Mr. DODD. Our figure is 475,000,000 that we would safely be able to export. We could export 475,000,000.

The CHAIRMAN. You said:

By way of comparison, our current program for this year-1947-48-calls for the export of 556,000,000 bushels of grain while last year we exported about 575,000,000 bushels.

Mr. DODD. That is for this year, we are shipping 556,000,000 bushels. A year ago we shipped 575,000,000 bushels. We think next year 475,000,000 bushels would be a safe figure. That is 100,000,000 less than a year ago and 75 or 80 million less than this current year.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Out of what over-all production? Does your statement show that somewhere?

Mr. DODD. It shows it in the tables. I do not believe I have set it out in my statement, but it shows it in the tables. It is about 5 percent of our total production.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. For the ensuing year?

Mr. DODD. Yes, sir.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Then 475,000,000 bushels is roughly 5 percent of the anticipated over-all production?

Mr. DODD. The anticipated over-all production; that is correct. Mr. MAHON. But it would be only fair to say that a much larger percentage than 5 of our total wheat production would be exported, would it not?

Mr. DODD. If we had 1,100,000,000 bushels of wheat-I think the winter crop estimate on April 10 plus a reasonable spring wheat crop would give about 1,100,000,000 total

The CHAIRMAN. You do not mean that the grain production is something like 10,000,000,000 bushels?

Mr. DODD. Normally the corn crop is something above 3,000,000,000. Then you have your oats crop, a billion and a half, something over a billion in wheat, and you have your barley production and the others. It is a little better than 5 percent of our total.

The CHAIRMAN. I think it is stretching it a little.

Mr. DODD. Mr. Chairman, what I meant by the 5-percent statement is that the grain that we have in here for the European nations (the 475,000,000 does not all go to European nations) would be about 5 percent of our grain crop.

The CHAIRMAN. Then all of the 475,000,000 bushels would not go to Europe?

Mr. DODD. No; you have South America and India and China and the Philippines and Hawaii, and so forth.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. I thought you told me that the 475,000,000 bushels was 5 percent of the anticipated over-all production? Mr. DODD. I am sorry I left that impression.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. What is the fact?

Mr. DODD. The grain that we anticipate would go to Europe, which is about 60 percent of the total amount of all shipments, is about 5 percent of our total grain production.

be

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. In other word, your over-all exports would

Mr. DODD. Four hundred and seventy-five million of which about 60 percent is in the European figures and the other 40 percent would go to other countries than ERP countries.

Mr. MAHON. Then the total export of grain would be in the range of 10 percent?

Mr. DODD. It would be a little less than 10 percent, 8.8 or 9 percent, something like that.

Mr. WIGGLESWORTH. Nine percent over-all?

Mr. DODD. Yes.

Mr. NORTHROP. The figure is 8.4 percent of the total production.
Mr. DODD. I am told that 8.4 percent is about the correct figure.

Another significant increase is in the estimate of shipments from the U. S. S. R. The new estimate is based on new knowledge of agreements and commitments made by the Soviet Union since last fall, several of which will not be carried out until after July 1.

There is also a 9,000,000-bushel increase in the Canadian figure, which reflects the Canadian Government's recent appraisal of their wheat prospects.

Our over-all estimate last fall that the world grain picture for 1948-49 would be some better than it has been in the present year continues to look like a sound conclusion. Western European crop prospects are better, Australia has harvested a record crop, Argentina is shipping more, and increasing quantities of grain are beginning to move out of eastern Europe. However, even if the present prospects materialize, there will be a sizable grain deficit in western Europe.

In appraising these improvements in the grain picture it must be remembered that much of western Europe's agriculture is built around livestock production and is basically dependent on imported feed supplies. So far, emphasis has necessarily been on grain for human consumption. But we hope, as the program progresses, that feed supplies will be sufficient to allow western Europe to rebuild its meat and milk production.

BEANS AND PEAS (PULSES)

An increase of about 18 percent-or some 92,000 tons-has been estimated in imports into western Europe of beans and peas. Of this increase 47,000 tons are from the United States. This is due to revisions of our estimates of United States exports needed by nonparticipating countries based on recent world supply figures. It does not involve any change in the total exports of beans and peace from this country.

FATS AND OILS

The over-all change from the original figures on fats and oils is not very significant. This still remains one of the major items in tight world supply. We have indicated a decrease of about 66,000,000 pounds in estimated exports from the United States to participating countries.

This is largely based on the decrease in our lard production. The United States is not a substantial exporter of fats and oils and exports of this size would be only 2.6 percent of our total expected production. These exports will be more than offset by imports into the United States from other areas.

SUGAR

For the first time since the end of the war it now appears that sugar supplies in the exporting nations are adequate to furnish all that importing nations are willing to buy with their scarce foreign exchange. Cuba is now harvesting another bumper crop which may equal last year's record. This improvement in the world prospects explains in part the increase in the import figures shown in table 2. Part of it is also due to the fact that Europe's sugar beet harvest, which was completed in early winter, was not quite as large as expected.

MEAT

Though there are no significant changes in the meat figures, we should possibly reemphasize the fact that the United States does not plan to export any meat to Europe-other than a little horsemeatexcept that taken by the Army for military purposes. The world meat situation promises to continue tight for some time.

OTHER COMMODITIES

For the other commodities the changes from the estimates of last fall are not significant in the total food picture. Mention might be made, however, of a fairly substantial increase in Europe's own production of certain dairy products. This estimated increase reflects very largely the favorable pastures during this last winter in western Europe, which enabled many countries to hold the level of dairy cows above the number envisioned last fall when the size of the grain reduction became evident.

