get scientific knowledge that is not available now, even on the small satellites that we are sending up. How far ahead of us would you say the Soviets are in propulsion power, in the development-let me ask you this question: What propulsion power did it take to send their last instrument up into space?

Dr. GLENNAN. Here again I think that honest men differ in their estimates of this. Dr. Stewart, who can speak for himself, says that if they are very sophisticated in their use of these devices, that it might take only 250,000 to 500,000 pounds of thrust. Others have graded this up from half a million to a million pounds of thrust. I expect I am a little bit in this latter camp.

Now, we ought to be, as I think I have testified, in a position within some 18 months, 18 months to 2 years, to send into orbit the sort of payloads and even more than they presently have done.

Mr. McCORMACK. Where do you expect they will be then?

Dr. GLENNAN. I expect if they think it is important to increase their payloads, I would expect that they should have progressed as well. But it seems to me, Mr. McCormack, that the genius of this Nation has been in its industrial development, in its ability to get on with jobs of this kind. What has been done in this past year is little short of miraculous, from a standing start, in effect. And I have no hesitancy in predicting, if I may use that term, that we will close this gap. But not knowing what pace the Russians are operating at, except that I think they are diligent about it, I don't presume to be able to guess that we will be matching them, if indeed we should be matching them within 3 years.

Mr. McCORMACK. I will agree that we shouldn't follow them. On the other hand, you can't ignore what they are doing. Is that right? Dr. GLENNAN. Under no circumstances.

Mr. McCORMACK. It is a relative situation.

Dr. GLENNAN. That is right, sir.

Mr. McCORMACK. Right across the board.

Dr. GLENNAN. That is right, sir; and in many other fields.

Mr. McCORMACK. Have you any expectation they will send a man

into space this year?

Dr. GLENNAN. I just don't know.

Mr. McCORMACK. Beg pardon?

Dr. GLENNAN. I just don't know, sir.

Mr. McCORMACK. You wouldn't

Dr. GLENNAN. I wouldn't put it past them.

Mr. McCORMACK. In other words, you wouldn't be surprised if they did?

Dr. GLENNAN. No, I don't think I would.

Mr. McCORMACK. Our program for that is several years off, isn't it? Dr. GLENNAN. Yes, it is.

Mr. McCORMACK. That is all for now.

The CHAIRMAN. Mr. Fulton.

Mr. FULTON. Following Mr. McCormack's line of questioning, obviously when there are so many fields of various kinds, it is like comparing horses and rabbits and chickens and ducks and saying, overall, which is the best species or which is or which is most advanced in the development of intelligence, is that not right? Dr. GLENNAN. Yes, sir.

Mr. FULTON. So that it is not really logically or intellectually possible to say who is ahead between Russia and the United States, or the free world, unless you say what kind of a program is involved and what the object is, is that not right?

Dr. GLENNAN. That is right, sir.

Mr. FULTON. And on many programs we are very much ahead of them because we have very sophisticated instrumentation and have done a lot more than they have?

Dr. GLENNAN. That is right.

Mr. FULTON. While on others we have not emphasized weight and things of that type; is that not right?

Dr. GLENNAN. That is right, sir.

Mr. FULTON. Then can you give us some estimates on worldwide television, for example. How soon will we have that for peacetime uses or military uses?

Dr. GLENNAN. Mr. Fulton, could I ask Dr. Dryden to speak to that? Mr. FULTON. And Dr. Stewart, anyone of you.

Dr. DRYDEN. This, again is a

Mr. FULTON. If you would give your estimate first and then explain, because I have four questions on this point. You just give an estimate as to your programing, and then the explanation about it, really very briefly.

Dr. DRYDEN. A guess, and it is hardly more than a guess, would be 4 or 5 years.

Mr. FULTON. No, I want your estimate. How about you, Dr. Stewart.

Dr. STEWART. Well

Mr. FULTON. I am talking of your long-range program, so I don't want guesses.

Dr. STEWART. To answer your question, I must do it in two pieces. First is the program we are starting which does call for some initial tests, hopefully within a year of this date.

