Demographic activities The end of the fiscal year marked the culmination of a five-year development effort that established a major new program called the Survey of Income and Program Participation. This survey will provide important data on the economic situation of people in the United States. These statistics will improve estimates of income distribution, poverty, and health. Government officials can use the results to evaluate the efficiency of transfer programs, estimate future program costs and coverage, and assess the effects of welfare reform proposals, tax reform, social security reform, and other public policy issues. The Bureau publishes a number of reports each year that incorporate results from the monthly Current Population Survey. A few are one-time-only reports. Those receiving the closest attention in 1983 were households, families, marital status and living arrangements, estimating after-tax money income distribution, characteristics of households receiving noncash benefits, lifetime earnings for men and women, and three decades of change for American women. The Bureau also published national and state population projections in fiscal year 1983-information of major importance to planners and policymakers. Technology and methodology The agency's new large-scale computer is so successful that fiscal year 1983 production levels rose 35 percent over the previous all-time high, while charging rates dropped dramatically. Also, more timely data resulted from two other new systems used in the 1982 Economic and Agriculture Censuses. The Bureau has acquired and developed software packages that are more user-oriented, making it easier to automate many manual and labor-intensive operations for both technical and nontechnical professionals. The Bureau is working with the Interior Department's U.S. Geological Survey on activities that will contribute to improved geography in the 1990 census. Both agencies need automated cartographic data. Other activities include further development of a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system and a procedure for seasonal adjustment of time series that now is being used for many of the economic time series the Bureau publishes each month. Research continues to lead to advanced technology for future Bureau use in areas such as optical character reading, bar coding, video image capture, microtechnology, and electronic publishing. Public services The Bureau's State Data Center program now extends to 49 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Increasing numbers of data users have been turning to these statistical umbrella agencies, which the Bureau furnishes with its publications, computer tapes, microfiche, maps, and other selected products. The centers, which promote the availability of these products, have more than 200 state-level and 1,000 regional and local affiliates. This year saw 71 representatives from 34 states, the District, and Puerto Rico attend the third annual National State Data Center Conference. Bureau employees conducted 16 courses for data users on a variety of statistical topics and staffed exhibits promoting Bureau products at 34 national meetings of trade, professional, and minority organizations. Bureau staff also presented 33 seminars and workshops for the news media as well as 36 "Census Tables"-informal gatherings featuring Bureau staff and leading figures from outside the Bureau who specialize in the same fields. The Bureau's information services staff in the 12 regional offices conducted more than 500 workshops for some 14,000 data users, staffirig booths at more than 100 national or regional conventions, and making 40 other presentations to about 15,500 people. They visited about 1,300 organizations of all kinds and received about 113,000 inquiries from data users. The Bureau began an oral history project to document institutional memory by interviewing former directors and others who at one time held important positions. The 30,000 copies of the 103rd edition of one of the government's most popular publications, Statistical Abstract of the United States, sold out in four months. It was sold for the first time in some commercial bookstores. Two printings of the second edition of the State and Metropolitan Area Data Book also sold out. The Bureau continued to help people establish proof of their age and certain other permitted information from census records, a service supported entirely by the modest fee charged. International programs The Bureau continued to develop an expanded demographic, social, and economic data base for all countries of the world in response to the needs of several government agencies. The on-line system, to provide data by urban/rural residence, will be available to federal users next year. Work progressed toward the establishment of a Spanish language training program, a project requested by chief statisticians of the Latin American nations. The Bureau established a microcomputer research laboratory as part of a project to investigate the feasibility of placing such computers in the offices of developing countries. Over the year, enrollment averaged 100 foreign participants from 35 nations in the Bureau's program to train statisticians from developing countries and more than 200 visitors from around the world came to discuss census and survey programs. Bureau of Economic The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) measures and analyzes U.S. economic activity. It provides a clear picture of the economy through the development, preparation, and interpretation of the economic accounts of the United States. The accounts provide a quantitative view of the production, distribution, and use of the nation's output. The economic accounting framework established by BEA has become a mainstay of modern economic analysis; it deals with such key issues as economic growth, inflation, regional development, and the nation's role in the world economy. The accounts and policy-oriented analysis related to them play an influential role in the formulation of government and business policies. National income and product accounts provide a comprehensive view of the state of the economy and relationships among its major economic groups-consumers, business, government, and foreign. Gross national product (GNP), the market value of the nation's output of goods and services, is the cornerstone of the national income and product accounts. The accounts show the kinds of goods and services that make up GNP, and the kinds of income, such