You will note that the United States plans to furnish the participating nations with sizable quantities of processed milk, whereas, prewar we shipped them practically none. Part of the increase is condensed and evaporated whole milk which we take off the market during flush seasons. But the great majority of it is nonfat dry milk powder. This has an interesting explanation. Before the war many of our farmers separated their milk at home and sold only the cream. In recent years this practice has greatly decreased. Commercial concerns buy the whole milk, and if they take out the fat for butter purposes, use the rest to make nonfat dry milk powder. We have much more of this powder than we need at home, and it is making an important contribution to the European diets. It has not, however, begun to offset Europe's own low milk production. Per-capita supplies of total dairy products in western Europe are still far below prewar.

Although our revised estimates show a substantial decrease in export of eggs from this country, this has been more than offset by an increase in the estimate of Europe's own egg production. Poultry and egg production has become considerably more profitable in certain European countries in recent months and this has brought about an increase in chicken numbers.

At this point I am sure you will wish to know something about the Department's views concerning those foods and other agricultural commodities which we produce in this country in amounts sufficient to allow for a substantial export market and which are now in rela

tively adequate supply. At the moment this includes such commodities as dried fruits, certain fresh fruits, tobacco, and cotton. Our revised estimates of availabilities of these commodities have not changed significantly from those made last fall. These estimates have been made on two basic assumptions-first, that we would endeavor to meet at least the stated requirements in the original Paris report for these commodities; and, second, that this program would provide a reasonable resumption of export trade to Europe for these United States commodities which historically have enjoyed a substantial European market. We know, of course, that European nations need sizable amounts of these commodities from us, and would like to buy them, if they have sufficient dollars.

To aid you in evaluating the indicated quantities of exports of these commodities I might mention that the figures for both dried and fresh fruits are about the same as these countries took from us before the war, but somewhat higher than recent years. The tobacco figures are about the same as recent years a period during which no United States tobacco was exported to occupied areas. Plans for small shipments to occupied areas are included in the figures before you. As to cotton, United States exports of this size will give us just about the same portion of the western European market that we had before the the war.

The Congress, in Public Law 472, section 112, has prescribed a fairly precise procedure under which both the Secretary of Agriculture and the Economic Cooperation Administrator shall proceed in programing exports of commodities such as these. A sincere attempt will, of course, be made by the Department of Agriculture and also, I'm sure, by the Economic Cooperation Administration, to analyze the needs and desires for each of the European countries in light of the intent of Congress with respect to these commodities, so that proper amounts of such commodities may be made available.

TIMBER

Timber is a key item needed by the European nations for the rehabilitation of railroads, freight cars, and other transportation structures; for pit props in the coal mines; and for the rehabilitation of factories. Most of its import needs will have to be met from countries other than the United States. The figures before you for shipment from the United States to participating countries have not been changed since our earlier estimates. They involve only between 1 and 2 percent of our expected production.

Now a word about farm machinery and fertilizer. These are the two major items which we will supply to help Europe restablish its own agriculture, and, hence, relieve some of the pressure on us for food. So they deserve particular emphasis.

FARM MACHINERY

The Department of Commerce is the major source of Government information on farm machinery. They have some recent estimates on production in this country and the export picture which they will give you tomorrow. I would, however, like to add a footnote to their statement.

As has been pointed out before, we reduced the machinery-import requirements drawn up by the Paris conference very drastically. For the first year of the program we cut them more than 50 percent. It is now estimated that in the next 15 months the United States will export about 8 or 9 percent of its 1948 estimated production of farm machinery, including industrial tractors, to the ERP countries and their dependent overseas territories. Though this is more than we sent to those countries last year, the increase should be more than offset by expansions in the manufacturing-plant capacity in this country. So our farmers should actually get more new machinery next year than they have been getting. I can tell you from personal observations that adequate kinds and amounts of farm machineryand particularly repair parts-can make all the difference in the world in the rate of European agricultural rehabilitation.

Mr. MAHON. You said that we would export 8 or 9 percent of our farm-machinery production to ERP countries?

Mr. DODD. That is right.

Mr. MAHON. Could you add at this point what the percentage would be of our total farm-machinery export to all countries?

Mr. DODD. About 24.5 percent. That would include South America and the Far East.

Mr. MAHON. How does that compare with last year and prewar? Mr. DODD. Mr. Northrup can look up that figure and give it to you in a moment.

Mr. KEEFE. Do I understand that the figure is approximately 25 percent of our production which represents our total exports to all countries?

Mr. DODD. To all the world; that is correct.

Mr. STEFAN. When were those figures changed?

The CHAIRMAN. They were not changed.

Mr. STEFAN. He admits that the Commerce Department is the source of his information on farm machinery and I read into the record on yesterday a statement from the Commerce Department. Someone has said that that figure was changed from 25 percent to 8 percent. Here we have a figure of 24.5 percent.

Mr. DODD. I think it is 8 percent to ERP countries.

Mr. STEFAN. When was that changed?

Mr. DODD. It has not been changed as far as we are concerned. Mr. CAWLEY. Mr. Stefan, I have two representatives here from the Department of Commerce and if you would like to delve into that matter at this time, I can call them in.

The CHAIRMAN. We will not get into that until Mr. Dodd finishes his statement. We will get into that in detail after a little while, but I do not think we ought to interrupt further the general statement. Will you proceed, Mr. Dodd?

Mr. DODD. We have worked very closely wih our farm-machinery industry in preparing these export estimates. As presently planned, we will only ship such machinery as the farmers of France and England and the other western European countries will buy through normal trade channels. This is no Government distribution program. The figures presented represent in part what our manufacturers, with years of experience in the European field, think the European farmers will need and buy, and in part what those manufacturers think they