On the other hand, there is a lot of work to go on and I think the 4- or 5-year number is a reasonable estimate of the time at which this might become of practical significance.

Mr. FULTON. So that experimentally within a year and practically within 4 to 5 years on radio and television worldwide communications? Dr. STEWART. The problems are the same in both. With the approach we are using, the same equipment applies to both problems. Mr. FULTON. Will that come earlier than the worldwide television programs?

Dr. STEWART. The particular approach which we are taking here handles both of them in the same manner and one will come just as quickly as the other.

Mr. FULTON. All right. On hurricane and weather predicting, how soon will you have that for a 30-day period in advance?

Dr. STEWART. This is a very long-term problem. It may be a very long-term problem.

Mr. FULTON. All right. Will you tell me the time and then explain? Dr. STEWART. I would say there is a very real question as to whether 30 days may ever happen. I taught meteorology for a number of years through World War II.

Mr. FULTON. I have just finished a course of it in the Navy. So I am curious

Dr. STEWART. And we used to discuss with the students the problems of forecasting and we recognized then that one of the greatest deficiencies of forecasting came from the fact that we had no detailed knowledge of the outer structure of the earth's atmosphere and then in addition we had defective knowledge of much of the surface conditions.

Mr. FULTON. To clear it up, we have already had some forecasting, because we have found some incipient hurricanes forming and told the people about them. How quickly will you put into practical use what you have now?

Dr. STEWART. Again an initial experiment is scheduled for the Vanguard.

Mr. FULTON. When is that?

Dr. STEWART. Within the month, we hope.

Mr. FULTON. So that we will very quickly be putting into practical use experiments on weather forecasting, particularly with regard to hurricane development, is that right?

Dr. STEWART. But the problem

Mr. FULTON. Just answer the question, please.

Dr. STEWART. Yes, this is right.

Mr. FULTON. All right. Man in space when will the X-15 be in actual flight operation under its own operation and not just a drop? When is that scheduled for? Give me the time and then explain. Dr. DRYDEN. The X-15 is always dropped from an airplane. Mr. FULTON. I understand that. But it is going to be without power to begin with.

Dr. DRYDEN. The first power applied is March or April; I don't have the dates in mind.

Mr. FULTON. Would you put that in the record? (The requested information is as follows:)

Hon. OVERTON BROOKS,

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION,
Washington, D.C., February 20, 1959.

Chairman, House Committee on Science and Astronautics,
House Office Building, Washington, D.C.

DEAR MR. BROOKS: During the testimony given by personnel of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration before your committee, additional information was requested by Congressman Fulton on the X-15 flight schedule. The information answering these questions is as follows:

The tentative flight operation for the X-15 to be dropped without power is tentatively set for March 10; subsequently dependent on the satisfactory operation of previous tests, the first test of the X-15 for a power drop is tentatively set for April 1.

During the second day of the hearings, February 3, Congressman Fulton requested additional information with respect to NASA's budget and programs. That information has been collected and is enclosed herewith.

I want to express again my appreciation for the opportunity of informing the members of your committee of the program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the progress made in connection with it.

Sincerely yours,

Dr. DRYDEN. Yes.

T. KEITH GLENNAN, Administrator.

Mr. FULTON. When is the drop without power?

Dr. DRYDEN. It is very shortly. It is scheduled very shortly.

Mr. FULTON. I understand it was scheduled for last Saturday. Has it been postponed?

Dr. DRYDEN. Yes, postponed for a time, yes.

Mr. FULTON. To what date?

Dr. DRYDEN. A couple of weeks, I don't remember exactly.

Mr. FULTON. All right. Will you put that in the record? All right. On man in orbit, what is the date you expect to put a man in orbit?

Dr. DRYDEN. When we are convinced we can get him back safely. It will be within a few years.

Mr. FULTON. All right. Give me the time, as a time. When do you program it? I am talking of your long-term programs, now, as to your timing.

Dr. DRYDEN. We program many orbital flights of the capsule. We will not at this time program the specific time when a man will go up there, because we must first be sure we can recover and locate the capsule, itself, with instruments, perhaps with animals, before we are willing to put a man in it. I cannot tell you when that will be.