as personal income and profits, generated in its production. Measures of changes in the prices of the goods and services that make up GNP are also provided. Wealth accounts show the holdings of the nation's tangible wealth, including structures, equipment, inventories, and consumer durables. Estimates of the structures and equipment owned by business are crucial to the analysis of the nation's ability to produce goods and services. Input-output accounts show how industries interact-buying from and selling to each other-to produce GNP. These accounts provide a cross-sectional view of the economy that is especially useful for industry analyses and projections. Environmental accounts show the expenditures made by business, consumers, and government to protect the environment. Regional accounts detail economic activity by region, state, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA), and county. Estimates of per capita personal income by state and county are among criteria used to allocate federal revenue-sharing funds and other federal grants to state and local governments. BEA's projections of population, employment, personal income, and earnings by state and area are used by federal agencies, local government planners, and businesses to forecast public facility requirements and demand for goods. and services. Balance of payments accounts detail U.S. transactions with foreign countries and on the international investment position of the United States. These accounts contain estimates of the major types of international transactions, such as merchandise exports and imports, travel and transportation services, foreign aid, and private and official capital flows. This system of accounts is supplemented by various other tools for measuring, interpreting, and forecasting economic developments. BEA regularly surveys capital investment outlays and plans of U.S. business. It maintains a system of indicators to track business cycles. Econometric models are developed and operated to forecast short-and long-term changes in economic activity and to analyze the effects of alternative fiscal and monetary policies. The forecasts are prepared for use by the Secretary of Commerce, the Council of Economic Advisors, and policymakers in other federal agencies. While BEA provides policy-oriented analysis that focuses on spotting and diagnosing emerging economic problems and on alternative economic policies that might be used to deal with these problems; it does not provide policy advice. This restriction is essential to preserve BEA's reputation for objectivity. Most of BEA's work is published in its monthly journals: Survey of Current Business and Business Conditions Digest, both available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Survey of Current Business is the journal of record for most of the estimates of the national, regional, and international accounts. A monthly article analyzes recent and emerging economic developments. Special articles present findings from ongoing BEA programs and special research projects, which contribute to a better understanding of the economy. In addition, the Survey of Current Business contains a statistical section with more than 1,900 series from approximately 100 sources covering most aspects of the economy. Business Conditions Digest is designed for business cycle analysis. It contains charts and tables for 300 economic series-including the composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators-that provide insights into broad movements in the economy. A catalog of BEA publications and computer tapes is available from the Current Business Analysis Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. Accomplishments included: Revised estimates of the national income and product accounts between the first quarter of 1980 through the first quarter of 1983 were published in July 1983. This revision incorporates newly available source data and improved estimating procedures. Selected measures from the "flash" GNP estimates were published for the first time in September 1983. Previously these estimates, which are prepared 15 days before the end of the quarter, were released by BEA only to selected government officials. Expanded quarterly detail on national defense purchases in current and constant dollars and associated measures of price change were published in November 1982. Summary input-output tables for 1976, 1978, and 1979 were published in January 1983. For the comprehensive 1977 input-output tables, reconciliation of the sales and purchases data with published national income and product accounts data was started. Annual estimates of the stock of pollution. abatement equipment and structures owned by nonfarm, nonresidential business in the U.S. for 1960-82 were published. A methodology for estimating gross state product was developed, and experimental estimates for the years 1963, 1967, 1972, and 1977 were made. A report on ways to improve the methodology and the estimates was completed. An analysis of the pattern of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan area growth since 1959 was published. The incorporation of the results of the 1980 comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts into state and local income series was completed. Estimates of personal income, per capita personal income, and earnings by industry for states for 1980-82 and local areas for 1976-81 were published in April 1983. Annual state forecasts of output, income, and employment through 1990 were completed using BEA's state econometric model. Quarterly forecasts Quarterly forecasts of U.S. international transactions were prepared for interagency use. Comprehensive revisions of estimates of international fees and royalties transactions for 1978-82 were completed. And the results of the benchmark survey of foreign direct investment in the U.S. were published in October 1983 in Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 1980. A study of the feasibility of integrating national and industry forecasts was completed. An initial industry forecast integrated with a national forecast using BEA's quarterly econometric model was prepared along with an analysis of the results. Econometric forecasts were prepared on a regular basis for the use of federal policymakers. Long-range forecasts, some extending to the year 2000 and one to the year 2055, were provided to the National Commission on Social Security for use in developing its report to Congress. In addition, a number of special forecasts