago, people were alarmed.

Mr. DODD. No; I would not say anybody was alarmed.

Mr. CASE. I thought members of the House Committee on Agriculture were alarmed.

Mr. DODD. The grain trade was not alarmed, because they refused to buy wheat, and when the early harvest came in wheat prices were all below today's price.

Mr. CASE. Did not we run a carry-over of 200,000,000 bushels for many years?

Mr. DODD. I suppose the average has been pretty nearly 200,000,000 bushels.

Mr. CASE. So that the 150,000,000 was less than the average carryover?

Mr. DODD. Most times we did not want to keep 200 million, but we were forced to.

Mr. CASE. I recognize that; but when you cannot predict seasons and yields with any security very far ahead, a certain amount of carry-over tends to keep your economy going with some semblance of stability.

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