Mr. FULTON. All right. The 6,000-pound payload you will have next year. Could the man be in there if you had these other things ready? Is that enough thrust to begin with and enough carrying capacity?

Dr. DRYDEN. We do not intend to wait for that. The booster in the first instance will be an Atlas booster.

Mr. FULTON. When do you expect to put a man on the moon in your long-range programs? Give me the date and then explain. By 1964, 1975, and could he be in the 2,000-pound payload to the moon, if other factors are favorable, by early 1961?

Dr. DRYDEN. 2,000 pounds to the moon and back would be very marginal to put a man in.

Mr. FULTON. So we really have to wait for the 10 tons of payload in orbit in 1962 and the 2 tons of payload in the deep space program? Dr. DRYDEN. You will have to wait for probably 6 million pounds thrust to do this with assurance.

Mr. FULTON. Now, give me the date of that?

Dr. DRYDEN. 10 to 15 years.

Mr. FULTON. So that would be 1969

Dr. DRYDEN. Before you venture onto the moon; yes.

Mr. FULTON. Before we attempt to put a man on the moon? Could you speed that up?

Dr. DRYDEN. We have a program which leads to this. There are many things that have to be done before you put a man on the moon, as you know.

Mr. FULTON. I am afraid if you get a man there, there is going to be someone already there, and if he asks if he can get on the moon, this man is going to say "Nyet" to him, he is not going to be able to get on.

Dr. DRYDEN. I don't think the problems are different anywhere in the world. We do have a program looking toward landings on the moon. We have not attempted to date this out month by month for 15 years. May I use an example? The very first satellite that we sent up discovered a new phenomenon in a world we never knew before,

the existence of a radiation belt which would give problems to man passing through it and to instruments used in it. We didn't know this before. This changes the whole aspect of the problem. Because if a man stays there very long, we must provide him with adequate shielding. Before we provide him with adequate shielding, we must know the composition of this radiation, how much of it is soft X-ray, how much hard. Now we expect as we go out into space we will discover other things, which must be taken into account before we send this man to the moon. I don't believe anyone can give you a certain date 15 years in the future.

Mr. FULTON. Thank you very much, all I wanted was target dates. That is all.

The CHAIRMAN. Thank you. I a.n going to call on Mr. Miller next, because I am going to ask him to go over to get permission for this committee to sit while the House is in session.

Mr. MILLER. No questions.

The CHAIRMAN. Mr. McDonough.

Mr. MCDONOUGH. Dr. Glennan, in reference to this question of a race with Russia, shouldn't we have to take into consideration the fact that we are operating as a democracy while they are operating as an autocracy or dictator-type of government in which they can demand from their scientific team certain target dates for things that we can't do in this country in the same manner?

Dr. GLENNAN. I think this is true, Mr. McDonough. We do believe, however, that once started, we really can move faster than they. Mr. MCDONOUGH. In other words, you are confident that we have the industrial capacity to produce the hardware once we write the specifications and know what we want?

Dr. GLENNAN. And the scientific talent to get on with the job.

Mr. MCDONOUGH. Could you inform the committee your schedule of probing shots, a variety of them, that you have scheduled for this year?

Dr. GLENNAN. We have scheduled about 40 sounding rocket probes that will go some distance into space for a variety of environmental

measurements.

We will probably launch as many as a dozen satellites or space vehicles, space probes, in this calendar year, and there may be double that number in 1960.

Mr. MCDONOUGH. Now, what is the variety of the thrust used? Are these lightweight probes?

Dr. GLENNAN. These are all lightweight probes, using the boosters that are available to us at the present time, the Thor, and the Jupiter, and the Atlas in one or two instances.

Mr. MCDONOUGH. Did you learn enough from the lunar probe that we sent up to what was the maximum, 89,000 miles?

Dr. GLENNAN. 71,300.

Mr. MCDONOUGH. Did we learn enough from that to be confident that the next shot will be successful? Was it a question of thrust or what was the failure?

Dr. GLENNAN. No. I think we learned a good bit from that experiment, and one always hopes that one can correct the things that went wrong. In this instance, as I recall it-well, I don't recall it very well.