dealing with issues such as the impact on the U.S. economy of the recession abroad and energy tax alternatives were prepared. A revision of the composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators was published in March 1983. BEA Reports, which contains the information in BEA news releases, was first made available on a subscription basis in November 1982. This program saved BEA approximately $30,000 in printing and mailing costs in FY 1983. BEA developed new, general-purpose procedures to validate survey documents. And it developed computer software for use with the Government Printing Office computerized typesetting process. The use of this software eliminates a number of steps in the publication process and improves the accuracy of published materials. Public access to BEA's regional estimates has been improved by providing standard tabulation on microfiche and on magnetic tape. Bureau of Industrial The Bureau of Industrial Economics (BIE) is the basic source in government for industry-specific data, analysis, and research. Its industry specialists and economists combine sophisticated data development and economic expertise with a realistic understanding of the individual industries that make up the U.S. industrial economy. Principal clients for BIE's services are policymaking units of the federal government. Each month, BIE provides selected government officials an assessment of current industrial trends and developments, alerting them in advance to emerging problems and issues in the manufacturing and services sectors of the economy. The Bureau's work includes in-depth industry, cross-industry, and sectoral studies relating to such concerns as emergency preparedness, national defense, and the management of strategic resources. In addition to its support of domestic business development, BIE supports the trade expansion and trade administration responsibilities of the International Trade Administration, particularly with regard to international trade agreements and export/import concerns of domestic industries. BIE analysts evaluate industry data from a variety of sources, relate them to economic and policy factors, regulations, and trade developments, and report the analyses to both the executive and legislative branches of government and, when appropriate, to the business and financial community. BIE consists of six units: • Office of Basic Industries is responsible for metals and minerals, chemicals, construction, and forest products. • Office of Producer Goods is responsible for industrial equipment, transportation equipment, and scientific and electronics equipment. • Office of Consumer Goods and Service Industries is responsible for consumer product industries, wholesale and retail trade, and service industries. • Office of Research, Analysis, and Statistics performs analyses to support policy development needs of the Department and other government agencies. This includes the basic research needed to define the industrial environment over the next decade in light of demographic developments, patterns of natural resource supply, trade pressures, and other factors, to foresee the types of problems that could occur. In addition, this office compiles and maintains an industrial data base and econometric models for the use of BIE and for service to its clients. It provides or assists in acquiring specialized software needed for data processing, and obtains and processes statistics for Bureau projects and publications. • The Office of Regulatory and Federal Program Analysis performs research and analysis in support of the regulatory analysis mission of the Department and the President's Task Force on Regulatory Reform. Its staff provides economic and technical information on the consequences for industry of existing and proposed regulatory actions. • The Office of Publications operates the Bureau's reporting program. It publishes the annual U.S. Industrial Outlook, the Midyear Review of the Outlook, and the monthly Business Conditions Report, and assists in publishing the bimonthly Construction Review, staff papers, and other occasional reports. It also handles inquiries from government, business, and the general public on matters relating to BIE programs. In addition to providing analytic and statistical assistance to Commerce activities, BIE assisted other federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Federal Emergency Management Administration. The Bureau prepared the 17th Annual Report of the President to the Congress on the operation of the Automotive Products Trade Act of 1965 and an accompanying list of bona fide U.S. motor vehicle manufacturers, as required by the Act. It also provided information to the Senate and House offices, and to various Congressional committees on such matters as trade negotiations, current business conditions, defense spending, telecommunications, and the national stockpile. BIE continued its program of publishing staff papers presenting completed segments of ongoing research and analysis programs. One such paper concerns the effects of regulations on the international competitiveness of the U.S. petrochemicals industry. The 24th edition of the U.S. Industrial Outlook, an annual report of the microanalytic work of the Bureau, was published. The Outlook contains historical trends, a detailed year's outlook, and general five-year projections for individual industries. The number of industries included was expanded from 200 to more than 250 in the 24th edition. For the first time since the Outlook was published, the 1983 edition sold out with record high sales of more than 20,000 copies. BIE also published the bimonthly Construction Review, covering every aspect of the construction and building materials industry, and the annual Franchise Opportunities Handbook which identifies franchisers who claim they do not discriminate on the basis of race, color, or national origin. The Handbook provides general information on franchising, including the terms, requirements, and conditions under which the franchises are made available. The monthly Business Conditions Report (BCR) reports on significant events and issues affecting U.S. industry. The report circulates to about 400 senior government officials. Office of the Assistant This office is the principal source of analysis, advice and information on productivity, technological innovation, business performance, and strategic resources as they relate to public policy and the competitive performance of the U.S. economy. Within its jurisdiction falls the Office of Productivity, Technology, and Innovation, the National Technical Information Service, the Office of Competitive Assessment, and the Office of Strategic Resources. Office of Productivity, The Office of Productivity, Technology, and Innovation (OPTI) works to develop an improved public policy environment for advancing private sector productivity, technological innovation and business competitiveness. It identifies and eliminates barriers to productivity growth, provides essential business information and analysis to the private sector, increases incentives for the commercialization of federally-funded basic and applied research results, and increases awareness of productivity-enhancing technologies and methods. To improve private sector incentives for technological innovation, OPTI recommended policy initiatives to the President's National Productivity Advisory Committee, the Cabinet Councils, the White House Conference on Productivity, and senior Commerce officials. Initiatives included modifying antitrust laws for joint R&D, strengthening R&D tax incentives, developing private initiative concepts for human resources in such areas as worker training and industry transitions, and creating and evaluating total factor productivity measurement methods. Through OPTI, the government focuses on federal patent policy. One OPTI initiative resulted in a presidential memorandum directing federal agencies to expand contractor ownership of federally-funded inventions to all R&D contractors. This increases the availability of government-funded technology to the private sector for commercialization. Department-wide improvements in productivity policy and coordination of business services are carried out through a Productivity Steering Group administered by OPTI. In May 1983, OPTI conducted a major policy conference, "The New Climate for Joint Research," where government, academia, R&D administrators and business leaders shared information on opportunities and problems associated with R&D. To encourage private sector R&D, the Department launched the Industrial Technology Partnership (ITP) program. This program clarifies policy guidelines and provides information on the use of R&D Limited Partnerships (RDLPs) to fund later stage R&D for new products and processes without direct government funding. The RDLP is a method of financing R&D as an alternative to direct in-house funding, borrowing, or venture capital funding, and allows a scale of effort beyond the risk or cash-flow threshold of the individual companies involved. OPTI assists businesses interested in the formation of RDLPS by providing guidelines and advice, sponsoring educational forums and providing competitive assessment information on U.S. industries. So far, 1,500 requests for RDLP guidelines have been answered. Technical assistance has been provided to more than 50 sponsors interested in forming RDLPs. Productivity Center OPTI operates the Commerce Productivity Center as a national clearinghouse of "best practice" information and techniques for productivity improvement for U.S. business and government. The data base consists of more than 7,000 items from many sources, and more than 2,500 client requests for materials are filled annually. The most popular topics are: how to measure productivity, white collar productivity, the management of the quality process, the Japanese world of work, robotics, and computeraided design and manufacturing. Metric conversion OPTI also coordinates metric conversion within the federal government and provides information on the metric system. Working with the private sector, states and other government agencies, OPTI identifies and removes barriers to voluntary metric conversion and informs the private sector of the importance of providing metric products in the international marketplace. More than 3,000 requests for information were filled during the year. An Interagency Committee on Metric Policy formed by OPTI established a new federal procurement policy which permits suppliers to provide goods and services in metric measurement. National Technical Information Service The National Technical Information Service (NTIS) is a self-financing agency which stimulates innovation and productivity by channeling U.S. and foreign government-sponsored R&D and other specialized information to industry, small businesses, educational institutions, governments at all levels, and the general public. Its products and services improve the efficiency and effectiveness of U.S. R&D and increase the availability of foreign technical information to users in the United States. New information items added to its inventory during the year numbered 75,000. The total collection, exceeding 1,400,000 documents, includes 300,000 report titles of foreign origin. More than six million information products were distributed with total sales amounting to $25 million. Promotion of NTIS products and services is done through newsletters and catalogs, brochures to special groups, exhibits, and conferences. Office of Competitive The Office of Competitive Assessment examines the medium-to-long-range international competitiveness of specific U.S. industries. The first assessment, which examined the U.S. petrochemical industry, has been published after undergoing extensive review and discussion within government and industry. Assessments of the civil aircraft, advanced ceramics, telecommunications switching equipment, international construction, and information services industries have been completed and are at various stages of internal and external review. In addition, 13 preliminary assessments have been completed, which range from composites and engineering plastics to office automation equipment. Office of Strategic Resources The Office of Strategic Resources (OSR) was established in 1982 to address strategic materials issues. A Materials and Minerals Task Force conducted analyses for Department positions in such areas as Cuban nickel imports, acid rain policy options, and deep seabed mining. Through the Task Force, OSR prepared studies of the critical materials requirements of the U.S. aerospace and steel industries. During these studies, workshops were held with the National Bureau of Standards on materials substitution and conservation. OSR initiated a study to assess the quality of materials in the National Defense Stockpile and helped define and contribute to the Committee on Materials (COMAT) research and development inventory. In addition to policy briefings, the office |